The Ripon Society

TEDDY TWEET OF THE WEEK

“The virtue that is worth having is the virtue that can sustain the rough shock of actual living; the virtue that can achieve practical results, that finds expression in actual life.”

Theodore Roosevelt
At New York State Bar Association Banquet
January 18, 1899

Groceries. Gas. Housing. Healthcare. Voters have plenty of economic worries heading into November, but one of the biggest threats barely makes the list: Social Security. 🚨

In the September Ripon Forum, Charles Blahous of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University warns that the program's retirement fund is on track to run dry in 2032. The date matters less than the timing of the treatment, though. Wait too long, and the fix gets harder and harder until it is out of reach entirely.

What's really at stake is whether Social Security stays the reliable, earned benefit Americans have counted on for generations. 👇

🔗 https://riponsociety.org/article/the-most-important-issue-no-one-is-talking-about-this-election/

Gen Z's break with Trump isn't slowing down — it's accelerating across the board. University of Maryland graduate student Ethan Rosier digs into the numbers and argues the GOP's problem with Gen Z isn't just policy, it's how the party talks to them. A must-read ahead of the midterms:

In 2020, Joe Biden won the youth vote by 25 points over Donald Trump. Four years later, Vice President Kamala Harris lost significant ground in that same group, carrying it by only 4 points. With the 2026 midterm elections just around the corner, experts are still trying to figure out where the generation’s political loyalties lie. Ask 1,000 Gen Zers about their politics, the issues that animate them, and how eager they are to engage with government, and you’ll get no shortage of different answers. In 2024, 47 percent of eligible youth voters (ages 18-29) cast a ballot, a dip from 2020’s historic 50 percent, but still a sharp improvement over 2016’s 39 percent. That raises two questions: what issues drive Gen Z to the polls, and does the rightward swing in 2024 reflect a lasting political realignment?

Tufts Center for Information & Research on Civic Learning and Engagement (CIRCLE) published an April report which identified cost of living and inflation, healthcare, and housing costs as the top three issues Gen Z is looking to their elected officials to address. Young Americans are growing worried about their future ability to purchase a car, own a home, and afford healthcare – not to mention a shrinking Social Security fund. The issues that won Trump significant support from young voters in 2024 are the same ones his leadership will be judged on in 2026.

Notably, foreign policy and humanitarian crises abroad ranked last among listed choices, perhaps signaling President Trump’s “America First” 2024 campaign message continues to resonate with this generation two years later. Despite ongoing foreign conflicts, young Americans want their government focused on the issues at home. As domestic issues remain a top priority for Gen Z, the upcoming midterm elections will be a turning point in the generation’s political engagement. Whoever treats these voters as an afterthought does so at their own risk. Those same anxieties help explain why so many young men swung toward Trump in 2024 — the open question is whether that shift holds through November, or reverts.

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/the-midterms-through-the-eyes-of-gen-z/

to December's Ripon Forum, where Katie Fallow and Jake Karr of the Knight First Amendment Institute ask a timely question: what would James Madison make of today's press restrictions?

Nearly 250 years ago, James Madison declared on the floor of the U.S. House of Representatives that in a republican government, “the censorial power is in the people over the Government, not in the Government over the people.” The Founders understood that free speech is a fundamental freedom on which our representative democracy rests. The Founders also recognized that the press plays an essential role in self-government by informing the public about the work of their elected representatives, thus enabling the people to hold government officials to account.

Unfortunately, the Trump administration has taken a series of steps this year that fly in the face of the First Amendment principle, long recognized by the Supreme Court, that the press is “a constitutionally chosen means for keeping officials elected by the people responsible to all the people whom they were selected to serve.” In reporting on the government, the press must be free from tampering by government officials seeking to bend public opinion to their side. But the current administration appears intent on imposing unconstitutional restrictions on reporters to stem the flow of information and control public discourse.

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/james-madison-would-be-appalled/

We went straight to the source — the strategists running point for House, Senate, and gubernatorial races nationwide — and asked them who's turning heads this cycle.

From Army veterans and former governors to a decorated cyber colonel and a biotech entrepreneur-turned-candidate, this year's slate of GOP contenders is as diverse as it is formidable. Leaders from the National Republican Congressional Committee, Congressional Leadership Fund, NRSC, and Republican Governors Association (RGA) weigh in on the names Americans will be hearing a lot more about between now and November 3rd.

Read the full rundown in the latest edition of The Ripon Forum: https://riponsociety.org/article/candidates-to-watch-in-2026/

TEDDY TWEET OF THE WEEK

“To announce that there must be no criticism of the President, or that we are to stand by the President, right or wrong, is not only unpatriotic and servile, but is morally treasonable to the American public.”

