Coindeposit fx

Neodymium Prices Rise to 5-Month High Commodity

Neodymium prices rose to 642.5 thousand RMB per tonne, the highest in five months driven by supply constraints. Mines in Myanmar's Pangwa region, which is a significant source of rare earth minerals including neodymium, have been shut down for inspection since September 6-7, with no clear reopening date. Furthermore, Malaysia plans to ban the export of rare earth raw materials, though the implementation date remains unspecified. China has also imposed restrictions on the export of certain metals crucial to the semiconductor industry, raising concerns about potential limitations on the export of other critical minerals, including rare earths.

Oil Prices Ease from 10-Month - Commodity

WTI crude futures dipped below $89 per barrel on Wednesday, after touching a 10-month high earlier in the day, as a surprise build in U.S. crude inventories offset expectations of tight crude supply for the rest of the year. The latest EIA data showed that the US crude inventories rose by 4 million barrels, compared to expectations of a 1.9 million-barrel drop. Meanwhile, concerns persist as production cuts by major oil producers would continue to tighten the market in the coming months. OPEC projected that global oil demand would increase by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024 and anticipated a substantial deficit of 3.3 million barrels per day in the fourth quarter of this year. The US Energy Information Administration (EIA) also expected a smaller deficit of 230K barrels in the next quarter, while the IEA stated that oil output cuts by Saudi Arabia and Russia through the end of the year would result in a significant deficit through the fourth quarter of 2023.

Confluence and Technical Analysis:

Technical analysts rely heavily on confluence to support their trading decisions. In technical analysis, confluence typically requires several indications of a buy and sell signal combined together to affirm a trade decision.

One of the most common points in technical charting where a confluence of indicators is used to determine a signal is at a potential reversal. Reversals are commonly known to occur at resistance and support levels drawn on a technical chart.

A price approaching a particular resistance or support line has the potential to reverse or continuing pushing through the trendline, which can send mixed signals.

Thus, traders will often watch for several indicators occurring simultaneously or within a short-term time frame to confirm the trend through confluence. (Investopedia)

Moving Average road map:

5 day EMA- Strong Momentum
10 day EMA- Short Term Trend
20 day EMA- Pullback Support
50 day SMA- Uptrend Defense Line
100 day SMA- Big Price Dip
200 day SMA- Bulls last stand
250 day SMA- Value Zone

This was a great response Dan Fitzpatrick had on Twitter.

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Trading Mindset Cheat Sheet

To be a profitable trader you need three things:

1. A trading system with an edge.
2. Proper position sizing per trade.
3. The right trading mindset.

If you don’t have the right mindset for trading then the other two will not work.
Here is a trader cheat sheet of the principles you must understand to create the right mindset in trading. A trading cheat sheet for the psychology of profitability.

•A new trader must understand that trading is not a get rich quick scheme, it is a professional endeavor that requires learning how to create quantified trading systems that have an edge over other participants.

•Professional trading is not gambling it is like running a business. Profitable trading is more like operating a casino than emotional gambling if done correctly. Think like a business manager not an emotional gambler.

•Successful traders have an edge in trading systems and signals not predicting and having strong opinions. Traders don’t know the future, they know what has the best odds of working in the present. Traders should have a flexible opinion about price action.

•Great traders have losing trades, profitability doesn’t come from perfection it comes from creating good risk/reward ratios at entry. Losing trades must be accepted as just part of doing business.

•To keep a stable mindset, position sizing should be kept consistent and at a size that doesn’t cause excessive stress, emotions to become too loud, or ego engagement where you want to be right.

•A trader must have faith in their trading system. This comes through research and backtesting into a method that has a positive expectancy and fits their belief system.

•A trader must have faith in their self to execute their system with discipline. This comes with time and success in ex*****on. A trader must trust their self to not let impulses cause bad decisions.

•Traders must have the mindset of discipline to follow their trading plan’s rules and believe that a good trade is one that followed their system regardless of results.

•A trader must have the perseverance to trade their system through losing streaks and drawdowns understanding that it is just part of the process.

•Trading results must be kept separate from a traders self worth. A trader can’t control market outcomes, they can only control their own actions.

•A positive mindset must be maintained to avoid a negative emotional spiral. Focus on the positives on every trade, like you kept losses small or followed your process with discipline.

•Don’t become euphoric with big wins or depressed during losses or drawdowns, keep your emotional equilibrium after each trading outcome. Stay off tilt in either direction. Each trade is just one of the next one hundred, divide you emotional reaction between them.

Quit these four bad trading habits.

I agree with

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When Resistance & Support Do Not Matter

Bull Markets have no long term resistance, & Bear Markets have no long term support.

