SummitValue Analytics

April 29
The three major U.S. stock indices traded in a mixed and volatile session. The Dow Jones Industrial Average closed down 0.57% at 48,861.81; the S&P 500 edged down 0.04% to 7,135.95; and the Nasdaq Composite edged up 0.04% to 24,673.24. The overall market traded in a volatile manner, influenced by policy disagreements within the Federal Reserve, significant fluctuations in oil prices, and earnings season.
The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged, but policy disagreements intensified, dampening expectations for rate cuts and weighing on blue-chip stocks. Sector performance was clearly mixed: most large-cap tech stocks saw minor pullbacks, while Intel surged over 12% on the back of strong earnings and its AI business. Geopolitical tensions drove oil prices sharply higher, propelling the energy sector to strong gains, while Chinese ADRs saw a slight overall pullback.
In the short term, U.S. stocks are expected to continue their volatile and divergent trend, with high oil prices, inflation concerns, and policy uncertainty continuing to limit the market’s upside potential. In terms of trading strategy, we recommend strictly controlling positions and adopting a defensive stance, focusing on high-quality stocks with strong earnings certainty, such as AI chips and computing power, while avoiding overvalued stocks trading at high levels. Continue to monitor non-farm payroll data, earnings reports from major companies, and geopolitical developments, and wait for the market direction to become clearer before positioning accordingly

April 28
U.S. stocks closed lower across the board. Driven by cooling expectations for AI and risk-averse sentiment ahead of the earnings season, market sectors showed significant divergence, with tech stocks leading the decline and defensive sectors holding up better. At the close, the Dow Jones Industrial Average edged down 0.05%, the S&P 500 fell 0.49%, and the Nasdaq Composite bore the brunt of the pressure, closing down 0.90%.
U.S. stocks are currently in a critical window for earnings reports and monetary policy. With tech giants such as Microsoft, Google, and Amazon set to release earnings reports in quick succession, investors are taking profits ahead of time, exacerbating market volatility. Meanwhile, persistent inflation and high oil prices are delaying expectations for Fed rate cuts, while high interest rates continue to weigh on growth stock valuations, keeping the broader market in a state of volatility with a bearish bias.
In the near term, the U.S. stock market will remain highly volatile, with tech earnings reports taking center stage. Whether tech giants deliver on their AI earnings promises will directly determine the pace of a rebound or correction in tech stocks. In the medium term, the market is entering a phase of AI earnings validation, with sector divergence intensifying; only companies with concrete earnings results will sustain a rally. This recent decline represents a rational correction of the AI hype rather than a shift to a bearish trend. Until the pace of interest rate cuts is determined, the U.S. stock market will primarily exhibit a volatile, sector-specific trading pattern.

Performance of the Three Major Indices (Closing)
S&P 500: +1.17%, closing at 6,966.78 (approaching an all-time high)
Nasdaq: Up approximately 1.9%, closing at 23,639 (extending its winning streak to the longest in recent years)
Dow Jones: Up 0.66%, closing at 48,535
Russell 2000: Up 1.3%

👉 One-line summary: Tonight marked a rally driven by a “full-scale return of risk appetite,” led by tech stocks, with indices nearing all-time highs