Tom Portlock - Realtor

The Next Building Boom Could Reset Housing
There’s a lot of talk about whether we’re on the edge of the next building boom, and as someone who’s spent decades helping Portlanders navigate the market, I find this perspective fascinating. While housing trends are often described as simply cyclical, the real story has been that persistent supply shortage—something that’s consistently driven real estate values higher, both nationally and right here in Portland. I’ve seen firsthand how a lack of new inventory shapes our neighborhoods and impacts both buyers and sellers. If a new wave of construction really does take off, it could shift the landscape in ways we haven’t seen for years. As always, my focus is on helping clients make sense of these shifts, keeping your interests and dreams at the center of each move. My years in Portland real estate have taught me that understanding the bigger forces at play is key to making confident decisions in our city’s unique housing market.

U.S. Housing Market Rebalances Slowly
As someone who’s spent over three decades guiding clients through Portland’s ever-evolving real estate landscape, I keep a close eye on national housing trends that shape our local market. Recent numbers show that active inventory nationwide has ticked up about 4% year-over-year, but this growth has begun to cool. That’s a sign we’re seeing a steady, buyer-friendly rebalancing—without a sudden flood of new supply. Homes are spending about 61 days on the market, which is unchanged from last year and right in line with the typical late-Q3 slowdown. New listings are down about 1% from last year, nearly matching 2025’s levels, as affordability pressures keep both buyers and sellers cautious about making big moves. The median listing price is now $419,000 (down roughly 1% from last year), and median price per square foot has dipped to $222, its lowest since early Q1 2026. These inventory gains, paired with elevated mortgage rates, are gradually shifting the balance toward buyers, yet the pace remains measured rather than dramatic. I’ve always believed that navigating these shifts with care, market insight, and a true understanding of your goals is key to a successful move—especially in Portland’s unique neighborhoods. Your real estate journey should be about achieving your goals, not chasing the market’s ups and downs.

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U.S. Home Prices Ease Across Major Metros
As someone who’s spent a lifetime in Portland’s neighborhoods and decades guiding clients through the ups and downs of our local market, I always keep an eye on the national trends to help put our own housing landscape in perspective. Mid-Q3 brought broader cooling across many major U.S. metros—price per square foot fell year-over-year in 36 of the 50 largest cities, and nationally we saw about a 2% drop. That’s the tenth consecutive month with softer numbers, as sellers across the country responded to high mortgage rates by adjusting their asking prices more sharply to connect with buyers. Many of the markets that surged during the pandemic are now giving back some of those gains, and increased inventory levels are helping buyers and sellers meet closer to the middle. While every market is unique (especially here in Portland, with our diverse neighborhoods and strong community spirit), these national shifts remind me how important it is to stay creative and proactive—whether you’re buying, selling, or just keeping an eye on what’s next. My approach has always been to listen carefully to your goals and put your interests first, providing honest, experienced guidance through every turn in the market.

What Smaller U.S. Homes Could Mean for Buyers
Over the past decade, the average size of newly sold single-family homes in the U.S. has shifted downward—from 2,700 to 2,400 square feet—while the price per square foot jumped roughly 72%. By 2025, one in four new single-family homes measured under 1,800 square feet, compared to just one in six ten years ago. At the same time, we’ve seen the share of larger homes (3,000+ sq ft) slip from about one in three to just one in five. Builders have responded to rising land, labor, and material costs by designing smaller footprints, aiming to keep new homes within reach for buyers, even as mortgage rates hover between 6% and 7%.

For Portland buyers—especially first-timers or those watching their budget—these smaller homes can mean lower down payments and more manageable monthly costs, though it’s clear that overall affordability remains a challenge with the higher price per square foot. Having spent more than 30 years helping clients navigate our city’s diverse neighborhoods, I’ve seen how shifts in home size and pricing impact what’s possible for buyers. If you’re weighing your options in this evolving market, know that thoughtful planning and local expertise can make all the difference. My focus has always been on understanding your goals and working creatively to help you achieve them—no matter the market trends.