BuffaloWeather

Foliage update from Wright mountain in the Adirondacks from Dustin Long this weekend! Leaves are quickly changing! 🍁

Foliage update! Fall colors are quickly spreading across the state. Expect peak colors across the Adirondacks this week! I’ll be heading there on Thursday! 🍁

The GFS has Buffalo getting into the 30s next week with the souther tier receiving their first freeze. Growing season is quickly closing!

The below picture is the snowfall disparity from average in the top 10 strongest El Nino events. Strong El ninos lead to fewer arctic outbreaks across the great lakes, thus leading to less lake effect snowfall.

📉 Historical signal: The strongest El Niño winters have generally produced below-normal snowfall across the Great Lakes, including Buffalo.

🌡️ Warmer pattern: El Niño often favors milder temperatures across the Great Lakes, increasing the chances of rain or wet snow instead of accumulating snow.

🌊 Lake effect still possible: Lake-effect snow doesn't disappear, but fewer prolonged Arctic outbreaks can mean fewer opportunities for major events.

🔥 Strong El Niño: This year's El Niño is expected to be very strong, increasing the potential for the typical El Niño winter pattern to have a greater influence.

❄️ Buffalo takeaway: The setup favors a higher risk of below-normal seasonal snowfall, but it's not a guarantee. A few major Lake Erie snowstorms could still dramatically boost Buffalo's seasonal total.

Bottom line: 🌡️ Warmer temperatures + fewer Arctic outbreaks + a less favorable storm track = increased risk of a lower-snowfall winter for Buffalo.

According to the CPC cooler temps are coming during the 2nd week of October. If this is true we can expect our first frost and even freezes likely across much of our area!

Another beautiful week on tap! Best chance of rain will be Thursday night into Friday. Warmest day will be Thursday with high temps near 80! Weather for the Bills game on Sunday once again looks perfect. Hope everyone has a great week!

Insane sunset tonight! Let’s see those pics!

Saw this guy on my morning run along the waterfront today! A perfect fall morning!