Eddie Rice

The biggest story in real estate right now is not rates, inventory, or prices. It is the ceasefire, and here is why it changes everything for buyers who have been sitting on the sidelines.

When the conflict in the Middle East kicked off in late February, oil prices spiked, Treasury yields jumped, and the spring market essentially froze in place. But the two-week US and Iran ceasefire announced earlier this month has already pulled the 10-year Treasury yield back down and stabilized energy markets. That matters for one significant reason: mortgage rates follow the 10-year Treasury. When that yield comes down, your rate comes down with it.

Freddie Mac's chief economist Sam Khater is already calling this a positive development for homebuyers that could spark a stronger spring market than we saw last year. The buyers who went quiet in March are watching this closely, and a more stable backdrop tends to bring fence-sitters right back into showings fast. Add to that the fact that Bright MLS is reporting a historic rise in inventory, which means more choices and more room to negotiate the moment confidence returns.

If you paused your home search this spring, now is the time to take another look. The window is opening back up and buyers who move with the right strategy right now are going to be very well positioned.