My Time Equity

Market Update: 17 June 2026

U.S. stocks pulled back Tuesday, mostly profit-taking after Monday's gap-up open. The S&P 500 fell 0.6%, while the Nasdaq 100 dropped a sharper 1.9%, as investors locked in some gains from the recent run-up.

The biggest story remains SpaceX, now valued at a reported $2.7 trillion. The key thing to understand here: only about 5% of the company's shares are actually available to trade right now, so demand is far outstripping supply. That changes in August, when the first batch of locked-up shares becomes available to sell. It is worth watching closely, since more supply hitting the market could cool the rally.

On the macro side, financials and industrials gained as tensions around the Strait of Hormuz eased and bets on a rate hike softened. Gold moved higher, and crude oil drifted down toward its 200-day moving average price.

The focus now shifts to today's Fed decision. No surprises are expected on the rate itself, but what matters is the tone. Specifically how new Fed Chair Kevin Walsh talks about inflation, what signals he sends about future policy, and his read on the broader economy. That commentary is likely to move markets more than the decision itself.

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Market Update: 16 June 2026

Markets gapped up and held their gains: the S&P 500 finished up 1.6% and the Nasdaq surged 3.0%, putting us essentially back at all-time highs. The catalyst was the U.S.-Iran deal that reopened the Strait of Hormuz.

Tech drove the day. Nvidia, Meta, Amazon, Google, Micron, and others led the charge. The rally was concentrated in large-cap growth, and that's an important distinction.

On the other side, energy stocks fell as oil dropped sharply because 20% of global oil can now move from the strait. Value names and defensives lagged. Gold and silver held up well, and crypto had a strong session with Ethereum jumping 10%.

The big event this week is Wednesday's Fed meeting: the first press conference for new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh. One macro development worth noting: the Bank of Japan hiked rates to 1% today, the highest since 1995. Last week, ECB also raised its rates.

The broader backdrop remains supportive: GDP above 3%, unemployment at 4.3%, and consumer spending holding up. Seasonality points to a rally continuing through late July before a potential pullback in August.

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Market Update: 15 June 2026

Last week was a volatile week with every day swings even in mega cap names. This morning we are pushing higher as the U.S. & Iran have struck the deal and moves toward signing. If it holds, oil falls further, inflation cools, and the Fed gets room to breathe.

The SpaceX IPO made history last week and was up 20% on day one, valued at $2.2 trillion. Remarkable, but we are watching the months ahead carefully. Employee and early investor selling will create meaningful headwinds once lock-ups expire.

The more important story is what's happening beneath the surface. The Mag 7 has been underperforming since early June. Small caps are at all-time highs while the S&P 500 sits 2% below its peak. This isn't a bubble bursting, it's capital rotating from seven crowded names into the broader market.

Simultaneously, Google, Meta, and SpaceX are issuing new shares to fund AI buildouts, reversing years of buybacks. That's a structural shift the market is still digesting.

On inflation, the 4.2% headline is almost entirely an energy story. Exclude that out and core inflation is near the Fed's target. Encouragingly, future inflation expectations actually declined, which matters most to policymakers.

Wednesday's FOMC is the week's key event. Kevin Warsh's first press conference as Fed Chair. Historically, markets rise less than 40% of the time in the three months following a new chair's debut.

We wouldn't be surprised by a 10% pullback through summer. We would view it as healthy and the setup for new all-time highs by December.

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Market Update: 12 June 2026

The S&P 500 finished up 1.75%, the Nasdaq 100 and small caps surged over 3%, all triggered by a single post from President Trump announcing a delay on Iran strikes. In one moment, the geopolitical war premium that had weighed on markets all week simply evaporated.

Two forces had dominated the week: doubts about the AI trade's durability, and elevated energy prices from Middle East tensions. Mega-cap stocks were swinging on macro headlines like speculative names. Thursday changed that narrative.

Early session fuel came from core PPI printing below consensus. Exclude food and fuel, and underlying inflation looked well-behaved, less oil pressure meant less inflation risk, less reason for the Fed to act. Gold confirmed that read, climbing 3% on the day.

