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Subject: Quick Mortgage & Market Update

Hi everyone,

I wanted to share a quick update on what’s happening with mortgage rates and the housing market:

Mortgage Rates:
Rates have improved. Two weeks ago, the average 30-year rate was 6.86%, and we’re now more than half a percent lower. I expect a bit more improvement today or tomorrow. This is largely due to the ADP job report, which was expected to show +40,000 jobs but instead showed –32,000 jobs. Over the last four months, the labor market has seen a net loss of 17,000 jobs, signaling softness in the economy.

Because of this, the probability of a Federal Reserve rate cut next week is now around 90%. While Fed cuts don’t directly set mortgage rates, they do influence overall market conditions—including HO borrowing costs—which can indirectly help mortgage rates.

Important Condo Update:
Rising costs—especially insurance and maintenance—are causing more condo projects to become non-warrantable, even if they were approved just months ago. HOAs are adjusting policies to save money, but many are no longer meeting agency guidelines due to high deductibles or low coverage.

If you're representing a condo buyer or seller, it's crucial to understand warrantability upfront. Otherwise, transactions can fall apart late in the process, costing clients time and money.

Tucson Affordability Reminder:
The median home price in Tucson is still about $60,000 lower than the U.S. median. That makes owning a home here roughly $400/month cheaper than the national average. This is a great point to share with your network—Tucson is far more affordable than many people realize.

If you have questions about rates, market trends, or condo warrantability, I’m always here to help.

Best regards,
Randy Costilow
Real Estate Consultant
520-444-8444
[email protected]

🏠 INTEREST RATE UPDATE (as of November 11, 2025)

📉 The 30-year fixed is sitting at ~6.22%, marking its lowest level since early 2024.

So What’s Coming Next?
Industry experts expect rates to hover in the low-6% range through the end of the year, with possible small dips if inflation data continues to cool.

Fed Watch: The Fed has hinted at a modest rate cut in early 2026 if inflation remains near target.

Inflation: Recent reports show slower price growth — a positive sign for long-term rates.

Mortgage Demand: Buyer activity is picking up as affordability slightly improves.

What This Means for Tucson Buyers & Sellers

Buyers have regained some purchasing power compared to mid-2024.

Sellers should note that homes priced right are moving faster, with fewer price reductions.

Rates near 6.2–6.5% may be the “new normal” — still historically reasonable.

What I’m Telling Buyers Right Now:

“This is a smart time to act before spring competition heats up. Rates are favorable, and inventory in Tucson, Oro Valley, and Marana gives buyers more choice. Lock in your rate now — and refinance later if they dip again.”

— Randy “Real Estate Randy” Costilow | eXp Realty

✅ Current Rate Snapshot

The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate in the U.S. is about 6.30% (week ending Oct 24, 2025).
Trading Economics
mortgagenewsdaily.com

Experts suggest average 30-year conventional APRs are slightly higher (depending on fees/points) — generally in the mid-6% range (i.e., ~6.5-7%).
Norada Real Estate

Forecasts: Many expect mortgage rates to remain above 6% for a while; some project 2026 averages around ~6.0% but not dramatically lower.
Norada Real Estate

Suggested Stats for Tucson Post:

👉 “30-Year Fixed ≈ 6.30%”
👉 “Estimated APR ~ 6.80%”

You should still note that local factors, credit score, down payment, property type etc., will shift your actual rate/ APR.

🔍 Two Key Insights on Federal Reserve / Mortgage Rate Outlook

The Fed has projected a few short-term rate cuts, but these don’t automatically mean large drops in mortgage rates — because mortgage rates are influenced more by long-term bond yields, inflation expectations, and supply/demand of mortgage-backed securities.
CBS News
Investopedia

With inflation still above target and economic uncertainties remaining, long-term rates (and thus mortgage rates) may stay elevated — meaning the “new normal” mortgage rate may settle in the 6%+ zone for a while.
New York Post

“🏡 The Housing Heartbeat:
What Your Mortgage Rate Is Telling You This Week”

Here’s your weekly pulse check on mortgage rates—because every point matters when buying or investing in Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, Vail & Sahuarita!

📊 This Week’s Snapshot

30-year fixed rate avg: ≈ 6.34%
Trading Economics
+2
Freddie Mac
+2

APR on competitive offers: ~ 6.90% (can vary)
Rocket Mortgage

Some quotes locally may be a bit higher or lower depending on credit, down payment, property type

❤️ Why the heartbeat matters

Mortgage rates follow the “heartbeat” of the bond market & economic signals

Small shifts can make a big difference in your monthly payment

It’s not just the rate—APR includes fees, points, etc.

