Corey Ecton - Nature Untamed

Live in southern Kansas for today's storms...

LIVE - Northern Oklahoma / Southern Kansas Severe Weather Live storm chasing from south-central Kansas. Tornado Watch in effect for the area until 9PM CDT.

20260414 // 1600 CDT
**** *!*SEVERE WEATHER THREAT UPDATE*!* ****

As of 4pm CDT, most of central, western and northern Oklahoma is under a tornado watch until 11pm CDT this evening. A lone severe thunderstorm is currently making its way across the Red River between Harrold and Wichita Falls, Texas into parts of Cotton and Tillman counties in Oklahoma with winds to 60 mph and ping pong ball size hail possible in that cell.

A dryline is evident from southern Kansas across northwest Oklahoma into the Texas panhandle per latest observational data. It is this dryline, coinciding with an approaching mid-level trough of low pressure, that should serve as the impetus for thunderstorm development this afternoon.

Any storm that develops will be capable of all severe hazards including very large hail to 3.5" in diameter, winds that could gust to hurricane force (75 mph) and tornadoes, perhaps a few strong ones as a nocturnal low level jet moves north into parts of Oklahoma tonight.

More to come. If a live stream goes up, I will share the link in an additional post.

--Jeremy Moses

29260411 // 2142CDT

*** Severe Weather Update ***

…Degraded severe weather threat still exists for Sunday through Wednesday…

Good evening.

Trends for severe weather have been monitored since this past Monday. Which severe weather potential still exists for the period, the nature of the risk has become more conditional as the ejecting trough is not projected to remain as defined as it was earlier this week.

This does inject some conditionality into the forecast and changes the complexion of what once looked to have a sustained, widespread upper-echelon severe weather potential. This is precisely why situations such as this should be monitored prior to using alarming verbiage.

Sunday across the central and southern Plains is quite conditional owing to a substantial corridor of precipitation expected across Oklahoma overnight into the early hours of Sunday morning. Subsidence behind the precipitation is expected to linger in place, but the duration and intensity of which is unclear. Should the atmosphere recover in timely fashion later in the day Sunday, a severe weather threat could materialize in western Oklahoma during the afternoon and evening hours. All hazards would be possible with this activity.

Monday’s severe weather potential looks even more conditional across the southern Plains, where a substantial cap is expected to persist. Relatively weak forcing appears to be catalyst. Most areas will not see any precipitation, however, should storms manage to develop, they would likely become severe, capable of all hazards.

Tuesday’s threat has a bit more suitability as the main trough ejects out of the Four Corners region, enhancing the forcing across the region. Despite this, the dryline boundary still appears to remain a bit diffuse, and wind profiles are marginally-supportive for a wider-scale severe weather event. Wednesday has a similar setup before the trough ejects north and east, ushering in a temporary respite from the humidity and severe weather potential before flow becomes southwesterly later in the week in advance of the next synoptic trough.

While the southern Plains are mentioned here, it is important to note that a secondary corridor supportive of severe weather will likely exist Tuesday across the upper Midwest close to the warm front.

While the outcome has become more opaque through the period, it should continue to be monitored. A reduction in severe weather potential is NOT an elimination of potential.

-Corey

20260409 // 1703CDT

*** Multi-Day Severe Weather Event ***

Good afternoon.

We are another day closer to a multi-day severe weather event which will commence on Saturday for the southern Plains.

Saturday will feature a predominant hail and wind threat across the Texas panhandle extending into west-central Texas with Sunday presenting a more conditional risk for the eastern Texas panhandle and western / central Oklahoma, reliant upon early day convection eroding and permitting the atmosphere to recover and destabilize. A lot remains in question today pertaining to this potential threat with more information likely as higher resolution data comes into view.

Monday and particularly Tuesday across the central and southern Plains look quite robust as the quality of airmass in place will be capable of fostering a higher-end all hazards severe weather event.

Tuesday at this point does appear to have all the contributing ingredients to yield a potentially remarkable severe weather event for a large corridor of the U.S. central and southern Plains extending into the middle and upper Mississippi valley regions. A potent trough will eject out of the Four Corners region during this timeframe and adequate moisture will take up residence in the threat area. Timing with this trough ejection has maintained a suitable aesthetic, suggesting the aforementioned potential of a higher-end severe weather threat exists.

