Primrose Investment Group - Stifel

The Senate might consider data center legislation before it leaves Washington to campaign for the upcoming midterms. Some are skeptical about the prospects for the Ratepayer Protection Act (RPA). If the Senate blocks the bill, then it could reemerge in the lame duck session of Congress. However, the potential output during the lame duck session will depend on the election results and might not be overly productive.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/a7xW-A

Congress returns to Washington for a brief period ahead of the midterm elections. For investors, the big event this week could be a Senate vote on digital asset legislation.

Read more in this week's Potomac Perspective from Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist, Brian Gardner: https://livesocial.seismic.com/asBTI0

The House passed a spending bill that will fund the government through December 11. In doing so, it finished most of the legislative business through the November midterms. In this Potomac Perspective, Brian Gardner, Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist, takes a look at the few matters that might be considered by Congress in September as well as some items that are expected to be considered during the lame duck session.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/achpkL

The dog days of August may be providing a glimpse of what investors should expect following the midterm elections. The resulting gridlock is likely to mean that Congress will be limited in what it can pass. Instead, it is expected that the regulatory agencies and the Federal Reserve are to be the venues where the policy action takes place.

Read more in Potomac Perspective from Brian Gardner: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aVkqpr

News reports suggest that President Trump is considering proposals to cut the capital gains tax. The idea that the Treasury Department can act independently to change the rules for the capital gains tax has been floated before, but doubt that it has the authority to act. Absent administrative action, Congress would need to change the law and that is unlikely to occur in 2026. In this note, Brian Gardner, Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist reviews some of the options and describes the significant hurdles that each proposal would face.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/axuaPK

In this Potomac Perspective, Brian Gardner discusses what a Democratic win could mean for certain sectors and how policy may, or may not, change. Following that, they explain why they think a Democratic takeover of the House is likely, but by a smaller margin than has occurred in past elections. They also present the reasons why they think that Republicans are currently favored to win the Senate.

Read more here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aMtpap

In addition to working on another reconciliation bill and a stopgap funding bill for the fall, Congress is working on a cryptocurrency bill (yes, still!) and a community bank deregulatory bill. Despite some positive headlines about both bills, there are reasons to be skeptical about their prospects. Also, data centers and their impact on energy costs are getting more attention in the House. We are uncertain if legislation will pass in 2026, but the issue will stick around.

Read more in today's Potomac Perspective from Brian Gardner, Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist:
https://livesocial.seismic.com/aJ5sAU

New York Governor Kathy Hochul announced a one-year moratorium on the construction of new "hyperscale" data centers. New York is the first state to impose such a ban, and it raises questions about whether other states will follow and what steps the federal government might take. In our view, state actions, like New York's, are more likely than federal ones, even if Democrats sweep the midterm elections.

Click here to read more in Potomac Perspective from Brian Gardner, Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aYJ44w

Congress is back in session this week and the Senate will try, yet again, to strike a deal on a cryptocurrency bill. Congressional leaders will also try to make progress on a series of budget-related bills. Several congressional hearings relevant to the markets, especially for bank and financials investors, are scheduled to take place this week. The heads of the Federal Reserve and the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau will both testify before the House Financial Services and Senate Banking Committees.

Click here to read more in Potomac Perspective from Brian Gardner, Stifel's Chief Washington Policy Strategist: https://livesocial.seismic.com/auTFT3

After an unsettled start to the year, the second quarter saw markets roar back – even as a new Federal Reserve chair, firmer inflation, and a fragile Middle East de-escalation reshaped the path for growth, rates, and returns. In this edition of Quarterly Market Perspectives, we examine how these forces are shaping our second-half outlook and what they could mean for investor positioning.

Read the full piece here: https://livesocial.seismic.com/aW0WOD