Weatherguy757

So let's get into the 2023 hurricane season. We are officially in an El nino atmospheric season. Typically with an El nino season hurricane season is not bad. That is because the weather on the east coast is cooler and wetter. Now with the picture that I have the ocean temperatures are above normal right now. But the problem is that there will be multiple cold fronts coming through that will pick up these hurricanes and have a virtual block on the east coast. My prediction for the 2023 season is that we will have 18 name storms 10 to 12 will be hurricanes with three being major. But do remember it only takes one to affect your area.

Hey everyone. Havnt post much because frankly this winter has been so quiet. This MAY change. Only reason I'm posting this is because models are sniffing out a pattern change. Cold weather for the second half of March. The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) which has major implications on our weather is about to turn favorable for winter storms. Do get winter storms here you want to be in phase 8. Well with the first picture you aee after March sixth (the numbers on the line) we go into phase 8. We actually go deep into phase 8. Why is this happening? It's because la Nina which has stopped the MJO from going into favorable winter phases is done for. A ridge will form in the west and in Canada. Low pressure will push east. The ridge in Canada will pump cold air from Canada down the east coast. March 16th a low as of right now will come up the east coast. Cold air will be in place. AS OF RIGHT NOW this is a perfect setup for major snow from this march 17th system. Totals could easily push over a foot. Now what can go wrong? 1. Low pressure rides a little inland and put us in the warm sector. Rain and wind and major snow for WV, Ohio. The way the MJO is forecasted to be I don't think it's a question if it is in phase 8. The question will be how south will the low form and will it ride off the coast and pull north. If so then late season snow storm. This is my opinion and not a forecast but you will see post about this in the coming week. DT has already hinted this on his video last night. I have not gone to college for this but I have studied and learned from some well knowledged meteorologist. As people know my page I will not hype up anything. If the models pull away from this storm then I'll update and that's it. Only reason I am posting accumulations is because I'm showing the possible potential of what phase 8 in the MJO can do. I am also positive that my good friend Hampton Roads Weather will be looking into this and will update. If we get to five days out and still see this then game on.
Pic 1- shows MJO going into phase 8
Pic 2- shows scenario. Track number one equals massive snow storm. Track number 2 inland snowstorm
Pic 3- accumulations based on current low track and strength.
Also feel free to message or comment on any question s.

Well at least we are not in New Hampshire.

Something to keep in mind for next weekend. Models are showing for a possible snowstorm. Last potential was different as the Gfs showed a massive snowstorm for the east coast And the euro had a Midwest blizzard. Well the euro got it right. The euro usually gets it right for east coast storms. So now we have the Gfs calling for rain and the euro has locked in a snowstorm for our area. I will not post amounts because no one knows. But rule of thumb if euro constantly spits out an east coast storm... You should monitor. Also to note the Gfs operational (all rain) does no match up to it's ensembles. The ensembles look similar to the euro ensembles and operational. Another red flag that the Gfs has no idea. Will keep you posted.

Severe thunderstorm for Southampton county. Will be on the peninsula around 330. If line does hold up expect winds over 50, localized flooding as leafs are clogging drains. Stay safe y'all.

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Alert!!! We may see strong winds Friday evening. Also temps will plummet and we may see a couple snow flakes at the end and then flash freezing. Last pic courtesy of pivotal weather.

Gfs shifts back east...

Quick update about Dec 22-23 storm. The euro, CMC, and now gfs has the storm being an inland storm. For right now I call bull. Here is why. The ensembles are not matching up to the operational. As you can see it has the system being an coastal storm. IF and I mean IF this decides to be a coastal storm we will get hammered. Richmond area could have up to a foot of snow and we can have a pretty good amount in the Hampton roads area. Another thing is this storm will bomb out. Winds can get up to fifty mph with power outages. We will see. Just letting everyone know what models are showing. Some of these photos are credit to Hampton Roads Weather as I will be working with him on thoughts of this storm.

Night update. No matter what happens between now and Christmas one thing is for sure is that it will be cold. First picture shows single digits just west of us with us in the teens. Valid Christmas day. Second pic shows morning air temperatures for Dec 28th. Below zero Franklin west with single digits to teens for 757 and below freezing right at the coast (bay temperature and ocean temp brings temps up for VA beach. Now to the possible snow event. We have a blocking pattern in Canada which is funneling in the cold air. With a +PNA in California which makes lows go south and usually forms a coastal low. First pic is the first low where we get a little snow. The second pic is the bigger low that dumps snow on us. Whether it's 4 to five or 12-14 inches it looks like we will see some type of snow before Christmas. Just how much. This is only a week away. Things can change but models are coming into agreement. And like always we need a lot to fall into place for us to get some major snow. For this event to happen before Christmas (winter is not until the 21st). This shows that this winter may harsh. I will try and update as much as I can but always check my friends page too Hampton Roads Weather for updates.

Air temp valid Christmas day 👀👀👀

Lots to talk about as I've been waiting until a week out to these events. Models are showing not one, not two but possibly three storms from Dec 22nd to Dec 27th with the Dec 22nd -23rd absolutely burying our region with snow. Models will flip etc but one thing for certain is it will be cold. Picture I am sharing is the Gfs model valid up to Christmas. I will update as much as I can.