🔎 What you should be doing now

Compare lender quotes side by side (rate vs. APR)

Ask about buydown / rate-lock / float-down options

Work on credit, debt ratios, down payment to improve your quote

Chat with me: I’ll run a customized side-by-side for your scenario

I’m Randy “Real Estate Randy” Costilow | eXp Realty
Relentless in communication. Fierce in negotiations. Always focused on your best deal in our Tucson markets.
📞 520-444-8444 — DM me “HEARTBEAT” and I’ll send the next update right to your inbox.

Tucson Weekly Rate Watch (9/8/25):
🔥 Rates just hit ~11-month lows.
If you pressed pause earlier this year, this might be your window.

This Week’s Snapshot

Avg 30-yr fixed rate: ~6.50% (Freddie Mac PMMS, week ending 9/4).
Freddie Mac

Avg 30-yr fixed APR (national): ~6.55% today.
Bankrate

Daily trackers: Another 11-month low noted today; some quotes hovering near the low-6s.
Mortgage News Daily
The Wall Street Journal
MarketWatch

MBA survey: Conforming 30-yr contract rate dipped to ~6.64% last week; points also edged down.
MBA
MBA Newslink

What’s Moving Rates Right Now

Jobs & inflation data (cooler data = lower yields = lower mortgage rates).
The Wall Street Journal
MarketWatch

10-Year Treasury & MBS spreads (mortgage pricing follows bonds).
FRED

Fed policy expectations (rate-cut odds shift with each report).
MarketWatch

Rate vs. APR (Quick Explain)

Interest rate = your base cost of borrowing.

APR = interest rate plus lender fees/points, expressed yearly—use it to compare total cost across lenders. (General definition; confirm with your Loan Estimate.)

What This Means in Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, Vail & Sahuarita

Buyers: Slightly lower payments improve qualification and negotiating room—especially on homes that have been sitting.

Sellers: More qualified buyers + steadier rates = better showing traffic when priced right.

Pro Tips From Your Local Deal-Closer 🏡

Lock smart: consider float-down options if offered.

Boost pricing: credit score, points, LTV, occupancy, property type, and condo vs. SFR all affect your quote.

Ask me for a side-by-side Rate vs. Points break-even—often a small buydown pays off.

I’m Randy “Real Estate Randy” Costilow | eXp Realty

Relentless communication, sharp negotiation, and laser focus on the best deal for my buyers & sellers.

Covering Tucson, Oro Valley, Marana, Vail, Sahuarita. Call/text 520-444-8444 and I’ll tailor a plan this week.

👀 Want this as a weekly series? Drop “RATE WATCH” below and I’ll DM you the next update every Monday.

#️⃣ Hashtags


Sources: Freddie Mac PMMS (weekly averages), MBA Weekly Survey (contract rates/points), Bankrate (daily APR averages), Mortgage News Daily/major outlets (intra-day trends).
Freddie Mac
MBA
MBA Newslink
Bankrate
Mortgage News Daily
The Wall Street Journal
MarketWatch

Market update for
September 3 , 2025

✨ Market Update: Interest Rates Drop Below 6.5%! ✨

📅 As of September 3rd, here’s what’s happening in real estate and the economy:

🔑 Key Highlights

📉 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates: National average down to 6.49% (great news for buyers!)

💼 Job Market Update: Job openings hit a 10-month low (7.18 million)

For the first time since April 2021, unemployed individuals > job openings

Signs of a weaker labor market than expected
🏡 Housing Inventory: Total U.S. inventory = 860,000 homes

Year-over-year inventory growth slowing: from 33% (July 2024) ➡️ 22% (July 2025)
🏦 Fed Watch: 85% probability of a rate cut at the September 17th Fed meeting

✅ Positives for Buyers
Lower rates = better affordability compared to recent months

Slowing inventory growth could mean less competition in some markets

Possible Fed rate cut = even lower borrowing costs ahead

⚠️ Things to Watch Out For

Weakening labor market may bring economic uncertainty

Slower inventory growth means fewer options for buyers

Rates are lower, but still above pre-2022 levels

💡 Takeaway: Now may be a smart time to lock in before rates move again — but keep an eye on inventory and economic signals.

Do NOT wait !
The time to buy is now.

Well the rates are starting to drop !
Are you ready?