Michael R. Strain

In Washington, analysts and politicians alike seem increasingly resigned to the idea that the only way the government will engage in fiscal consolidation is in the aftermath of a bond market crisis. But I am more optimistic that the normal democratic process could yet lead to deficit reduction.

Many discount this possibility because the last truly successful effort to reduce the deficit occurred as long ago as 1993, when the political environment was much more amenable to productive compromise. Commentators contrast this success with the failure of the $4tn “grand bargain” deficit-reduction effort in 2011, led by President Barack Obama and Republican House Speaker John Boehner. They argue that the rise of more adversarial and performative politics is to blame.

Of course, politics and policymaking have deteriorated since the 1990s. But I still think that the normal democratic process has a much better shot at leading to deficit reduction than most analysts and commentators seem to think, as I discuss in my latest Financial Times column.

Sooner or later, America is going to have to reckon with the debt There is a bigger political constituency for fiscal consolidation than many think

I wish that Pope Leo XIV had spent more time on AI’s enormous potential to improve human welfare. I also wish that the Holy Father had more faith in markets and less in government. But ultimately, these disagreements are less important than the moral and intellectual foundations of Leo’s first encyclical.

In a world captivated by technological advances, the Pope emphasizes the primacy of each person’s inherent and inestimable dignity. And amid the frenzy around picking AI winners and the hype about AI possibly eclipsing humanity, Leo asks us to protect the common good and challenges us to embrace our weakness and frailty. As he puts it, “we must remember that humanity flourishes not despite limitations, but often through them.”

In Magnifica Humanitas, the Holy Father seeks to shift attention away from the marvels and terrors of AI and toward the magnificence of humanity. With all eyes now on the technology, this message is needed and welcome. AI tools are impressive. But they are pedestrian compared to the grandeur of a human being.

AI Must Not Encroach on Human Dignity Michael R. Strain applauds Pope Leo XIV for emphasizing that generative models lack a “moral conscience.”

With prices rising faster than wages, workers are losing ground in the US. Americans are worried — including those the GOP needs to attract to the polls in November’s midterm elections. To be sure, when it comes to the high and rising cost of living, President Trump is not blameless. But much of the culpability for inflation and high prices rests with the Federal Reserve and the previous government. They key question for the president: What can he do now to turn things around? I discuss all this in my latest Financial Times column:

How can Trump turn things around on inflation? Most of the culpability rests with the Fed and the Biden government but voters will hold the president accountable

“There’s a certain level of wealth and accumulation that is unearned. You can’t earn a billion dollars. You just can’t earn that.” So claimed Representative Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, the progressive superstar from New York who is attracting presidential buzz. Her fellow New York progressive, Mayor Zohran Mamdani, would agree. He seems to think that billionaires with second homes in New York City aren’t pulling their weight. Meanwhile, a proposed wealth tax in California seems to be motivated by a similar mindset. How to explain this sense that billionaires are taking from society rather than contributing to it? Rep. Ocasio-Cortez and Mayor Mamdani — and Bernie Sanders, and Elizabeth Warren, and many more — seem to assume that the economy is a zero-sum game, in which the only way for your income to rise is for mine to fall. This is dangerous nonsense. The game is not rigged. In the US economy, people receive their just rewards. Compensation is primarily determined by productivity—effort, risk-taking, skills, and choices. Billionaires have outsize wealth primarily because the market value of their economic contributions to society warrants it. We should celebrate their success as a message to young people. We should want more billionaires, not fewer—certain in the knowledge that they give much more to society than they take from it. My Project Syndicate column.

The War on Billionaires Is Dangerous Nonsense Michael R. Strain argues that proposals for punitive taxes on the ultra-wealthy threaten to do far more harm than good.

Kevin Warsh's nomination hearing for Federal Reserve chairman is today. President Trump has three goals for the Fed: He wants Mr. Warsh in as chairman; he wants the current chairman, Jerome Powell, off the Fed’s powerful interest-rate-setting committee when his term ends on May 15; and he wants lower long-term interest rates.

But Mr. Trump’s own vindictiveness and lack of discipline are thwarting all three goals. Traders on Polymarket think the odds of Warsh being confirmed by May 14 are a measly 2 percent.

Warsh will be a terrific Fed chairman, bringing many skills and attributes to the post. Much of his reform agenda is laudable and necessary. But to ensure his timely confirmation, Republican senators must pressure Trump to drop the threats and the criminal investigation into Powell.

They must convince the president to get out of his own way.

My Project Syndicate column.

Trump’s Self-Defeating Attacks on the Fed Michael R. Strain warns that the president’s threats against Jerome Powell are jeopardizing his three main goals.

President Trump’s high-risk decision to attempt an overthrow of the Iranian regime — and the reaction to it — demonstrates that the center of gravity on the political right remains much closer to its George W Bush-era positions than is widely thought. Moreover, across the board, the most durable successes of the Trump era are likely to be the ones most in line with traditional conservatism. What distinguishes Trumpism is largely personal to Trump: his impulsiveness, celebrity and style. These lessons won’t be lost as the race to succeed him begins in earnest next year.

My Financial Times column.

Trumpism has done remarkably little to the GOP’s centre of gravity Most of the things that make it distinct from traditional conservatism won’t last

Since OpenAI’s ChatGPT burst onto the scene in late 2022, economists and commentators have been discussing generative AI’s possible effects on productivity. But from a cultural and political perspective, it is useful to ask a normative question: How much productivity growth should society desire?

My Project Syndicate column.

How Much AI-Driven Productivity Growth Do We Want? Michael R. Strain argues that the benefits of substantial gains would outweigh the costs in advanced economies.

The Fed should treat inflation psychology as fragile — which makes the current situation in the Middle East even more precarious. If an energy price shock caused by the Iran war leads the public to worry that inflation is accelerating, then that concern could itself cause inflation to accelerate. And the public seems primed to worry about exactly that. A self-reinforcing inflationary spiral is a real concern.

My Financial Times column.

An Iran shock will further damage fragile inflation psychology Business and households alike are worrying — the Fed should be too

With both the Holocaust denier Nick Fuentes and more genteel post-liberal commentators calling for their own religious views to be imposed on others, traditional conservatives and Christians — particularly Catholics — must speak up. The state has no business using coercion in matters of conscience, as the Catholic Church itself has long made clear.

My Project Syndicate column. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/christians-conservatives-versus-american-taliban-post-liberals-by-michael-r-strain-2026-02?

Christians vs. America’s Taliban Michael R. Strain explains why any serious conservative should reject the post-liberal far right's push for theocratic government.

Markets, economists and Federal Reserve officials seem to believe that the US labour market spent most of last year weakening, that inflation is trending back to the Fed’s inflation target and that the central bank will continue cutting interest rates in 2026. On each of these three points, the conventional view is probably wrong. It would be a mistake for the Fed to cut rates again in 2026. Though the Fed thinks it has its foot on the economy’s brake pedal, it is actually hitting the gas. In part because of this, even if the central bank keeps the policy rate at its current level, it may need to raise rates in the second half of this year. My Financial Times column:

Everything you thought about the US labour market is wrong The conventional view has struggled to contend with robust economic growth