After a Bearish market environment many sellers & weak hands get washed out of the market during the process of lower lows over a long period of time. During a 20% drop in prices into a bear market key support levels are lost over and over again, stop losses are triggered, rallies are sold into & fear slowly takes hold as people see all the lost money evaporating from their account. Lower highs & lower lows is the longer term pattern on the charts as people pile out of their holdings. A down trending market is the best way to shake out the most holders and set up the opportunity for prices to stabilize and start a trend back up with a lot of the selling pressure relieved toward the end of downtrend. The major change with price action during market corrections and Bear Markets is that dips stop being bought and are replaced with further dips in price without buyers showing up to cause bounces.

Also buying key support levels does not work as supports do not hold & are instead breakouts of price ranges to the down side. The odds are on your side to sell strength short in bear markets to keep yourself on the right side of the trend and flow of capital out of the market. Bear markets in the stock market are usually short lived and usually only last for a year or two. The big rallies in bear markets are primarily caused by short covering rallies to lock in profits after a deep plunge in prices which are then chased by bottom pickers.

The end of a bear market arrives when selling is finally exhausted. With many longer term position holders left that weathered the storm and with dip buyers becoming the majority of the new holders that got in at much lower prices these new holders are less apt to be stopped out of their new positions which begins to form a new bottom that holds.

Big trends in bull or bear markets are usually followed by a time of price consolidation where prices stabilize and find new ranges to trade inside of. Support and resistance begins to have meaning again and the market as a whole starts to go sideways with neither a big return nor loss in the stock market indexes as a whole.

This is the time period of neutrality and uncertainty where traders and investors do not know if the last trend is over or whether it will resume. The is a market that is being traded back and forth with not a larger amount of accumulation or distribution to create trends.

The primary characteristic of a bull market and the leading stocks in it that shows it is truly bullish is the ability to break out to new highs over and over again, first 52 week highs and then all time highs. Short sellers get hurt during bullish conditions because resistance no longer holds back the advancing prices. As resistance is broken over and over again short sellers are forced to cover setting off more momentum that then draws in the momentum traders to buy the strength. In bull markets buying is always rewarded eventually.

Buying dips give traders and investors the chance to catch the next trip to all time highs and being stubborn with long positions is eventually rewarded. Buying high and selling higher is also a winning system in a bull market. Bull markets usually last for several years and are where the bulk of the capital appreciation comes from for the long term returns in the stock market.

Learning to get out of investments at the end of a big bull run would dramatically improve the returns of long term buy and hold investors. For traders to switch from buying price strength in stocks to shorting them in downtrends would dramatically improve their returns as well.

Having trading rules that identify price patterns for range bound markets, up trends, and down trends so you can trade according to the environment will greatly improve your profitability. This is something trend followers & breakout traders are great at.

Where Do Our Greatest Trading Mistakes Come From?

Where do our greatest trading mistakes come from while we are trading the financial markets? They arise primarily from within. It is not the price action that causes our missteps and mistakes but our response to the price action.

1. Your ego will cause you to allow a small loss to grow into a big loss because you do not want to be made wrong by exiting with a loss. Ego wants to hold on until you can at least get back to even. Not locking in a loss but holding it until it gets back to even gives the ego some gratification. This is also what creates many resistance levels at old support when people are given a second chance to get out at even.

2. Trading what you think is going to happen instead of what is happening can keep people on the wrong side of trends for days, weeks, and months. Imposing your own opinions on price action instead of following it can cause big losses or to miss big trends while think the market is wrong and we are right.

3. Refusing to see the clear signals on a chart or follow the signals in your system because you do not believe they are correct is a rejection of discipline and reality. Anything can happen in the market it is our job to trade it.

4. Most bad trading decisions usually come from a lack of discipline and self control over the emotions of fear and greed.

5. Discretionary traders seek to use their experience in profitable trading as an edge in their present trading. If you have no experience in past profitable trading you have no edge to exploit. Your discretionary trading decisions are more likely to just be mistakes.

6. Mechanical system traders seek to use their backtesting of profitable trading signals in the past as an edge in their present trading. If their trading signals were not backtested to ensure they were profitable in the past they have no edge to exploit. Their mechanical trading signals are more likely to just be opinions that are mistakes.

7. Putting too much weight on any one trade whether it be through position size or risk causes mistakes. Each trade should be just one of the next 100 with it not being a big deal in the great scheme of your trading career.
Mistakes are when you fail to follow your trading plan. If you do not have a trading plan all your trades are random in nature so they are all mistakes outside a defined strategy.