Victory Power Solutions

Natural gas futures jump as global energy tensions push prices higher U.S. natural gas futures jumped about 7% this week, following rising global energy prices tied to geopolitical tensions and disruptions to LNG supply abroad. While U.S. export facilities are already operating near capacity, the global price spike is still influencing domestic markets. Because natural gas often sets the marginal price for electricity in deregulated wholesale markets, sustained increases could translate into higher wholesale power prices in regions such as ERCOT, PJM, and ISO-NE. Bloomberg

Latest information about the cold weather coming our way:

Victory also helps people protect their electricity rates from going up at their homes. Follow this link:

https://enroll.atlantexpower.com/Enrollment/Default.aspx?promoCode=VICTORY

Natural Gas future prices on NYMEX took a large jump today. Over $1.20 / MMbtu. This causes an exponential jump in electricity prices as heat rates for generation have increased due to reduced reserve margin turning negative in 2027. If you haven't locked down a good, fixed rate through 2030, please contact us here or at: [email protected].

https://www.wsj.com/articles/european-gas-rises-with-inventories-below-last-years-levels-3b99d8bf?mod=commodities-futures_news_article_pos3

Victory partners with Ammper Power to address the unique energy requirements of Cryto Mining companies.

Victory Power is always looking for creative ways to solve complex business problems for our clients. Victory Partners with Best in Class Solution providers like Ammper Power! | John Varnell Victory Power is always looking for creative ways to solve complex business problems for our clients. Victory Partners with Best in Class Solution providers like Ammper Power!

From NRG regarding the 4CP Peak in ERCOT and PEAK DEMAND FORCAST:

Friday, Aug 08, 2025
Forecast Load: 85,054 MW

There is a high likelihood peak is today. The highest observed peak this month: 82,446 MW 15 minute period ending: Thu, Aug 07, 2025 5:00 PM.

This means if you can reduce your peak demand on your commercial meter today, it may have a direct impact on the cost of TDSP charges you have next year.

ERCOT MARKET NOTICE

Per NRG, ERCOT has issued an Advisory for extreme cold weather starting Sunday (1/19) through Thursday (1/23). Updated weather forecasts for next week currently show colder lows and slightly warmer highs, with the potential for precipitation/wintry mix. Late next week, temperatures are anticipated to return to normal. Peak prices for Next Week remain elevated and volatile as the weather forecasts change. The peak load forecast for Tuesday morning (1/21) remains the highest for the week. Moderate renewable performance is forecasted during this time, leading to reasonable net load levels.

There was some unexpected volatility yesterday as wind output underperformed amidst a slight increase to thermal outages during the morning hours. As a result, prices in the North and West zones reached over $2000/MWh around 8am.

We will continue to monitor and communicate any market or reliability risks as the forecasts develop over the next several days. Please don’t hesitate to reach out with questions.

Victory is actively working with a great number of existing Texas clients to examine their current hedges and manage risk through FY 2027 when we might expect some price relief as new generation capacity comes online through the PCM efforts designed to effectively control varying Reserve Margin levels. Please email or DM us if you would like to schedule some time to discuss.

From Constellation's weekly Energy Market Update, Victory notes that the basic fundementals of Natural Gas prices and storage levels, Cruid Oil Prices and production levels, Economy, and Weather are all showing Neutral to slightly bearish short-term trends.

Nationally, Natural Gas inventories are 165 Bcf greater than the five-year average and 67 Bcf greater than the same time last year. Crude remains range bound and settled at $70.71 on Monday. Texas weather will remain typical for this time of year with highs in the 70's (80's in the Valley) and lows in the 40's with the odd peak into the 30's.

According to the FED, US Industrial production decreased 0.1% in November making the third straight month of declination. The US Budget Deficit swelled indicating a larger deficit number than the record of $1.8 trillion set in 2023. Households that expect their financial situation to be better a year from now jumped to 37% which is the highest since the pandemic. Peter Navarro announced that planned tariffs should not spur further inflation.

Internationally, Canada's government appears on the verge of collapse while Germany and France have already collapsed. The UK government is on a path to a 'no confidence' vote.

Wholesale electricity prices for FY 2025 are slightly less than those in 2026 and 2027 (not considering the cost of credit or time value of money. Please see the attached chart.

According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics, inflation is on the rise. One additional factor to consider when making energy hedging choices for your business.

"The producer price index (PPI) increased by 0.6%, the largest increase since September 1, 2023. Also known as wholesale inflation, the February reading was double that of most estimates. The surprise jump indicates that price pressures continue and are difficult to forecast. PPI measures pipeline costs for raw, intermediate and finished goods.

The PPI is the last major piece of economic data that the Federal Reserve will receive prior to this week’s meeting on interest rates."