Brooks Garner

FLORIDA MAY BE ABOUT TO REMEMBER IT’S FLORIDA. 🌴🌧️

After a long dry stretch, the season’s first real push of deep tropical moisture is showing up on the maps.

No, this is not a hurricane hype post.

No, I’m not buying the GFS trying to spin up some dramatic early June system near Cuba and send it toward Florida. That model loves to get weird this time of year.

But the broader pattern? That part is real.

Over the next 2 weeks, deep tropical moisture should pool over the western Caribbean and Gulf, then get pulled north toward Florida.

Translation: the atmosphere is about to get a lot more tropical.

Some spots could pick up several inches of rain by June 5th. A widespread 6 inches is possible in the wetter setup.

For perspective, that would be about 6 times what we average in January.

It’s a start.

Expect more humidity, more clouds, and a growing chance for heavy afternoon storms as we head toward late next week and the first week of June.

Honestly, Florida needs this.

The dream setup would be a big, sloppy, disorganized tropical low nearby that lollygags around and drops buckets of rain without flooding anyone.

That’s a very Florida thing to ask for. 😂

Here we go. 🌧️

JUST IN: NOAA is predicting a below-normal 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Their numbers are inline with what Colorado State University forecasted last month.

55% chance of a quieter year thanks to El Niño, but they warn: it only takes one storm to cause major damage.

Prep now, stay informed, and watch out for misinformation on the socials. Season: June 1 – Nov 30. 🌊

Do these outlooks help you determine risk for the season?

🌧️ Drought Update – Weekly Check-In

Despite the recent rains and greener landscapes, drought conditions continue across Florida. Tiny improvement have been observed in Central Florida especially.

Remember: A few heavy showers and wet grass don’t end a drought. Drought is officially declared based on long-term rainfall deficits. Even with the recent relief, we’re still seeing:

🌵Lower lake, well, and aquifer levels
🌵Increased fire danger
🌵Greater risk of sinkholes
🌵Added stress on agriculture

The good news? Our rainy season has started early this year and that’s a very positive sign! 🌴☔

It may take several more months for full recovery, but I’m optimistic it'll happen this year. With El Niño developing, we’re looking at a much wetter fall and winter ahead.

Wild view of the dawn breaking over Ormond Beach, with a Falcon 9 rocket placing Starlink satellites onto orbit, shortly after 6am, May 21st. You've got to love Florida for unique scene like this!
[Photographier: Dillon Kalkhurst]

SO NEAT! 🚀
Did you see the wild launch today from a Falcon 9 at sunrise? Joel Mathis captured this view from Clermont.

🌧️ Orlando, our storm chances are RAMPING UP this week.

On this Wednesday, May 20th, we’re seeing a sneaky but important shift in the winds. That classic sea breeze is finally pushing those afternoon storms closer to Orlando instead of keeping them stuck over the Gulf Coast like the past few days.

Best chance for strong storms? Friday afternoon.
☀️➡️🌩️

Our rainy season usually doesn’t usually kick off until around May 24th… but it jumped the gun this year and started a week early. 💦

Is your yard still parched, or have you caught a few of the spotty, brief downpours over the last few days?

☀️ Boston, you stubborn, slingshot weather city. 😤

You love holding onto those 50-degree highs straight through early May like you’re personally offended by summer.

Then ... SNAP!

The hot air that’s been building out west finally breaks through like a popped balloon. West winds kick in, a cold front barrels down, and you rocket from chilly to scorching in 24 hours.

That’s classic Boston for you. Thanks to the Labrador Current hugging their coast, it can be 96° in the city while it’s still only 59° on Hampton Beach.

Tuesday, 6 PM update: It’s the classic Florida split screen tonight.

Some neighborhoods are getting hammered with flooding downpours and nonstop lightning. Others? Dry pavement and sunshine.

Storms are erupting along the Gulf Coast sea breeze near Tampa Bay after a spotty day around Orlando.

Has your lawn finally had a decent drink today? 🌦️

Pouring on one side of the street. Other side? Bone dry.

Summer shower season has officially arrived. ☔️🌴

🔥 DC hotter than Florida today.

Orlando 89°... DC flips the script (and number) at 98°.

Who takes the win?

Love the skies this time of year in Florida. 🌴