Fayette County Skywarn

Ok. severe potential increases this evening into tomorrow. we could see non thunderstorm winds of 45 mph today and tonight as well as a stout line of convection rolll into out area around the 4 am timeframe. By the time the storms reach us i would say more of a damaging wind threat and heavy rain for us with the outbreak occurring earlier today well north and west of our area.

Have a wx radio handy programmed and turned on tonight just in case severe warning or more are issued for the area...

For sure a Stay Weather Aware overnight tonight...

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
..WINDY CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT...

Windy conditions will develop this afternoon and continue into
tonight, even outside of any thunderstorms that develop.

Southerly winds will gust up to 30-40 mph, with a few gusts to 45
mph possible. Gusty winds will blow around unsecured objects. The
wind gusts may make driving more difficult, especially for high
profile vehicles on east-west oriented roads.

Heavy shower moving southeast across eastern Fayette co... expect brief heavy rainfall and some gusty winds....

Line of thunderstorms is developing across southern Indiana along a cold front pushing our direction.. in about 4 hours or so these could be affecting our area. At this time it looks like strong wind small hail threat but we will continue to monitor...

EVENT: Flash Flood Warning
ALERT:
FFWLMK

The National Weather Service in Louisville has issued a

* Flash Flood Warning for...
Fayette County in central Kentucky...

* Until 345 PM EDT.

* At 1052 AM EDT, Doppler radar indicated thunderstorms producing
heavy rain across the warned area. Between 1.5 and 2.5 inches of
rain have fallen. Additional rainfall amounts of 0.5 to 2 inches
are possible in the warned area. Flash flooding is ongoing or
expected to begin shortly.

HAZARD...Flash flooding caused by thunderstorms.

SOURCE...Radar.

IMPACT...Flash flooding of small creeks and streams, urban
areas, highways, streets and underpasses as well as
other poor drainage and low-lying areas.

* Some locations that will experience flash flooding include...
Lexington, Northland, Chevy Chase, Thoroughbred Acres, Cadentown,
U K Arboretum, Bryan Station, Highlands, Meadowthorpe and Cardinal
Hill.
INSTRUCTIONS:
Turn around, don't drown when encountering flooded roads. Most flood
deaths occur in vehicles.
TARGET AREA: Fayette, KY

540
AWUS01 KWNH 090807
FFGMPD
TNZ000-KYZ000-INZ000-ILZ000-091405-

Mesoscale Precipitation Discussion 0368
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
405 AM EDT Tue Jun 09 2026

Areas affected...Far Southern IN...Western and Central KY

Concerning...Heavy rainfall...Flash flooding likely

Valid 090805Z - 091405Z

SUMMARY...Concerns for scattered areas of flash flooding are
expected to increase this morning. Locally heavy showers and
thunderstorms with potential for backbuilding and training cells
will drive as much as 2 to 4 inches of additional rainfall with
isolated 5+ inch totals possible.

DISCUSSION...A long-lived MCV continues to advance across areas of
western and central KY early this morning which is facilitating
areas of locally backbuilding and training showers and
thunderstorms. The energy is embedded within a moisture-rich
environment with PWs of 1.8 to 2.2 inches and is being influenced
by an uptick in a 850/925 mb west-southwest low-level jet that is
reaching 30+ kts around the vort's western and southwest flanks.

This low-level jet energy is transporting a narrow axis of
instability characterized by MLCAPE values of 1000 to 1500 J/kg
from the MO Bootheel region. Radar trends shows a fair amount of
backbuilding and cell-training over just the last hour as
favorable upwind propagation vectors become aligned against the
strengthening low-level jet.

There are several pieces of guidance including recent runs of the
RRFS and the earlier 00Z REFS which indicate a substantial threat
for heavy rainfall through early this morning. This is supported
to a lesser degree by the HRRR and 00Z HREF guidance, but even
these solutions have some heavy rainfall to varying degrees over
the next several hours.

Given the very moist environment, kinematics, and current radar
trends, the wetter consensus of hires CAMs generally seems to be
more plausible at this time. This would suggest some areas of
additional rainfall reaching 2 to 4 inches with isolated 5+ inch
totals possible where the better cell-training sets up. Overall,
the heaviest rains should focus over central and western KY, but
some portions of far southern IN may get into some of these rains
as well given proximity of the vort center. These rains are likely
to drive at least scattered areas of flash flooding going through
the morning hours.

Orrison

ATTN...WFO...ILN...IND...LMK...OHX...PAH...

ATTN...RFC...ORN...TIR...NWC...

LAT...LON 38818551 38578468 37998451 37418472 36898530
36558623 36628770 36998816 37438822 37858791
38338690 38718627

Enjoy the break in the weather till at least saturday.. High Pressure is in control...