Of course, there is NOTHING certain at this range and each day's severe weather scenario will have a co-dependency on how the previous day evolves. The only day that looks to have an exemption to this would be the Tuesday threat owing to a very favorable trough right exit region placement coupled within an upper-tier parameter space. This should be watched carefully as we progress through the period.

*** Key Takeaway ***

At this time, there is a lack of higher-quality / higher-resolution data. As we move forward through the period, the picture should become more clear, particularly the second half of this coming weekend. Now is a good time to review your severe weather safety plan should you reside in any of the aforementioned areas. Also, it is imperative to ensure you are receiving your weather-related information from a reliable source.

More to come....watching.

-Corey

Spring is about to become a bit more interesting.

Multi-day severe weather potential is on the table. Details will be revealed with higher-quality data, but all hazards appear to be on the table, particularly for Sunday (Apr 12) and Monday (Apr 13).

This active pattern appears to sustain for awhile with more perspective days of severe risk possible.

* Map shown depicts the GFS placement of the southwest troughing.

-Corey

1736 CDT 10 MAR 2026

Corey is live right now on YouTube...

LIVE - Central Oklahoma Severe Weather Live storm chasing from central Oklahoma. Tornado Watch in effect for the area until 11PM CDT.

20250928 //2230CDT
**** Brief Tropical Update ***
..Imelda no longer a US landfall risk, but heavy rain expected for coastal Carolinas...

Good evening.

Tropical Storm is currently causing tropical storm conditions in the Bahamas as of 10pm. Max winds are 40 mph, central pressure is 998 millibars and the storm is moving due north at 9 mph. All US land tropical cyclone watches were previously discontinued.

Imelda is expected to be turned eastward over the next couple of days while moving through favorable atmospheric and warm waters. This will keep it offshore of the US East Coast. However, even with this being the case, enough tropical moisture will be pulled north into coastal areas of the Carolinas to produce heavy rainfall up to 8 inches through Tuesday. Meanwhile, the combination of and Category 4 will produce very high surf and dangerous rip currents for much of the east coast through the week.

Although it appears that the US has dodged a landfall from , the tropical season is still officially in progress and it only takes one storm to cause problems. Therefore, do not let your guard down yet if you live on the coast... we still have 2 months of the season left.

--Jeremy

20250927 // 1418CDT/1518EDT
**** Tropical Update ****

Potential Tropical Cyclone fully organized this morning into a Tropical Depression over the southwestern Atlantic. Currently, Nine has sustained winds of 35 mph, and is moving northwest at 6 mph. Due to proximity to the US coastline, a Tropical Storm WATCH was issued at 11am ET for the coastal areas of Brevard, Volusia, Indian River, St Lucie, and Martin counties in Florida. This includes communities like Daytona Beach, Cocoa Beach, Port St Lucie, Fort Pierce, Melbourne, Vero Beach, and Stuart.

is expected to intensify into over the next 12-24 hours and reach hurricane intensity early in the coming workweek given favorable atmospheric dynamics and a high Oceanic Heat Content from the Gulf Stream. The track forecast has shifted as the system has organized and a defined low pressure is able to be initialized. A deep trough, currently over the eastern US, as well as the combination of a ridge over the north Atlantic and , which is currently a major category 4 hurricane well north of the Leeward Island chain and will not have any impacts on the US beyond high surf, will be responsible for the ultimate track that future takes. There is a low confidence beyond day 3, but most of the midday guidance suggests that will likely turn out to sea as opposed to making a US landfall.

Regardless of whether future does make a landfall on the US mainland, there remains the possibility of at least some wind, rain and surge impacts anywhere from Florida to the Carolinas. Persons in these areas are advised to review their tropical cyclone preparedness plans and ensure that they have enough supplies on hand.

Remain vigilant. Further updates will be forthcoming.

