Carole Inferrera, MBA

Monday Morning Mortgage Market Bulletin
Date: Monday, March 30, 2026

Mortgage Headlines from Last Week

1.Rates Continue Volatile Climb—Holding Mid-to-Upper 6% Range
Mortgage rates remained elevated in the ~6.25%–6.50% range, with intraday volatility driven by inflation data and Treasury market weakness.
· Markets continue repricing “higher-for-longer” rate expectations
· Limited investor demand for bonds added upward pressure

2. Inflation Data Reinforces Fed Caution
Core PCE (Fed’s preferred inflation gauge) came in sticky, signaling:
· Inflation progress is slowing
· Fed likely to delay rate cuts deeper into 2026
Impact: Treasury yields moved higher, widening MBS spreads.

3. Treasury Auctions Show Soft Demand
Last week’s Treasury auctions were met with weaker indirect demand, a key signal that:
· Global buyers are less aggressive at current yield levels
· Yields may need to rise further to attract capital

4. Housing Activity Stabilizing—But Rate Sensitive
· Pending home sales showed modest resilience
· Buyer activity improved briefly during rate dips
· Spring season demand remains highly rate-dependent

5. Inventory Growth Continues to Build
· Inventory up ~6–7% YoY
· More listings hitting the market ahead of peak season
· Sellers increasingly pricing competitively

Key Economic Events – Week Ahead

Monday (Mar 30)
· No major releases (market positioning day)
Tuesday (Mar 31)
· Case-Shiller Home Price Index
· FHFA Home Price Index
Wednesday (Apr 1)
· ISM Manufacturing
· ADP Employment Report
Thursday (Apr 2)
· Initial Jobless Claims
· ISM Services
Friday (Apr 3)
· Nonfarm Payrolls (Jobs Report)
· Unemployment Rate
· Average Hourly Earnings
Market Focus:
· Labor market strength (Jobs Report) = primary rate driver
· Wage growth = key inflation signal
· Manufacturing & services data = recession vs. growth signals

10-Year Treasury & MBS Trend Summary

Current Snapshot:
· 10-Year Treasury: ~4.15% – 4.30%
· Mortgage Rates: ~6.25% – 6.50%
Trend Analysis:
· Rates remain in an upward bias with volatility
· Market struggling to find a ceiling for yields
· Yield curve gradually re-steepening
MBS Performance:
· Spreads remain wide vs. historical norms
· Price action: reactive and headline-driven
· Volatility limiting rate improvement
Key Drivers:
· Inflation persistence
· Treasury supply/demand imbalance
· Global geopolitical risk
· Fed policy uncertainty

Housing Inventory & Home Price Update

Inventory:
· Up ~6–7% YoY
· Still below pre-2020 levels but improving steadily
· More balanced market beginning to emerge
Home Prices:
· National trends: flat to slightly negative
· Increased price reductions across many markets
· Days on market rising (~55–60 DOM)
New Construction:
· Builders cautiously increasing supply
· Ongoing constraints: labor, materials, financing
Takeaway for Sales:
· More inventory = more borrower opportunity
· Softer pricing = improved buyer negotiation power
· Educating borrowers on timing remains critical

Key Risks to Rates This Week

Risks to Monitor:
· Strong Jobs Report → Rates Spike Higher
· Wage Inflation Surprise → Extends high-rate environment
· Weak Treasury demand → pushes yields upward
· Geopolitical headlines → sudden volatility

Weekly Bottom Line

The market remains in a volatile holding pattern, with rates biased higher but highly data-dependent.
· Inflation is no longer falling fast enough to justify near-term rate cuts
· The labor market is now the primary swing factor for rates
· Housing is stabilizing, but affordability continues to cap demand
For Originators & Sales Leaders:
· This is a strategy-driven market—not a rate-driven one
· Borrower education and urgency messaging are key
· Purchase opportunity is improving due to inventory + pricing shifts
Bottom Line:

The window for rate relief is delayed—but the purchase market is still very much alive. Ex*****on and communication will separate top producers in this environment.

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