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More volatility in rate markets, particularly in MBSs. Yesterday’s FOMC meeting and Powell’s press conference turned the 10 yr. from 1.67% back to 1.64% at the end of the session. MBS prices yesterday morning -30 bps, after Powell prices rebounded to +9 bps at the end of the day. Once again, the movement in rates happened late yesterday, at 8:30 pm ET, when rates began to increase, and the climb continued to 7:30 am this morning. The 10 yr. at 1.75%, up a whopping 11 bps and MBS prices at 8:00 am -42 bps from yesterday’s close. We noted a few days ago how most of the movement in US treasuries has been occurring after US markets close; it continued last night.

Inflation is the driver; yesterday, Powell made it clear the Fed wants inflation to increases above 2.0%, and even higher, the Fed will tolerate higher inflation for now on the premise it will aid economic growth. How is that? Simple, the more prices increase, the faster spending will occur. The moves came after Fed Chair Jerome Powell indicated he wasn’t concerned over the recent surge in long-term yields -- with his focus still on whether financial conditions remained accommodative. Futures volumes surged after the benchmark 10-year yield broke past 1.7%, giving way to another bout of selling. Treasuries were already facing modest pressure in Asian hours before flows accelerated at the start of the London session.

Not all the market believes that inflation will continue to increase, but that is what makes a market. Currently, that view is very much in the minority given the recent data on PPI, supply pressures getting goods to the shelves, and rising commodity prices. With the Fed ‘promising’ not to increase rates until 2023, it’s a green light despite a significantly brighter assessment of growth and higher inflation over the near term. No rate increases, but the Fed essentially admitted inflation is on the increase; check your gasoline prices as one area where prices are increasing. Try home prices, look at credit card rates, food prices.

tocks opened lower this morning after generally unchanged yesterday. Investors are pausing to get more specifics from the Biden administration. Equity markets will love the increased spending, but how much love is where markets are today.

Biden wants a $1.9 trillion stimulus package to shorten the economic decline. Most world leaders are taking a more conservative outlook. Hopes that activity can return to normal in the hardest-hit economies are becoming increasingly distant despite the progress being made on vaccinations. U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson signaled that the country's current lockdown could last until the summer while officials there have suggested paying people who test positive for the virus to stay at home. German Chancellor Angela Merkel said it would be late September before everyone who wants to get vaccinated can get a shot. Anger is rising across Europe as the supply of Pfizer vaccines slows. In the U.S., President Biden will sign executive actions today that will boost food assistance for impoverished Americans.

The damage being done to economic activity was laid clear in this morning's Purchasing Managers Index numbers from Europe, which clearly signaled a double-dip recession in the euro area. IHS Markit's gauge of private-sector activity fell to 47.5, with the service sector continuing to lag, while manufacturing in Germany remained strong. Output in the U.K. fell at the quickest pace since May, with Brexit delays adding to the pandemic-driven slowdown. The ECB's survey of professional forecasters expects 2021 growth of 4.4%, down from the previous forecast for growth of 5.7%.

Nov housing starts and permits; starts expected at 1.530 mil increased to 1.547%; building permits sky-rocked to 1.639 mil on estimates of 1.553 mil, up 6.2% from October. Residential starts rose 1.2%; strong demand for new homes thanks to record-low mortgage rates and buyers looking for bigger spaces during the pandemic. Housing starts are back to levels set last February. Single-family starts rose for a seventh month to a 1.186 million annualized rate that was the highest since 2007, while starts for projects with five or more units, a category that tends to be volatile and includes apartments and condos, increased to 352,000. Permits rose to the best level since 2006.