Theodore Roosevelt
Kansas City Star
May 7, 1918

Since 1934, the president's party has lost an average of 27 House seats and 3.4 Senate seats at the midterms. History isn't kind to the party in power — and 2026 looks more "typical" than "exception." Andrew Busch breaks down the curse — and what could break it — in the new Ripon Forum:

One of the most consistent patterns in American politics is the tendency of the president’s party to lose seats in Congress in the midterm elections.

This pattern is most pronounced in the House of Representatives, where the president’s party has lost ground in all but three midterm elections since 1894. There are more frequent exceptions in the Senate, but even there the president’s party has lost seats about two-thirds of the time. Whatever solace presidential parties may take from the more mixed results in Senate races is given back when reviewing elections for state governors: only a dozen states hold their gubernatorial elections in presidential years. The rest are scheduled with the congressional midterms or (in a handful of cases) odd-year state elections. The pattern there mimics the congressional pattern.

There is a simple reason House results are more consistently negative toward the president’s party than Senate results. Every House district holds an election in every midterm year (as well as in every presidential election year), but because of the Senate’s staggered six-year terms, only one third of the Senate, hailing from two-thirds of the states, are up for election at any one time. Depending on which states are holding elections, the Senate can find itself largely insulated against negative national trends against the president in a way the House cannot. In 2018, Donald Trump’s Republicans lost 41 seats and their majority in the House, but actually gained two seats in the Senate because they enjoyed a “good map.”

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/the-midterm-curse-and-the-balance-of-power-in-washington/

A podcast beats a 30-sec ad. A streamer beats an editorial board.
Targeted Victory’s Matt Gorman breaks down why campaigns don't control the gatekeepers anymore — and why attention is the real 2026 battleground:

Politics used to interrupt your television show.
Now it is the television show.

I’ve spent the better part of two decades in communications — presidential campaigns, congressional races, corporate boardrooms, cable news studios, and, for a brief and unforgettable chapter, inside one of the world’s largest social media platforms. Across each stop, I’ve watched one truth become impossible to ignore.

The communications playbook has been rewritten.

Not because television disappeared. It hasn’t.

Not because newspapers stopped mattering. They still do.

But because campaigns no longer decide where voters get their information — or who they trust to deliver it.

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/attention-is-the-new-battleground/

To June 2020, when Sen. Bill Cassidy joined a virtual Ripon Society meeting during one of the most turbulent stretches in recent memory — economic turmoil and nationwide unrest converging all at once:

“When you read President Lincoln, our first Republican President, it is amazing the intellect which he brought forth in this regard. Why do I go into that? Because if there was ever a time for a thoughtful response to the challenges facing our country, it is now. We have to work together and apply our conservative principles — our value of life and liberty and the pursuit of happiness — to the problems of today.”

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/2020/06/if-there-was-ever-a-time-for-a-thoughtful-response-to-the-challenges-facing-our-country-it-is-now/

Independents now outnumber Democrats in 5 of 7 key battleground states. Whether Dems get their Blue Wave in November depends almost entirely on that margin.

The Winston Group’s David Winston & Myra Miller lay out the landscape for the GOP heading into the fall in the latest Ripon Forum:

Whether Democrats get their Blue Wave will largely depend on the margin among independents. In 2018, Democrats won independents by +12D, producing the Blue Wave. In 2022, Republicans had their best party ID advantage in the history of exit polling (+3), but the Red Wave was blunted by GOP underperformance among independents (+2D).

As we saw in last November’s gubernatorial elections in Virginia and New Jersey, there are signs that Democrats could be recreating the 2020 Biden coalition. In Virginia, independents made up 33 percent of the electorate. Abigail Spanberger won independents by 19 points, the same margin as Biden’s in 2020 and a reversal of Glenn Youngkin’s 9-point margin in 2021. In New Jersey, Sherrill carried independents by 13 points (56-43).

While there are factors that work in Democrats’ favor, one of the biggest obstacles to a Blue Wave is that the image of Congressional Democrats is negative overall (38-56 favorable-unfavorable in our June 2026 survey for Winning the Issues) and among independents (30-62). The image of Congressional Republicans is 37-58 favorable-unfavorable, on par with that of Democrats (38-56); among independents, the Republican image is 25-68. Among independents, 42 percent have an unfavorable view of both Republicans and Democrats, meaning both parties will be competing for a group that has a negative image of both.

READ MORE: https://riponsociety.org/article/the-political-landscape-for-republicans-heading-into-the-fall/