Meteorologist Mason Gleva

Severe thunderstorm warning for portions of St. Joseph and Marshall counties until 10:30 pm EDT for 70mph winds and 2” hail as the supercell moves off to the NE at 30mph. If it holds together Mishawaka, Elkhart, Goshen and Wakarusa you would be next in line over the next hour or so. The storm seems to be on a weakening trend but it has a history of very large hail and tornadoes. Still keeping an eye on this guy given its history…

This was the look out my back door just now! Rain has started here in Goshen.

VERY dangerous situation right now across northern portions of Newton and Jasper counties. A large and extremely dangerous tornado is on the ground near Roselawn moving ENE at 25 mph...Roselawn, DeMotte and Wheatfield be in your safe place now!

Areas to the north of the tornado are getting pelted with baseball sized hail. This storm will move into Southern LaPorte/Starke/Northern Pulaski county regions after 9 pm this evening.

Very large hail with the storms out in Illinois. Easily 1” if not close to 2” in the elevated storm rolling through Chicago currently. The supercell impacting Kankakee, IL is currently warned for 4” hail 😳

Now would be a good time to move your car into the garage or under a carport. This hail will dent if not brake the glass on your windshield.

Threat gets into NW Indiana here in the next hour, Michiana near/after 9pm.

📸: Patrick Dwyer
📍 Downers Grove, IL

SEVERE WEATHER THIS EVENING

The severe weather threat was upgraded to a level 4 out of 5 risk for areas along US-30 and west of US-31 (like Valpo, Merrillville, DeMotte, Joliet). Everyone else sits under a level 3 risk still.

I cannot stress this enough, stay weather aware this evening! Especially from 5 pm through 2 am tonight. Best chance for storms arrives after 9pm east of US-31, 4-9 pm west of there. Not everyone will see the first round of storms.

Very large hail, tornadoes (some could be strong) remain the main threats. With the tornado threat being greatest along and south of the warm front/lake breeze boundary. Followed by damage winds in the line of storms after midnight. Make sure you have a way to receive warnings this evening, all of the local South Bend stations have their weather app or I know Matt Rudkin also has a great one too.

I would also charge any electronics and power banks now just in case you lose power later. Make sure you are where you are going to be for the evening by 5 pm, you aren’t going to want to mess with these storms once they get going later today!

STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS LIKELY TOMORROW EVENING (3/10/26)

2pm ET Update: Not much has changed in the thinking for tomorrow. Strong to severe storms are likely between 6 pm Tuesday through 3 am Wednesday, with the all hazards threat still on the table especially before midnight.

It is also severe weather preparedness week here in Indiana, the statewide tornado drill is at 10:15 am ET/9:15 am CT. There is no severe threat tomorrow morning, so no need to panic! If the sirens sound later in the day then take that one seriously. Make sure to have multiple ways to receive warnings tomorrow evening into early Wednesday.

With the 1:30 pm update, the Storm Prediction center expanded the level 3 risk, as seen in the orange in the first image, all the way to IN-15 to include Goshen south to Warsaw and points west. One thing that separates this threat from other typical severe weather threats in the spring is the lack of storms in the morning which lessens the threat later. Any storm that fires along the boundary that will lift north to about the Toll Road through the day tomorrow, will have the potential to rotate and potentially put down a strong tornado (especially in the black hatched area in the third image). There will also be a lake-breeze which adds another wrench into the forecast. Valpo could be stuck in the 40s while DeMotte is sitting in the upper 60s (in the last image), that is another boundary for the storms to fire along there. North of the boundary you are cool and stable, south of there it's game on.

Storms could fire as early as 5-7 pm along that boundary that I just talked about and move off to the north and east along it. The threat with any of those storms which, may only end up being one or two very intense storms, would be capable of primarily very large hail (possibly greater than 2" in the red & black hatched areas in the second image) and a couple of tornadoes. Then along the cold front later that night a line of loud storms with some gusty winds, very heavy rain and maybe another spin-up or two is possible. If we don't see any of the isolated storms earlier in the evening, the later round would be stronger and have more energy to work with.

Wednesday will start off rather stormy and wet but temperatures will fall behind that front and the rain could very well change over to snow later in the day Wednesday. Not expecting any of it to stick but just enough to remind us that it's still early March.

I'll have another update tomorrow morning!

STRONG STORMS TUESDAY

Another chance for strong to severe storms Tuesday afternoon & evening. This one has the potential to be worse than the storms on Friday, and is not great news for the recovery & cleanup efforts in Cass, Branch & Calhoun counties in Michigan from the tornadoes that afternoon.

The main timeframe of concern would be from 5 pm Tuesday through 2 am Wednesday. Similar to Tuesday we will have a warm front separating the warm, moist air to its south in the warm sector from the cool, stable air to the north of it. South of the warm front mid to upper 70s for highs, north of there you will be hanging around 50° with probably some fog. Current thinking is the warm front will setup somewhere between the toll road & I-94. Any storm that can attach itself to the warm front will need to be watch closely for a tornado threat with it. The exact placement of the warm front is still subject to change here over the next 24-36 hours. So check back for updates!

Storms will fire around 4-6pm across North-Central Illinois and roll off to the north and east with time eventually merging into a line. Just how quickly it does is still the question. All hazards are possible Tuesday afternoon & evening (damaging winds, hail and a couple of tornadoes).

In the two images below you can see the threat level (on a scale of 1 to 5), most of us are under a level 2 out of 5 risk with the highest risk just to our west in Illinois (level 3 in orange). The second image shows the probability of severe weather with us in the 15% of severe weather occurring within a 25 mile radius of a give point (15% of severe weather occuring within 25 miles of your house) with the potential for significant severe weather within that black circled area.

Make sure to stay weather aware Tuesday! I’ll have another update this evening as our shorter range models continue to get a better grasp on things.

Unofficially we broke the record high today in Valpo of 60°! Currently 62° at VU! Another day or two in the 60s again Wed & Thu!!!

One more day of cold and then the heat is on! It's a race to melt the snow so we can see *checks notes* 60 DEGREES NEXT WEDNESDAY?!

If we get rid of the snowpack faster, highs might need to be bumped up a degree or two down the line. Next week looks warm! Some showers are possible Wednesday as a system looks to roll through the regions. After that temperatures will dip back down that weekend (30s & 40s) but we'll take it after all of the snow & cold!

Already between 7-8” here at VU! The heaviest of the snow will continue to ramp up in the coming hours. Snow ends by early afternoon tomorrow. Definitely overachieving our forecast so far! ☃️