Investor Agent

READ IMAGE, THEN READ THIS. 🙄 . . . IT MUST END ❌

1. Too many in our space allow the media to gas-light them into thinking the market or economy is great;
2. Too many have their “heads-in-the-sand” and lay-and-pray . . . hoping things will get better;
3. Too many DO NOT perform their own market research NOR do their brokers who SHOULD be leading from the front;
4. Too many are not being proactive based on the data below and remain reactive;
5. Too many do not understand real estate IS a market . . . it ebbs and flows . . . goes up and down;
6. Too many were not there during the ’08 crisis, so they have no beacon . . . no perspective;
7. Too many ONLY know how to play in the retail side of our space, so when the market corrects, they suffer BIG TIME.

All said, allow us to shed light on the pure ignorance of blurting out a statement like in this POST, especially one that is NOT supported by any data, whatsoever.

First, let us begin by stating we know the author of said post . . . good guy and we respect him for what he’s done in the space. This is NOT an attack on him at all, but strictly to the gross oversight within our industry.

Second, we want to preface the below by stressing that NO ONE wants to be in a recession or see the real estate market crash, but we are here and IT’S HAPPENING, so we must put our boots on and get to work.

REMEMBER when they said, “The market is great, we just need more inventory?” And, when I say THEY, I mean the MEDIA and NAR.

Did you ever think about how a false-narrative can lead to big revenue? Media = advertising dollars. NAR = due$.

Despite the REAL data behind the curtain, they continued to stoke the fire, gas-lighting the masses and filling their coffer$ along the way.

And by the way . . . how’s this statement aging thus far??? “The market is great, we just need more inventory?”

Well, we can tell you, NOT GOOD. Year-Over-Year, State of Florida inventory has INCREASED 80-90%. In fact:

35% of Active listings are 100+ Days On Market (DOM);
35% of Active listings have seen price drops;
25% of pendings have gone back active;
45% low on Mortgage Applications
The U.S, collectively, has lost 288 BILLION in equity since 2nd Q of 2022.

Let’s talk about the economy, which drives our space.

For starters, this POST claimed NO recession. Well, NEWS FLASH . . . we have, technically, been in a recession since Q3 of 2023.

Definition of Recession: “Two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) - value of all good and services a country produces.

Once again, there are many in our space that allow the MEDIA to gas-light them in to thinking different, instead of doing their own research.

Historically, two negative quarters of GDP has been the definition of a recession and has been widely known and accepted by financial authorities, UNTIL the Biden Admin took over and Janet Yellen decided to play games and play dumb . . . as the masses drank it up.

So, now that we are already here, what is driving said RECESSION?

- Historic high Consumer Debt. Yes, student, auto and credit card debt is 5x, 6x what is was in 2008.
- Savings in the US has dropped 1 Trillion dollars; super low.
- The auto industry is seeing their repo market explode
- Inflation is through the roof
- Interest rates are still high enough to keep buyers priced out of market.
- Increased insurance policies
- Increased property taxes
- Increased HOA dues/assessments
- Unemployment has increased; up 14% year-over-year

If you think employment is strong, then think again. Many of the employment numbers are: part-time jobs, 2nd jobs or government jobs.

But, aside from that, we already know what your’e going to say . . . “IT’S DIFFERENT THIS TIME!”

Migration, Equity and Tighter Lending. 🙄 Got it.

MIGRATION: Here in FL, we have seen higher levels of Migration in the past and ’08 still showed up. Plus, many of the zip codes w the highest migration, NOW have the highest number of vacant properties

EQUITY: is dropping. Simple economics is already showing that Buyer demand is Way DOWN and Supply is WAY UP, so what does that equate to? Correct, prices FALL. And, as shown above, it’s already happening with 288 billion lost thus far.

TIGHTER LENDING: Yeah, not so fast here, either. Since 2019, roughly, 1.7 million loans were written 5-year arms. Just in case you forgot . . . it’s 2024. In some documented scenarios, mortgage amounts WENT UP $2000 on top of their existing mortgage. How many of those homeowners will continue to pay?

If the above feels like you are a speed-bag, then just focus on this . . . the most basic metric/equation to consider:

Home values went up 50%. Incomes ONLY went up 5%.

Is there anyone here that feels incomes are going up 45% to match the home value increase? Anyone in here feel the above DATA provided is going to heal overnight?

We have a recipe for disaster here and we as licensed professionals MUST stop drinking the kool-aid spoon-fed by the media.

YOU ARE BEING GAS-LIT bc they know you will drink it in. They know you just want to feel good in the moment, instead of DEMANDING those responsible for our economic policies to produce real results. .

Well, in real estate, this is our business and we do NOT sit and wait. We take action at Investor Agent.

At Investor Agent, we follow the bread-crumbs . . . we constantly read the tea leaves and are ALWAYS looking ahead . . . down the road. Too many in this space can only see a foot in front of them and their RE businesses, unfortunately, will suffer greatly.

