Jon Ritter at Ritter Mortgage Group

This week in the news, what is impacting mortgage rates:

📊 The US Treasury issued a 60-day license this today waiving sanctions on Iranian oil and petrochemical sales. Oil is down again today, which could ease rates, depending on how negotiations go.

→ A 14-point MoU was digitally signed, with a 60-day roadmap toward a broader peace and sanctions-relief deal. Some frozen Iranian assets have been released, held under Qatar-managed controls.
→ Iran's nuclear program is in technical discussions under the roadmap — uranium stockpiles and facility restrictions are still being negotiated. That open item is what the market is pricing near-term.
→ The oil license covers July and August — the CPI and PCE data the Fed will have before a fall hike decision. Last week's dot plot had October odds above 90%, set against a 4.2% CPI that was heavily energy-driven. Cheaper oil through this window is a factor in whether those projections hold.
→ Near-term the rate picture is stability: the MoU is in place, but final nuclear and sanctions terms are 60 days out. That limits how far rates fall even as oil continues to ease. Mortgage rates have been trending lower, tracking the 10-year Treasury — not the Fed's overnight rate.
→ Housing starts fell 9.8% last week — a five-year low. Jobless claims at 226K, elevated.

Have a timely housing situation? Let's discuss the rate strategy now, and work through it together.

📊 The Fed held rates steady yesterday, as expected. The dot plot wasn't.

Nine of the 18 officials now project at least one hike before year-end — the median year-end projection moved from 3.4% to 3.8%. Traders went from pricing a 27% chance of a September hike before the meeting to 49% after it.

→ Warsh said “price stability” 12 times and described the committee as “unanimous and unambiguous.” He also withheld his own projection from the dot plot — consistent with his long-held position that the SEP isn’t a useful policy tool. So half the committee is on record for a hike, but the new chair hasn’t shown his hand.
→ The Iran deal Monday drove oil down 5% — a disinflationary signal pointing toward lower rates longer-term. The hawkish dot plot is pulling the other direction. Right now the bond market is following the Fed.
→ 30-year is at 6.51% today, ticked up from 6.48% last week.

Have a timely housing situation? Let’s discuss the rate strategy now, and work through it together.

📊Oil fell more than 5% today and stocks jumped on news that the US and Iran reached a deal to end the fighting and reopen the Strait of Hormuz.

The Fed meets this week, Tuesday and Wednesday — Kevin Warsh's first meeting as Fed chair. His remarks will be important for signals of how the Fed approaches the rest of the year given the progress on Iran.

→ Recap: Last week's inflation report came in at 4.2% due to energy prices.
→ A hold from the Fed was already the expectation before today, and the Strait reopening isn't expected to change that — the inflation impact from the conflict is already in the data, at least short-term.
→ What we're watching: when the cheaper oil will show up in the data, and how it will impact the Fed's next meeting in September.
→ As of last week, the 30-year averaged 6.48%.

Have a timely housing situation? - Let's discuss the rate strategy now, and work through it together.

Quick thing I like to point out before a Fed annoucement, because I hear this a lot: The Fed doesn't set mortgage rates.

I know it feels like they should — but mortgage pricing is actually driven by the bond market and investor demand. The Fed sets the mood; the bond market sets the price.

So if you've been sitting on the sidelines waiting for the Fed to cut rates before you buy... I get it, but that strategy tends to create more frustration than results.

What works better is building a plan that makes sense across a range of outcomes. Buy when the home is right and the numbers work for you — not when a news cycle tells you it's time.

Curious how mortgage rates actually get priced? I wrote about it here: https://jonritter.com/mortgage-rates/






Ritter Mortgage Group, Inc. | NMLS #1436890 | Jon Ritter NMLS #210106 | Equal Housing Lender

📊 Here's where things stand on rates and the market heading into this week — and there's more going on beneath the surface than the headline reflect:

➡️ The 30-year fixed average ticked down slightly, coming in at 6.48% as of June 4 (Freddie Mac) — down from 6.53% the week prior. The move followed Friday's May jobs report. Jobs clearly aren't what is moving the markets, yet.

➡️ That report: 172,000 jobs added in May — more than double the 80,000 economists expected. Sounds like a hot labor market. But when we looked at where those jobs actually came from — leisure and hospitality added 70,000, local government added 55,000. Those two sectors alone made up most of the gain.

➡️ Wage growth came in at 3.4% year-over-year. PCE inflation is running at 3.8%. Real wages are still slightly negative. Markets are pricing in a hold at the June 16–17 FOMC at better than 95% probability — the benchmark currently sits at 3.50–3.75%.