--Jeremy Moses

20250925 // 1343CDT

*** Tropical Update ***

Wow, what a season it has been thus far! We survived the past month with hardly a system to mention with a largely stable regime in place bolstered by an unfavorable MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation). This, in the wake of impressive SST's (Sea Surface Temperatures) in place across the Caribbean and Gulf, has been quite the anomaly.

As we are poised to close out the month of September, a dramatic ramp-up in activity is underway, most notably in the far western Atlantic, and yes, a central east coast threat may exist as well.

Invest 93L has become Tropical Storm Humberto in the past 24 hours. While slow to intensify, the system is present. Invest 94L, the westernmost of the two systems, is currently positioned just north of the Dominican Republic and is expected to fully emerge into the warm shallows in vicinity of the islands, and translate northwestward toward the Bahamas. During this time, the system will encounter several different meteorological components which could exert impacts on the system.

Without delving too deeply into the core meteorology with these two systems, it is important to note that there will be at least some degree of binary relationship element between the two systems. Their proximity to each other will be the determiner as to the significance of this relationship and impacts to storm motion and energy bleed-off, which could occur with a very small partition separating the two. At this time, it does not appear that the impacts related to proximity will be destructive to either or both systems, but track-related fluctuations may be more notable than usual.

It does look at this time like both will have the potential to reach hurricane strength. Given the environmental contributors, particularly to Invest 94L and it's proximity and potential to make a U.S. landfall, the focus will be on this system as we move forward.

This evolution up to and including landfall will be fast. Global guidance has a consensus on this reaching in vicinity of the northern South Carolina coast in vicinity of Myrtle Beach, sometime midday Monday at the earlies, perhaps as late as mid-afternoon Tuesday.

This continues to be a system with an above-average degree of uncertainty attached. More updates will be forthcoming as higher resolution information comes available.

-Corey

20250923 // 2146CDT
**** Tropical Weather Update ****

A quick post just for situational awareness this evening. We've been quiet because there's not been much to get vocal about. That could be about to change.

First, Hurricane , while causing high surf along the eastern US seaboard, is not expected to pose a threat to American interests. It is a major hurricane with winds of 125 mph and a central pressure of 953 millibars. The next landmass Gabrielle is expected to directly impact will be the Azores Islands off Portugal late this week as a hurricane, though weaker owing to the cooler ocean waters in that portion of the north Atlantic.

Closer to our area of interest, two tropical disturbances, 93L and 94L respectively, are in the central to west Atlantic. Both are anticipated to further organize over the next week.

93L: Located as of 7pm CDT about 750 miles east of the Leeward Islands. This disturbance has been getting better organized over the past 24 hours and is currently outlooked with a high chance of developing into the next tropical depression in the next 2 (70%) to 7 (90%) days. It should pass north of the Leeward Island chain, however a lot of its future will depend on the influence of 94L.

94L, as of 7pm CDT, was over the extreme northeast Caribbean over or very near the Virgin Islands. It is expected to turn from its current west-northwesterly heading to more of a northwest heading. While interaction with the islands of Puerto Rico and Hispaniola will likely play some role in limiting intensification in the next couple of days, once 94L arrives in the southwestern Atlantic it has enough warm water and favorable kinematics to work with that this could organize into a tropical depression as well, perhaps somewhere in the vicinity of the Bahamas. From there, where 94L goes is really dependent on a trough which is currently situated off the southeast US coastline. The most likely scenario is for it to scoop up 94L and shove it east and northeast. That would also act to keep 93L from being a US mainland threat as it would also be turned north and northeast. However, it could be close for the east coast.

In its wake, whatever 94L leaves behind in terms of atmospheric support and Oceanic Heat Content will also impact 93L's ultimate intensity.

The next two storm names up, should one or both of these attain tropical storm status, are Humberto and Imelda. Note that as of right now, since we don't technically have well defined centers of low pressure, all of the details are still very much up in the air.

Regardless of whether one or both disturbances do develop, higher than usual surf -- already present thanks to the influence of -- may very well persist for the foreseeable future along east coast beaches.

Remain vigilant. Although the season to this point has seen less activity approach the US mainland, it just takes one storm to change everything. Now is a really good time to make sure you're prepared for any future storms.

--Jeremy Moses

Need to get back to these soon.