John Rothe, CMT

I just recorded a quick market research update, because a lot of investors are asking the same question:

“Why does the S&P 500 feel stuck—even when the news sounds bullish?”

After nearly 30 years doing this, I’ve learned the answer is usually simple:

The index can’t go far unless leadership is doing the heavy lifting.

Here’s what I’m seeing right now:

1) The S&P 500 is at a decision point
Since late 2022, the trend has been constructive—but recently price has been compressing under a clear ceiling. That’s created an ascending triangle setup, which typically resolves with a meaningful move one way or the other.

There’s also an inverse head-and-shoulders structure developing. If it resolves higher, technicians would project a potential move into the 7,400–7,500 area. (That’s a measured objective—not a prediction.)

2) Leadership is rotating
When I look at relative strength and rotation, the market doesn’t look broken—it looks like it’s changing drivers.

Areas showing improving momentum include:

Industrials

Materials

Energy

(And selective parts of tech)

3) Tech matters… a lot
Technology is a major weight in the S&P 500, and right now XLK is in a weak sideways consolidation with lower momentum.

Several key names are also consolidating:

Apple testing support with weak momentum

Microsoft and Amazon on the “wrong side of the cloud,” a common sign of consolidation

Because tech (and financials) are such large components of the index, their direction often dictates whether the S&P 500 can push higher.

4) The AI trade may be rotating—not ending
One of the more interesting developments: AI leadership may be shifting within the theme—away from the most crowded semiconductor names and toward the infrastructure that powers AI: energy, industrial capacity, and materials.

And yes—Nvidia remains the key pressure gauge. Its breakout or failure could influence the tone of the broader tech complex.

If you’d like to see the charts and levels I’m watching, the video link is below.

Question for you: Do you think market leadership rotates back to mega-cap tech… or continues shifting into infrastructure sectors?

Link to this weeks video: https://www.artaiscapital.com/blogs/the-s-p-500-looks-strong--but-the-charts-tell-a-more-complicated-story

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For educational purposes only. Not investment advice. Investing involves risk, including loss of principal. Any technical “targets” discussed are measurements and not guarantees of future results.

The S&P 500 Looks Strong—but the Charts Tell a More Complicated Story | ARTAIS Capital Management | Insights Latest research and insights from ARTAIS Capital Management. At ARTAIS Capital, we blend disciplined research, technical insight, and clear communication to help clients navigate changing markets with a proactive, rules-based approach—balancing risk management and growth through every stage of lif...

Quick update: A few days ago, I wrote "Why the S&P 500 Feels Stuck—and What to Watch Next." --> https://johnrothe.com/why-the-sp-500-feels-stuck/

TLDR: Basically, we need to see tech stocks (due to their large weighting in the S&P 500 - especially chip stocks) start to rally if we want to see a Santa Claus rally this year.

Well, Semiconductors (SOXX) are starting to wake up.

Chip stocks are breaking above the cloud model, which typically acts as support/resistance, AND flashing a stochastic buy signal in oversold territory.

This is what we want to see continue for Santa to show up.

Ever feel like the market headlines say “all clear,” but your portfolio doesn’t feel that way?

One big reason the S&P 500 can look strong while going nowhere is tech weighting: when mega-cap tech is chopping sideways or weakening, it can quietly hold the entire index back—even if other sectors are having their own rally.

I just posted a plain-English chart review covering:

--- the S&P 500’s sideways range since October

--- what the Ichimoku “cloud” is (and why it often acts like support/resistance)

--- what’s happening in XLK/QQQ and key tech leaders

--- which sectors are helping, and what I’m watching next

Here’s the post:

Why the S&P 500 Feels Stuck—and What to Watch Next - John Rothe | Stock Market and Investment Research Why the S&P 500 feels stuck: a chart-based look at SPX, the Ichimoku Cloud, QQQ and mega-cap tech—and the sectors providing support now.

After nearly 30 years in portfolio management, I’m pleased to announce that our firm has adopted a new name: ARTAIS Capital Management.

The name reflects the core of our investment approach — Absolute Returns Through Adaptive Investment Strategies — and our commitment to helping clients navigate changing markets with clarity, discipline, and confidence.

While the name has changed, our mission has not. We remain fully dedicated to providing adaptive, rules-based portfolio management and thoughtful guidance for investors who want a strategy built for today’s market environment.

Thank you to everyone who has supported this evolution. I look forward to continuing to serve clients with the same level of care and professionalism they expect.

ARTAIS Capital Management ARTAIS Capital Management provides active, risk-aware investment management for professionals seeking a disciplined, adaptive approach to navigating changing markets.

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