The expected stimulus package is still progressing, but slowly. Talk this morning is it may drag on through the weekend. The proposal draft includes $600 in payments for individuals, $300-per-week in supplemental unemployment insurance payments and aid for small businesses, and roughly $17 billion for airlines. But it omits aid to state and local governments and lawsuit liability protection, the two issues that have stymied earlier attempts at an agreement. A stimulus package will be attached to a $1.4 trillion spending bill to fund the government through its fiscal year ( October 2021). Some 7.8 million Americans have fallen into poverty since June as benefits from the prior virus relief package lapsed, according to an analysis of ongoing Census data by economists at the University of Chicago and the University of Notre Dame. The poverty rate has increased by 2.4%, double the

This holiday season, I’d like to take the opportunity to reflect on a uniquely trying year. Our team and our families, like yours, faced new and untold challenges that continue to impact our professional and personal relationships. But during these times, we’ve built stronger bonds with our friends, families and loved ones. This holiday season more than ever, we celebrate what’s important and look toward brighter fortunes the new year will bring.

From our Hippo Financial family to yours, thank you for being a key part of our success in 2020. Have a happy holiday and healthy 2021.

Wishing you all the best;
Tom Malace

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Giving thanks to our staff, wholesale partners and account executives, and of course our CUSTOMERS that have made 2020 a blessed year.

Home prices continue to spike higher

Traditionally, the real estate market begins to take a breather over the holidays. But 2020 is a year that nothing is traditional. Housing Wire’sJulia Falcon reports that low mortgage rates paired with record-low housing inventory have driven home price through the roof, with the National Association of Realtors saying that the median single-family home price grew year over year in all 181 metro areas it tracks.

“In the U.S., median existing single-family home prices rose 12% year over year to $313,500,” NAR said. “In 117 metros, there were double-digit price gains from one year ago. For added perspective, in Q2, only 15 metro areas had double-digit price gains.”

When asked how to remedy this craziness, NAR Chief Economist Lawrence Yun responded by saying that the answer is finding a solution to the housing inventory crisis. Falcon says that by the end of Q3, 1.47 million existing homes were available for sale, which is 19.2% lower than the total inventory at the end of Q3 last year. As of September 2020, there were enough homes in inventory to last 2.7 months at the current sales pace.

“As home prices increase both too quickly and too significantly, first-time buyers will increasingly face difficulty in coming up with a down payment,” Yun said. “Transforming raw land into developable lots and new supply are clearly needed to help tame the home price growth.”

“Favorable mortgage rates will continue to bring fresh buyers to the market,” said Yun. “However, the affordability situation will not improve even with low-interest rates because housing prices are increasing much too fast.”

Stock indexes traded higher in pre-opening trading this morning, the MBS price a little better at 8:30 am ET with the 10 yr. note unchanged after the nice decline yesterday. Yesterday the 10 yr. dropped 10 bps, and MBS prices ended +38 bps.

At 8:30 am ET October PPI; +0.3% on thoughts of 0.2%, yr./yr. PPI +0.5% higher than 0.4% expected. The Core PPI at 0.1% was lower than 0.2% estimates, yr./yr. +1.1% also better than 1.2% forecasts. The report is about what economists were thinking. There was no initial reaction to the report.

The virus is increasing at rates much higher than back in March and April. The outlook, according to experts, is for rising infections. Wide state shutdowns are increasing, and the Biden team is beginning to lean toward a possible nationwide closure again. Biden is on record many times, he would listen to the scientists, and if a shutdown was recommended, then he would do it. At this point, although the spread is growing and in some areas hospitals are over-crowded, there is no momentum to close down. The good news is now we have therapeutics, and the death toll for people under 50 is only 0.5% of those infected. It is serious, but a national shutdown now will crush the economic outlook. Wednesday Jerome Powell and the ECB continued to warn the outlook is becoming cloudy as the virus expands. Trump has two months left to make the decisions. Markets are equally confident that there won’t be a shutdown, the equity markets climbing and interest rates steady. Presently, although the spread continues to increase, no countrywide closures are likely. Closing down the economy again as the economy is continuing to improve would drive the economy back into recession and would likely last longer than the first one in March/April. The most serious impact now is many states are closing down in-person schools, which isn’t good for children and parents that have to work.