We saw it in 2008. MANY of the largest brokerages/teams went belly-up and it will happen again. 😢

Nationwide, 33% of all licensees were out of the business during 2008. A close friend stated that that number was closer to 60% in Jacksonville. 😢 Will that be you?

The ONLY way our industry heals is for prices to fall, so Buyers feel the appeal and pull the trigger and buy, thus bringing harmony back to the space. Right now, Buyers are just priced-out of the market.

Buyer Demand ⬇️
Active Supply ⬆️
Home Prices ⬇️

The math is really that simple, but you must take action and lay the tracks for tomorrow.

During the ‘0-8 crisis, our little brokerage averaged 40-60 closings a month.

How did we do it? Follow us on social, as we are just getting started.

-RH

This is what a popped-bubble looks like in real estate.

Current situation: Many sellers are still stuck in yesterday's prices AND buyers are priced out of the market due to:

⬆️ Historic consumer debt
⬆️ Inflation
⬆️ High interest rates.

SO, time will tell, but until the economy strengthens and the above comes down, the ONLY way to bridge the gap is for prices to come ⬇️ . . . and they will; it's the only lever to pull at the moment for our industry to thrive.

25-30% of real estate listings are 100+ days on the market
25-30% of real estate listings have seen price-drops.
25-30% of Pendings fall through and go back Active.

Sellers are feeling the effects of the economy, as well, and they will NEED to have access to their equity. To do this, they will sell at a discount to realize/capture any equity they may have in their homes.

Strap in folks . . . this may get bumpy.

Not sure how to best navigate a "Down-Market?"
Join our community: JoinInvestorAgent.com

Are you ready?

Thank you Kevin and for inviting us to the Lake Nona Realtor Mastermind. Great gathering.

CONNECTING, LEARNING & GROWING.
#2024

https://www.wptv.com/money/real-estate-news/6-new-property-insurance-companies-enter-florida-market?fbclid=IwAR34CHHH_GFZ2ERSo29abuv6RcHSseilyF6CA8CeMfXevbrmUc8yveyhPeM

6 new property insurance companies enter Florida market The new year now means six new companies are ready to enter the state and start writing homeowners insurance policies, according to industry experts.

BLACK FLAG!!!

The market is changing significantly. The tide is turning from retail to investment, once again (see '08). There is a lot of pain in the economy and distressed assets will once again rule the day. Boats filled with investor/cash-buyers are fast approaching in preparation to feast on discounted deals. You too, must prepare for the market ahead. Will you be ready?


RH Richards

TRUTH.

Most real estate agents have their heads in the sand and rely on mouthpieces, which only stoke a false reality.

At the end of the day, real estate is a market and it is NOT bullet-proof. -see '08 Housing Crisis.

We've been here before, so follow the bread-crumbs, read the tea-leaves and DO THE MATH.


RH Richards

HOW TO KNOW REAL ESTATE IS IN A "BUBBLE."
⚠️ WARNING ⚠️:
YOU DO NOT need to be a rocket-scientist to figure out.

PREFACE: Bubbles can be fun, so enjoy the party, but as we all know . . . most parties DO NOT last forever, so as you enjoy the good times, just know the hangover is soon to follow.

WHAT TIPS US OFF THAT SHIZZ IS GETTING CRAZY? WELL . . .

WHEN, every listing is getting multiple offers . . .

AND, every Listing Agent responds that "it's going highest & best" (whether BS or not) . . . 🚀. Seriously, like every listing gets the same response from a Listing Agent. 🙄

THEN, that is your ah-ha moment that we have entered into a
BUBBLE, as prices get manipulated higher and higher.
Simple, right?

FURTHER, when you see listings "selling over list" price . . . 10-grand, 20-grand . . . 50-grand . . . as market values shoot to the moon. 🚀

NOW, many would claim that's a great market, and yes, it is, but only for a hot minute before the BUBBLE POPS 📌and it has. WHY?

We all know that incomes DO NOT go up that fast and in order for a market to sustain itself, THEN incomes must follow. THEY. DID. NOT.

This math is very simple. When incomes DO NOT increase the same % as home values, THEN BUYER BEWARE.

DO. THE. MATH.

The above started in full-force back in 2018 and we knew to start laying tracks for a correction. 🎯

Unfortunately, many many real estate agents will be out of the game bc they did not prepare for the correction. 😥


RH Richards

Bigger deals are never easy, but we got it DONE & DONE! Ivy Partners

The Keller Williams myth, the legend, the people-builder, Richard Carpentieri, shares insights about residential investing. We'll publish this one soon. Stay tuned to hear Rich drop knowledge about...

- How to capitalize IF the market softens, and what it means to your investors.

- How to tell the difference between a serious investor and someone who will waste your time.

- Three gold nuggets of advice for new agents who want to position themselves to sell investors.

- The best type of listings to pursue for agents who want to buy rentals while rebuilding their credit.

- Focusing on customer EXPERIENCE (over "customer service") to turn your investors into raving fans.

- Two of his property acquisition "non-negotiables"
.. and a barrel of juicy property management tricks to optimize cash flow long term (to be continued!)