Kyle Lubsen - Realtor

Why Investors Watch US Cash Home Sales
Cash home sales are something I keep a close eye on here in Shelby and Jefferson Counties, and for good reason. Around a quarter of US existing-home transactions have been cash deals in recent years. For investors—and for anyone watching the pulse of the market—these sales give a faster read on what’s really happening than waiting on mortgage data or new construction reports.

If you notice cash purchases rising right along with home prices, it’s usually a sign that competition is heating up. On the other hand, if cash deals are growing while overall sales are dropping, it often means folks using financing may be getting squeezed out. When cash sales dip but prices stay steady, it might point to easier lending, opening the door for more everyday buyers to return and bringing us closer to a typical, balanced market.

A lot of smaller cash buyers focus on homes that need extra attention—think properties in probate, with tax issues, or in need of some TLC. Even when mortgage-backed sales slow, these homes see steady demand, especially with affordability top of mind for so many families.

From my experience, single-family investing in our area isn’t just about the numbers; it’s about understanding local taxes, title insurance, renovation crews, and how neighborhoods work block by block. That’s why disciplined, local know-how so often wins out over one-size-fits-all approaches.

Looking ahead, I expect to see more focused, local investment strategies rather than sweeping national roll-ups. Even international investors tend to do better by teaming up with folks who know the neighborhood. If you’re curious about how these trends could shape your next move—whether you’re buying, selling, or just exploring what’s possible—I’m always here for a straightforward, real-world perspective.

US Buyers Navigate 14-Month Cost High
The cost of buying a home in the US has reached a 14-month high—by late Q3, the typical buyer’s monthly payment hit $2,600 as mortgage rates kept climbing and sale prices held steady. Nationally, the median home-sale price nudged up about 2% year-over-year to $399,000. That puts extra pressure on affordability, which is something I see my clients wrestling with every day here in Shelby and Jefferson Counties.

Despite the cost, we’re not seeing a big jump in pending sales month-over-month, and compared to last year, they’re actually down. Mortgage purchase applications dipped recently, and while new listings slowed a bit around the holidays, they’re still slightly ahead of last year’s pace. One thing that really stands out: about 21% of active sellers decided to cut their prices. Sharper pricing strategies are catching buyers’ eyes, while overpricing can leave a home lingering on the market—a lesson I always share with both buyers and sellers navigating these conditions.

Inventory is improving too, with active supply up about 2% from a year ago and nearly four months’ worth of homes available nationally. But we’re still not quite at a balanced market. I’ve seen firsthand how these national trends play out locally, and I’m always here to help you make sense of what it means for your next move—whether you’re buying your first home, upsizing, or finding that perfect spot to downsize into.

More Homes Hit the Market as Demand Cools
Seeing more homes come onto the market lately? You’re not imagining things. Over the four weeks ending August 23, new listings in the US edged up 0.4% week-over-week, and the total number of homes for sale grew by 0.5%—the highest inventory we’ve seen since early Q2. At the same time, pending home sales dipped by 1.1% to a six-month low. With mortgage rates hovering near 7% and prices up 1.9% year-over-year (now over $400,000 nationally), many buyers are still holding back, weighing their options.

For those out there actively searching, this combination of rising supply and softer demand means more room to negotiate—whether it’s price cuts or concessions, especially on homes that have been listed for several weeks. Sellers who price realistically are seeing better results than those chasing last year’s highs. I’ve walked clients through these shifting markets before, and I know how important it is to time your move and set expectations. If you’re thinking about your next step—whether it’s finding your first place, upsizing, downsizing, or something a bit special—knowing how to use these conditions to your advantage can make all the difference. I’m always here to help make the process a little clearer and a lot less stressful.

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Fannie Mae predicts home price shift
Fannie Mae's latest forecast gives us a lot to think about: mortgage rates are expected to stay elevated until at least 2027, and home prices could rise about 14.7% by 2030—reaching an average of $576,000. While that sounds like a big jump, the growth is expected to be steady, not sudden, and experts agree a housing crash isn’t on the horizon.

For families in Shelby and Jefferson Counties, this means planning ahead—focusing on what you can afford and being thoughtful with negotiations. Over the years, I’ve seen that every buying journey is unique. Whether you’re looking for your first house, making room for a growing family, or seeking a fresh start, understanding where the market is heading can help you make confident decisions. As someone who’s helped folks at every stage, and has moved and reimagined ‘home’ myself, I believe the key is patience, clarity, and always keeping your family’s needs at the center.

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