UCSB Economic Forecast Project

🏠 What if the solution to high rents was simpler than we think?

Austin, Texas faced some of the fastest-rising rents in the country, with prices up 25% in a single year. Then city leaders tried something different: instead of capping rents, they dramatically increased housing supply through smarter zoning, permitting, and fewer regulatory barriers.

The results? 📊 Austin added 120,000 housing units between 2015 and 2024, a 30% increase, more than triple the national rate. By January 2026, Austin's median rent had actually fallen below the U.S. average, even as the city's population kept growing.

Read more here: https://efp.ucsb.edu/blog/community-policy-research/issue-9-solution-high-rents-increase-housing-supply

In honor of UCSB Graduation Weekend, we're continuing our senior spotlight series! We asked our graduating seniors to introduce themselves, tell us where they're headed, and share a favorite EFP memory.

Let me introduce Lillia Finnegan! During her time at UCSB, she enjoyed early morning runs and getting to interact with economics and accounting professors. This summer, she is studying for and will be sitting for all four parts of the CPA exam. In October, she will be starting full-time as an audit staff in the EY San Diego office. Her favorite memories with EFP include getting to work alongside Peter and Emily.

We're so proud of everything she's accomplished and can't wait to see her thrive at EY!

In honor of UCSB Graduation Weekend, we asked our graduating seniors to introduce themselves, tell us where they’re headed, and share a favorite EFP memory.

Meet Aakash Sriram! After graduating from UCSB, he’s heading to Carnegie Mellon University to pursue his master’s in AI. One of his favorite EFP memories was attending the Economic Summit at The Granada Theatre and hearing all the speakers share their thoughts on the economy. He’s also learned a lot through EFP about how economic data can be used to better understand local trends and communicate meaningful insights to the community.

Congratulations, Aakash, and best of luck at Carnegie Mellon!

The 45th Annual Santa Barbara County Economic Summit is a wrap, and what an evening it was! 🎉

For those who couldn't join us at the Granada Theatre, or want to relive the conversation, the full recording is now available on our YouTube channel. Hear from Peter Rupert, Igor Mezic, and Zack Kass. 📊

🎥 Watch here:

2026 UC Santa Barbara Economic Forecast Project Economic Summit UCSB Economic Forecast Project presents the 2026 Economic Summit fe...

🎙️ Tomorrow is the day, Santa Barbara!
The 45th Annual Santa Barbara County Economic Summit is Thursday, May 21 at the Granada Theatre. Join us for three can't-miss talks:
📊 Peter Rupert -- How's the Economy?
🤖 Igor Mezic -- AI for Autonomous Everything (AIAE): Where Do We Stand and Where Are We Going?
🌅 Zack Kass -- The Next Renaissance & Societal Thresholds

🎟️ Register now: https://artsandlectures.ucsb.edu/events-tickets/events/25-26/2026-economic-summit/

2026 Santa Barbara County Economic Summit on May 21, 2026 | UCSB Arts & Lectures Artificial intelligence is reshaping industries, workforces, and local economies. The 2026 Economic Summit brings together the region's leading voices to explore what it means for Santa Barbara County and beyond. Presented by UCSB Economic Forecast Project. Get tickets for 2026 Santa Barbara County....

🎙️ Santa Barbara, meet your 2026 Economic Summit speakers! Join us on Thursday, May 21 at the Granada Theatre to hear from:

📊 Peter Rupert - How's the Economy?
🤖 Igor Mezic - AI for Autonomous Everything (AIAE): Where Do We Stand and Where Are We Going?
🌅 Zack Kass - The Next Renaissance & Societal Thresholds

Zack Kass is an AI futurist and former OpenAI executive whose new book, The Next Renaissance, explores how AI will reshape society as we know it. The first 500 attendees will receive a free copy!

🎟️ Secure your spot today: https://artsandlectures.ucsb.edu/events-tickets/events/25-26/2026-economic-summit/

Have you ever heard of the Low Income Housing Tax Credit? It's the federal government's primary tool for financing affordable housing development. But how well does it actually work? Our latest article takes a closer look at the mechanics behind LIHTC and asks whether the public benefit matches the public cost. https://efp.ucsb.edu/blog/community-policy-research/issue-8-low-income-housing-tax-credit

Yesterday, Peter Rupert presented our latest research to the County of Santa Barbara Board of Supervisors: The Creative Economy 🎨📊

The numbers tell a compelling story — the creative sector generates over $3.82 billion in total output and nearly $470 million in fiscal impact for county, state, and federal governments. This isn't just culture. It's a major economic engine for Santa Barbara County.

Read the full report 👉

The Creative Economy | Economic Forecast Project UCSB EFP presents findings to the Board of Supervisors on a $3.82 billion Santa Barbara industry

A huge thank you to the Santa Barbara Zoo and our sponsors for making last Friday's Winter Economic Forum a success! On February 13th, we heard from the new UC Santa Barbara Chancellor, Dr. Dennis Assanis; the new president and CEO of the Santa Barbara Zoo, Charles Hopper; and Dr. Peter Rupert.

One takeaway that sparked significant discussion: Peter's data showing that Santa Barbara home prices (indexed at 180.7) have pulled well ahead of personal income growth (148.4) since 2015 — and rents have nearly doubled in that same period, outpacing both California and the national average. For many workers, owning — or even renting — in Santa Barbara is increasingly out of reach.

As Falko Hörnicke at U.S. Bank put it: "I found Peter’s analysis about wage increase and home price/rent development insightful. Certainly an eye opener for many attendees that those two have run in parallel instead of diverging."

If you attended, what stood out to you? Drop your thoughts in the comments below. 💡

Read more about the discussion here: https://efp.ucsb.edu/blog/previous-speaking-engagements/2026-winter-economic-forum

📣 New and Updated Data Alert 📣

📊 Santa Barbara County Real Estate Update: October–December 2025
South County’s housing market, based on recorded residential sales (single-family homes and condos), closed the year with steady demand and resilient pricing.

Carpinteria: down to $1.55M (from $1.70M)
Santa Barbara: up to $1.26M (from $1.23M)
Goleta: up to $2.00M (from $1.86M)

Across the Q4 period, median sale prices remained elevated in key coastal cities, alongside modest increases in transaction activity compared to the same period last year.