Matt Leach - 21Alive Weather

**THIS WARNING HAS EXPIRED **

9:04 PM RADAR UPDATE | A TORNADO WARNING has been issued for southeastern Steuben County and northeastern DeKalb county until 9:45 pm.

It is believed that an emergency manager reported a tornado that was more likely a funnel cloud. NWS has NOT received any damage or confirming tornado reports.

Please relay any confirming reports/pictures when safe to do so if you have them!

**THIS WARNING HAS EXPIRED**

6:04 PM RADAR UPDATE (Tues, 6/16) | There is a TORNADO WARNING knocking on the door of southern Wabash county, including Wabash and La Fontaine. This storm is moving just south of Peru at 30 mph.

Only a wall cloud has been spotted, but this is a precursor to a potential touchdown. Will go live on social/on air if the warning expands.

SEVERE UPDATE FOR WEDNESDAY, 6/17 (Posted Tuesday, 6/16) | Looking at latest guidance, I believe the greatest outbreak/tornado potential will exist across N/Central Illinois and NW/NC Indiana Wednesday evening with impactful, but weakening storms with eastward extent.

Though it won't resolve every severe concern, pattern recognition tells me the afternoon (after 2p) batch of rain/thunder BEFORE the cold front slides through (after 7p) will work to stabilize our environment to a degree.

This means, as modeled, by the time the cold front arrives, instability and heating should be meager, but wind shear/spin could be extraordinary - we'll be watching every single cell like a hawk through the evening much like last week.

Let's talk tornadoes, wind/rain, and timing below.

1) TORNADOES: The highest risk for tornadoes, particularly large ones (EF3+), will be to our west in the pink shaded area along the warm front. The supercell/tornado signatures decrease rather significantly with eastward extent. Not vanish, per se, but are essentially cut in half.

If I had to flag areas in Northeast Indiana that would be at highest risk of a tornado touchdown, it would be Grant, Wabash, Kosciusko, LaGrange, with secondary areas of concern being Noble/Whitley counties.

2) WIND & RAIN: I think this will be the more widespread risk. Gusts in excess of 60 mph could be quite common, with 70 mph+ reports possible. Our proximity to the warm front and the amount of moisture at our disposal also raises a flooding concern - some areas could see 2"+ in a roughly six-hour window. It's been quite dry lately, so the ground can absorb much of that. Just be aware isolated 3"+ amounts could result in brief flooding.

3) TIMING: The window we will be watching most closely is from 7-10p when the actual cold front makes its journey through Northern Indiana and Northwest Ohio.

FINAL THOUGHTS: I am a natural skeptic when it comes to big severe risks/outbreaks across our area. Not because of willful ignorance, of course, but because of experience. I've seen enough monster snowstorms/severe outbreaks on paper crumble into a minor inconvenience when it gets down to showtime.

But skepticism won't influence my commitment to tell you, in black-and-white terms, what the *possibilities* are given the right circumstances.

It's best to go into something like this with a level head: logically understanding the stakes while acknowledging there could be a wide range of outcomes depending on elements outside of our control.

We'll get through this like we do every impactful weather event! :) See you on 21Alive this evening!

SCATTERED STORMS THIS EVENING (Tues, 6/16) | While there is a severe weather risk tomorrow to address, for now I did want to put this evening's cold front on your radar!

Between approximately 5-8p a line of thunderstorms is expected to sweep through, and in spite of low instability/moisture content there could be enough spin for a brief tornado.

There isn't really ONE place where that is more likely - the entire region is under a small, but non-zero risk of weak/brief tornado formation and/or strong wind gusts before the front makes it through.

Wednesday is the more interesting set up, and I am going to wait a little bit to discuss it (the next NOAA NWS Storm Prediction Center center update is going to be around 1:30p ET).

Essentially, the *potential* is there for a highly impactful severe weather event, especially across NW Indiana. However, there could also be a lot to overcome atmospherically for the worst of this system to impact us verbatim given the potential for a round of midday rain/cloud cover that will limit both heating and instability.

More on that soon!

Though uncertainty remains, and the threat is highly conditional, we are monitoring Wednesday, June 17th as a potentially busy weather day, especially from about 2/3p through 11p or so. Therefore, we have issued a First Alert Weather Day.

A nearby warm front could provide fuel for intense thunderstorm activity across a large chunk of the Midwest, including Northern Indiana and Ohio. However, the positioning of this front, and extent of any earlier storm activity, will make a big difference between a sizeable severe threat and typical June storms.

I think all severe weather risks are possible given the right circumstances: heavy rain/flooding, high wind (60 mph+), large hail, and isolated tornadoes.

For those with storm anxiety: Severe weather outbreaks are so rare locally that you can usually bet against the worst-case scenario and be right. So many things have to come together in just the right way. Nevertheless, preparation and warning put you in a stronger position should storms become stronger than expected!

More on this tonight on 21Alive!

A total of SIX tornadoes (five EF-1s, one EF-0) touched down across Northeast Indiana last Thursday, June 11th.

The tornado risk was low - 2-5% area wide - but a good reminder that low doesn't not mean impossible.

Noah Gordon - WX had a good write up today about this:

"Another reminder that while we often associate squall lines with mainly damaging winds, these systems can also be prolific tornado producers. Four separate tornadoes occurred across the span of just over 20 minutes from near Wabash to Huntington.
Meanwhile, a longer lived EF1 stayed on the ground for nearly 15 minutes and 15 miles from near Milford to Angola...even 'weak' tornadoes such as these can still contain winds of 90-110mph."

We are tracking another storm system midweek that could also pose a localized tornado threat. More on that this afternoon!

EF-1 tornado confirmed in Wabash Thursday night, max wind speeds of 110 mph.

NWS storm survey linked below ⬇️

COOLER AIR INCOMING | It was a hot and humid week, but much cooler and drier air is going to make a comeback this weekend into next week.

Highs will still reach the mid 80s Saturday, but with lower humidity it will feel cooler than mid 80s did yesterday, for instance.

Then there's Sunday - highs in the mid 70s, blustery, occasional showers.

All of next week it also looks like we'll stay on the cooler side, predominately in the 70s versus 80s!

What this also likely means locally is lower severe chances for at least the next week.