Independent Fuel Pricing Analyst

OPIS News Story | Gasoline Margins September 21, 2022 Summer officially ends on Thursday September 22, and it may well conclude with a 100th consecutive day of lower national gasoline prices.

Great news on gasoline prices! We are seeing the wholesale gasoline rack prices go down today. But remember the old saying about the way they will go down drifting like a feather.

EIA expects high refinery margins to contribute to increasing fuel production this summer Energy Information Administration - EIA - Official Energy Statistics from the U.S. Government

Gas prices surge again to record high but the driver is refineries, not oil prices High oil prices are usually blamed for record gas prices, but there's also a refinery shortage. More oil's meaningless if we can't convert it to gas.

Sorry, But for You, Oil Trades at $250 a Barrel The culprit is the refinery margin and the consequences are huge for global inflation.

3/14/22 - West Texas Crude (WTI) crude fell below $100 a barrel for the
first time since March 1 as negotiations between Ukraine and
Russia appeared to grow more substantive and China imposed a
lockdown on an entire province to stem the spread of Covid.
Futures in New York have traded in a range of $95.32 to
$130.50 this month as Russia’s invasion of Ukraine prompted most
of the oil industry to shun its oil, sparking an extraordinary
wave of volatility.

On 3-10-22 the that’s what I thoughtfront-month RBOB gasoline contract shed 13.71cts to finish at $3.1567/gal, more than 52cts lower than two days ago and well off the session high of $3.4269/gal.

The April contract for West Texas Intermediate crude oil, which had climbed as high as $114.88/bbl, settled at $106.02/bbl, a loss of $2.68. The May Brent crude contract was $1.80 in the red at NYMEX settlement, to $109.34/bbl.

WTI crude oil went down $15 a barrel today (3/9/22). What goes up must come down. LA CARBOB gasoline price and WTI crude oil price took a big dive around noon.

Los Angeles CARBOB for March delivery saw prices decline a hefty 24.41cts/gal alongside heavy paper selling, withdrawing to $3.8385/gal around 12:30 p.m. ET.

Cash differentials were pegged 40cts over NYMEX April RBOB futures. That's the level traded and assessed Tuesday as no bids or offers were yet seen to move values.

L.A. CARBOB prices remain at the highest levels in years despite today's steep declines and are still 40cts/gal above week ago levels.

Crude oil - 2022 Data - 1983-2021 Historical - 2023 Forecast - Price - Quote - Chart WTI crude futures fell to below $122 per barrel in volatile trade on Wednesday after rising more than 2% earlier in the session as investors try to assess the impact of recent sanctions in the oil market. US oil prices have gained more than 30% since Russia invaded Ukraine and hit their highest sinc...

Regular gasoline prices, by week and PADD
(Self service cash price in dollars per gallon, including taxes)
Date 02/21/22 02/28/22 03/07/22
U.S. 3.530 3.608 4.102
PADD 1 - East Coast 3.503 3.563 4.098
PADD 1a - New England 3.539 3.597 4.187
PADD 1b - Central Atlantic 3.667 3.712 4.250
PADD 1c - Lower Atlantic 3.391 3.462 3.982
PADD 2 - Midwest 3.352 3.466 3.916
PADD 3 - Gulf Coast 3.237 3.307 3.820
PADD 4 - Rocky Mountain 3.344 3.372 3.825
PADD 5 - West Coast 4.233 4.311 4.777
PADD 5b - West Coast less CA 3.848 3.902 4.325
California 4.570 4.671 5.18

National price for regular unleaded gasoline is expected to hit $5 per gallon with the price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil expected to increase from $125 today to $175 a barrel by Memorial Day.

U.S. Gas Prices Are Skyrocketing—How Much Worse Will It Get? Gas prices hit a $4-per-gallon average for the first time since 2008, and some estimates say it will reach $4.25 by Memorial Day. But in some places, it's already much higher.

02-03-22
Gas Pump Prices in LA-Long Beach Area Revisit Record Highs: AAA

Self-serve gasoline prices in the Los Angeles-Long Beach region this week hit the region's all-time record of $4.72/gal, previously set on Nov. 27, according to the Auto Club's Weekend Gas Watch.

The California average for a gallon of unleaded regular is $4.66/gal, compared to the national average of $3.41/gal.

Orange County broke its all-time highest price record this past week after its average rose to $4.70/gal.

Drivers in San Diego are paying $4.66/gal, 4cts/gal higher than week-ago levels and 3cts/gal above prices this time last month.

Central Coast prices averaged $4.64/gal, 6cts/gal below the all-time record in that region.

"Refineries began shipping out the more expensive 'summer blend' of gasoline to Southern California gas pipelines on Monday, while oil prices have climbed by more than 10 dollars a barrel in the past month due to world tensions and OPEC
concerns," said Auto Club spokesman Doug Shupe. "If the upward pressure for gas prices continues, we could see new record prices in all Southern California areas in the next couple of weeks."

OPIS began assessing February any-timing spot market L.A. CARBOB 5.99-lb. RVP this week. Implied prices Thursday afternoon are around 25cts/gal above week-ago levels due to the shift to summer-grade RVP specifications.

San Francisco CARBOB is expected to make the seasonal switch to summer blend gasoline this month.

Oil Rally Pushes U.S. Gasoline Prices Up For Fifth Week In A Row | OilPrice.com The average gasoline price in the United States rose for a fifth consecutive week as oil prices rallied and WTI Crude hit $88 per barrel