Technically, the S&P 500 is ~3% off its all time highs. Given the cycle patterns and energy-driven volatility this year, some consolidation and pull back of 8-10% is possible before a push to new all-time highs by year-end. The bull case rests on one thing: earnings remain strong, with 29%+ growth in Q1 and 85% of companies beating estimates.

One thing to watch today, SpaceX lists on Nasdaq. Expect volatility today in the markets.

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Market Update: 11 June 2026

Yesterday brought a sharp, broad-based selloff with almost nowhere to hide. The S&P 500 fell 1.6%, the Nasdaq 100 dropped 2%, small caps lost 1%, and even the equal-weight S&P declined 1.3%. Only staples, energy, and utilities held up. We are opening higher today, with the 50-day moving average at 7,213 serving as immediate support.

The macro backdrop complicates the picture. CPI came in at 4.2% year-on-year, with energy services accounting for 31.1% of the composition. If oil continues recovering from recent lows, the disinflationary thesis faces a real headwind. The VIX has climbed from 15 last Friday to above 20.

Gold moved toward $4,000 while Bitcoin ETF flows flipped sharply negative. Both assets are sitting at technical levels where structure could begin forming, though it is too early to call.

Three catalysts now define the near-term calendar. The SpaceX IPO this Friday will test genuine demand against retail-driven FOMO. Japan's rate decision on June 15–16 carries hike expectations. And on June 17, the Fed's FOMC convenes — Kevin Warsh's first press conference as chair.

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Market Update: 10 June 2026

U.S. equities split sharply on Tuesday. The Nasdaq 100 fell over 1% while the S&P 500 closed down 0.26% — though both masked deeper intraday moves, with the Nasdaq touching -4.0% and the S&P -2.3% at session lows before recovering. Outside tech and energy, the picture was quietly constructive — the Russell 2000 gained 0.3% and every other sector closed green.

Two forces drove the rotation. Geopolitics first: Iran shot down a U.S. helicopter over the Strait of Hormuz, triggering a sell-first reaction. Gold also fell 1.6%, tracking risk assets rather than acting as a haven, weighed down by rising rate expectations.

The bigger driver was the SpaceX IPO. Fixed at $135/share with no roadshow, the deal is reportedly four times oversubscribed — roughly $300 billion in orders chasing a $75 billion offering. That capital is coming out of the most liquid positions available: profitable mega-cap tech and crypto.

Fundamentals remain intact. The S&P trades at 20.4x forward earnings — right on the 5-year average — with 29% earnings growth. The noise is technical and flow-driven, not fundamental.

Core CPI (May) came at 0.2% vs 0.3% expected. Oracle earnings after close, watched closely for AI infrastructure demand signals. Immediate S&P 500 support sits near the 50-day moving average around 7,200.

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Market Update: 9 June 2026

AI hardware led the recovery yesterday while everything else was flat to down. Semiconductors surged nearly 6%, memory names jumped 8%, Tesla added 5%. Only three sectors closed green and the equal-weight S&P was down 0.1%. Crypto stabilized after last week's selloff; metals remain directionless.

The catalyst was Nvidia securing more HBM memory capacity from SK Hynix, with reports suggesting memory prices could rise 3–4x within two years. Separately, the SpaceX IPO is pulling liquidity out of equities to free up allocation room — expect the same when OpenAI and Anthropic eventually list.

Friday's drop, though, wasn't just profit-taking. U.S. large-cap tech had outperformed the S&P by over 25% since the March lows, with semiconductors beating software by roughly 40% within that — statistically extreme readings by any measure.

The 1999 comparisons by investors are understandable but don't survive scrutiny. The Nasdaq ran 84% in under six months before the dot-com peak, then crashed 34% in five weeks. Today's Nasdaq is up roughly 34% over the past year — not even in the same conversation. A bubble requires both the melt-up and the violent unwind. We have neither at scale.

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Market Update: 8 June 2026

Friday was one of the toughest trading days of the year. The S&P 500 dropped 2.6%, the Nasdaq 4.8%, and memory stocks lost 15% in a single session. Gold, silver, Bitcoin, and even US Treasuries fell together. The dollar surged past 100. There was nowhere to hide except Staples, Financials & Healthcare.