➡️ The number worth watching this week: May CPI on Wednesday, June 11. It's the last major inflation print before the Fed meets. Depending on what it shows, rates could move in either direction.

➡️ Here's what's actually driving the rate picture right now. Iran halted its strikes on Israel this weekend, saying Israel had "learned a lesson" — but stated explicitly: if Israel attacks southern Lebanon, strikes resume. Earlier last week Iran had suspended US negotiations entirely when Israel threatened Hezbollah in Beirut. Trump reportedly had a heated exchange with Netanyahu. Iran came back to the table. Trump said this weekend a deal on the Strait of Hormuz and an extended ceasefire is reachable "over the next week."

➡️ That chain is what's holding rates where they are: Lebanon is the tripwire, the Strait of Hormuz is the oil lever, and oil is what's feeding inflation. If a deal closes, there's room for rates to ease. If Lebanon escalates, the reverse.

If you're thinking through timing on a purchase or refi, we're around. Happy to talk through your situation.

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Knowing the differnce between once a week vs. bi-weekly vs. once a month mortgage payments saves 💰
👉 Here's the bottom line.



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This one costs people money at the worst possible moment — in the middle of a transaction, often right before closing.

Here's what happens: someone gets a rate quote. It's a good number. They feel relieved, maybe a little excited. They tell their friends, factor it into their budget, maybe use it to make a purchase decision.

And then, somewhere between that conversation and the closing table, the rate or terms, or both, change.

Because a quote is not a lock. And until it's locked, it's an estimate on a specific day — and that day's pricing moves with the market.

A few things worth understanding here:

→ Mortgage rates can move daily — sometimes intraday on volatile days. A quote on Monday tells you Monday's pricing. It doesn't protect you on Thursday.
→ You can verify whether your rate is locked — and most borrowers don't. Your Loan Estimate is required to disclose this. Top right corner of page one: locked or not locked, and if locked, the expiration date. Most people never check. Their lender may not have volunteered it.
→ Even after a lock, the rate can change if the loan changes. A credit score that drops between application and closing, an appraisal that comes in below purchase price, or a property issue that affects eligibility can all reprice a locked loan. The lock protects you from market movement — not from qualification changes.
→ There's a rate cycle worth knowing about. Over roughly a two- to three-week window, rates tend to move within about a quarter-point range — rising toward a peak and falling to a low — unless something significant disrupts the market. Quoting and locking on a day near the top of that cycle, without knowing where you are in it, means you may have locked at a worse moment than was available.

The borrowers who navigate this well know when to lock, how to verify it, and what to watch for. That's something your loan officer should be managing — and communicating — on your behalf.

One of five mortgage mistakes I see cost people real money in 2026. Link to full article in the comments.

Did you know the Loan Estimate tells you whether your rate is actually locked? 👇








Jon Ritter | NMLS #210106 | Ritter Mortgage Group, Inc. | Equal Housing Lender

📊 Here's where things stand on rates this week — with a lot still unresolved:

➡️ The 30-year fixed came down to around 6.45%, from 6.53% last week. The move wasn't Fed-driven. It came from oil markets responding to ceasefire progress — which means it can reverse just as fast.

➡️ The tentative Iran deal isn't signed. This morning Iran paused negotiations. That's why rates ticked back up slightly today — the market is trading the same headline in both directions.

➡️ PCE inflation hit 3.8% annually in April — the highest since May 2023. Core is at 3.3%. The Fed has no room to ease, and a rate hike is now priced as more likely than a cut by year-end.

➡️ The May jobs report drops Friday. Wage growth is the number that matters — it's one of the few remaining inputs the Fed is watching closely before the June 17 meeting.

If you're weighing a move this summer and have questions, please reach out. We're happy to talk through your situation.

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📊The 30-year slipped just under 6% back in February — the first time since 2022 — and it's 6.51% now, the highest since last August.

Oil continues its volitility following the news headlines about the Strait of Hormuz, which is still largely closed. The resultant energy spike has carried headline inflation back to 3.8%, and the Fed won't cut into an inflation print moving the wrong direction. Mortgage rates track the 10-year Treasury, and the 10-year tracks where investors think inflation is headed — so until the oil picture changes, the rate picture doesn't.

The variable that resolves this is the one nobody sets from a desk in the U.S. There's a 60-day ceasefire framework on the table to de-mine and reopen the strait, and if it holds, oil retreats, inflation eases, and rates have room to come back toward February. If it slips, they stay. That's the binary.