Wikistrat

💡 The war was supposed to dismantle Iran's nuclear program. It paused with Iran's 400 kg of 60% enriched uranium still intact, a tighter grip on the Strait of Hormuz, and a regime more confident than before.

Yesterday we hosted Dr. Sina Azodi (Elliott School of International Affairs) to assess what the new US-Iran MOU actually establishes, and whether Tehran goes nuclear.

🔗 Full recording & key insights in the comments 👇

Join us tomorrow (Wednesday) for a special webinar and Q&A with renowned Iran expert Dr. Sina Azodi (Elliott School of International Affairs) to analyze why Washington and Tehran are both claiming victory, and what the US-Iran deal actually delivers for the Middle East.

Register now 👇

Last night, while the missiles were still in the air, Wikistrat assembled a panel of seven senior Iran experts to assess Tehran's new doctrine of fusing Lebanon and Iran into a single battlespace, its test of the Trump-Netanyahu gap, the escalation ladder, and the 48-hour indicators that will define the rest of the year.

👇 Full report in the comments

💡Putin is weaker, but the system holding him up is stronger.

So what would actually end his rule?

In a new report, eight leading Russia experts map where Putin's authority is fraying, the effects of the war in Ukraine on the regime, and what the next 12 months are likely to reshape.

Full report in the comments 👇

Four days ago, 11 senior Iran specialists mapped where Tehran would actually bend. Today, Iran tabled a three-phase framework that lines up almost exactly with that map.

✔️ Tehran's phases are ceasefire, Hormuz, then nuclear.

❌ Missiles and proxies aren't on the table at all, which is exactly where our panel placed them: the two files Iran will not trade.

As one finding from the report put it bluntly: "Missile demands are the single most reliable path to collapsing the talks."

The shape of a possible deal is visible, and it's narrower than the American opening position.

Full report in the comments 👇

💡 Washington assumes a weak Iran deal pushes Saudi Arabia toward normalization with Israel.

❌ Eight leading Gulf experts we surveyed disagree.

A few other findings from our recent expert panel:

➡️ 7 of 8: The UAE will not quietly accept a deal leaving Iran with de facto control of the Strait of .

➡️ 8 of 8: If Iran refuses ballistic missile limits, the Gulf states escalate militarily within three years. No dissenters.

➡️ Sharpest split on the panel: whether Saudi Arabia pursues nuclear weapons within a decade. Three call it near-certain. Two call it unlikely.

Negotiators are set to meet again this weekend, and President Trump told Axios on Friday he expects a deal "in the next day or two."

Whatever Washington and Tehran sign will set Gulf security through the 2030s, and the assumptions behind U.S. policy may not hold up against what the region is actually planning.

Full report in the comments 👇

Happy Easter from all of us at Wikistrat!

Happy Passover from all of us at Wikistrat!

💡One month into Operation Epic Fury, Wikistrat's third expert survey reveals a conflict that has defied the assumptions of both sides.

The regime is holding, domestic unrest has vanished as a factor, and the options that might break the stalemate, from Kharg Island to a full ground invasion, carry risks experts assess as greater than the stalemate itself.

In a new report, eleven senior Iran specialists weigh in on the war's trajectory and its most dangerous decision points.

Full report in the comments👇

The Iran war is rewriting the Middle East.

Join us tomorrow (Wednesday) for a live webinar and Q&A with Dr. James M. Dorsey (S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies) - one of the sharpest analysts tracking the conflict's ripple effects across the region.

Register now 👇