The trigger was a jobs report that looked alarming but wasn't. The U.S. economy added 172,000 jobs in May — nearly double expectations — and markets immediately priced in Fed rate hikes. But roughly 70,000 of those jobs were temporary World Cup hospitality hires. Exclude them and job creation was entirely ordinary. Wages barely moved. This wasn't an inflation problem. It was a productivity story the market misread.

The real issue was a crowded, over-leveraged trade unwinding. For weeks, investors had been borrowing heavily to chase chip stocks higher. When prices cracked, forced selling cascaded — South Korea's market is down another 8% this morning as those positions continue to unwind. That's what Friday was: a cleanse, not a collapse.

The fundamentals haven't changed. Earnings revisions are running higher. Profit margins are at record highs. Capital spending is pushing higher. The bond market is pricing deflation, not a crisis.

What has changed is the playbook. The easy phase of the AI trade is over. Selectivity now matters.

A pullback to S&P 7,200 would be healthy and normal. We are watching Warsh's June 17th FOMC debut closely — his first statement could be the summer's most important market catalyst.

Stay disciplined. The thesis hasn't changed.

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Structured Notes | MyTimeEquity - Legacy Wealth Planners ​Structured Notes are custom-built investments products with flexible features for income, growth, and capital protection. Whether through steady coupon payments, downside barriers, or participation in market upside, these notes are designed to adapt to different market conditions and investor goa...

Market Update: 5 June 2026

Thursday was a split session. The S&P 500 dipped at the open, buyers stepped in, and it closed 0.4% higher. But the Nasdaq 100 finished down — tech and semiconductors took the hit while financials, industrials, healthcare, and utilities all had a strong day. We are opening lower again this morning.

The trigger was earnings. Broadcom and CrowdStrike both reported solid numbers, but these stocks carry sky-high expectations and anything short of exceptional gets sold. Semiconductors followed Broadcom lower across the board — Nvidia was the only name that held up.

Looking ahead, three things are worth watching. First, election-year seasonality — markets historically get choppier between June and October in midterm years. Second, the Fed. Kevin Warsh speaks for the first time at the June 17th FOMC meeting. Markets will be listening closely to understand his tone on interest rates. Third, SpaceX listing on 12 June.

Crypto remains under pressure with no clear floor in sight. Precious metals are drifting sideways — no strong direction either way.

The overall market trend is still intact. But conditions are ripe for sudden volatility and short-term pullbacks. Stay diversified, stay patient.

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Structured Notes | MyTimeEquity - Legacy Wealth Planners ​Structured Notes are custom-built investments products with flexible features for income, growth, and capital protection. Whether through steady coupon payments, downside barriers, or participation in market upside, these notes are designed to adapt to different market conditions and investor goa...

Market Update: 4 June 2026

Yesterday's session was a broad risk-off day led by tech and financials, while semiconductors stayed positive and healthcare and staples outperformed — a classic defensive rotation.

Two catalysts drove the sentiment shift. Bridgewater Ray Dalio's AI bubble warning raised the question markets had been avoiding: what is the actual return on AI spending? Companies are burning through entire annual compute budgets in weeks. With Anthropic filing for an IPO and OpenAI expected before year-end, the ROI question becomes impossible to sidestep. Second catalyst remains the middle east conflict.

On the technical side, mega-cap tech has been underperforming or merely matching the broader market for weeks. Since these names carry an outsized share of the S&P 500, their weakness pulls the index with them. AVGO and CRWD both reported strong earnings, but slight guidance misses against already elevated expectations have each pulling down over 10% in pre-market. Good results are no longer enough when the bar is this high.

None of this is surprising. We have flagged multiple times since the March lows that markets needed a pause. A 2–3% pullback and consolidation before the next leg higher would be completely normal and healthy.

Bitcoin briefly touched $61K this morning, now in oversold territory similar to February 2026 levels — worth watching for a technical bounce.

Trend intact. Consolidation is not a threat — it's part of the process.

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Structured Notes | MyTimeEquity - Legacy Wealth Planners ​Structured Notes are custom-built investments products with flexible features for income, growth, and capital protection. Whether through steady coupon payments, downside barriers, or participation in market upside, these notes are designed to adapt to different market conditions and investor goa...