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𝗖𝗲𝗿𝘁𝗶𝗳𝗶𝗰𝗮𝘁𝘂𝗹 𝗱𝗲 𝗦𝗶𝘁𝘂𝗮𝘁̦𝗶𝗲 𝗱𝗲 𝗨𝗿𝗴𝗲𝗻𝘁̦𝗮̆ - 𝗢 𝗽𝗿𝗶𝗺𝗮̆ 𝗴𝘂𝗿𝗮̆ 𝗱𝗲 𝗼𝘅𝗶𝗴𝗲𝗻 𝗽𝗲𝗻𝘁𝗿𝘂 𝗮𝗳𝗮𝗰𝗲𝗿𝗲𝗮 𝘁𝗮 𝗽𝗲 𝘁𝗶𝗺𝗽 𝗱𝗲 𝗰𝗿𝗶𝘇𝗮̆

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Political carousel in Bucharest

The Romanian political scene was hot this Summer, lots of changes and twists are also expected for this Fall. In the context of Presidential elections (10 and 24 of November), the fate of the ruling coalition PSD-ALDE was constantly under changing this month, big maneuvers and scenarios being debated from day to day:

- Călin Popescu Tăriceanu, ALDE`s leader and President of the Senate, decided to break apart from the ruling coalition
- the fate of a motion of confidence is also uncertain

Break up for real. The week started with a crucial day for the fate of the PSD-ALDE governing coalition. Although, last week, apparently, PM Viorica Dăncilă and Călin Popescu Tăriceanu, sink the political feud, today Tăriceanu made a U-turn and torpedoed the alliance with PSD.

Driving solo. Monday was probably the last meeting within the coalition members. The steep between the two leaders increased for real after Ms. Dăncila`s move to run for this Fall Presidential elections. Mr. Tăriceanu, on the other hand, who also desired to run-up, did not miss any occasion in the last month to threaten that his political party will withdraw support if PM will not: 1) design a fresh political program and 2) implement a government restructuring. It could be said that all this August political stir was because Mr. Tăriceanu tried to pursue Ms. Dăncilă to stay away from Presidential elections.

All this time, PSD was adamant and claimed what party leaders have decided two weeks ago: 1) PM will operate a governing reshuffle (which already started - nominations will be sent to President Klaus Iohannis next days) 2) the Government will continue to implement the same economic program from 2016.

Empty seats. The Government next steps will be decided in the cross-party meeting of PSD. We remind that ALDE had 4 ministerial portfolios (Environment, Energy, Foreigh Affairs and for Diaspora), at this moment, Tăriceanu ask`s his ministers to resign.

Any change may occur, but we foresee two possibilities:
1. PSD can negotiate with some or all ALDE Ministers to remain in office and continue their projects or,

2. Some or all ALDE`s ministers can resign before the next government meeting, leaving their seats vacant.

Tariceanu will also resign from the position of President of the Senate. Important to say that, Ramona Manescu, Minister of Foreign Affairs, refuses to leave the Office.

PM Viorica Dăncilă speaks about continuity. Besides... things don't seem to be harsh for the Government. Without ALDE`s parliamentary support, there will remain a gap that can be closed on a case-by-case basis through negotiations. Democratic Alliance of Hungarians in Romania (UDMR) are not willing (for now) to join forces with PSD.

Back to ALDE, Tăriceanu is flirting with former PM Victor Ponta, leader of ProRomania to forge a new political alliance. It is possible that after these spectacular movements, ALDE and Pro Romania will support former MEP Mircea Diaconu to run for presidential elections.

Blood underwater. For the Romanian political arena, in the context of Fall`s presidential elections, it's important the next move of National Liberal Party (PNL). Ludovic Orban, PNL`s leader stated that in the next period of time PNL will submit a motion of confidence against Dăncilă III Government. The entire opposition is not prepared to assume the governing and if the disarray from spring`s motion will occur, then probably PM Viorica Dăncilă will not preempted a vote of confidence in Parliament.

source: stackoverflow.com

After all, will follow a Government reshuffle.

Both leaders of the ruling coalition PSD-ALDE, PM Viorica Dancila and Chairman of the Senate, Calin Popescu Tariceanu, meet on Wednesday afternoon to mete the Dancila III`s cabinet future.

The dent between the two leaders increased after Ms. Dancila ploy to run for Presidential elections this Fall. Mr. Tariceanu, on the other hand, who also desire to run-up, did not miss any occasion to threaten that his political party will withdraw support if PM will not propose a fresh political program and a government restructuring. Arguably, the two of them have unfinished business.

After negotiations, political sources stated that ALDE will not volte-face and will continue to back up the Government. Another conclusion is that a reshuffle of the cabinet will follow soon. If last week PM Dancila stalwart asserted in favor of restructuring, today, advocates for a reshuffle.

Until now, the roster of the potential ministers that will be sacked is not known. Friday, PSD will have an internal meeting with the local leaders where negotiations for the government seats are expected to take place.

Next days are very important for political stability.

Governmental restructuring odyssey

PM Viorica Dancila announced that she will start the process of analysing all ministries, mentioning that a restructuring of the entire governmental apparatus is desirable, coupled with a move to decentralize the country’s heavy bureaucratic apparatus.

Getting rid of liabilities: On a factual note, Dancila dismissed Carmen Dan, the Minister for Internal Affairs, and Teodor Melescanu, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, but most ministers will suffer changes. Interestingly enough, the dismissal of these two ministers has a common denominator: Diaspora. Carmen Dan was blamed for the poor reaction in regards to the 10th of August protests in Bucharest where riot police used water cannons and tear sprays on protestors, while Melescanu was accused of setting up too few polling stations for Romanians living abroad and therefore leading to widespread frustration among the right-leaning diaspora. By doing so, the PM eliminated two weak spots where the opposition could have attacked.

New skin in the game: For the position of Minister of Foreign Affairs, Ramona Manescu, member of ALDE and a friend of the PM’s, was proposed by Dancila and accepted by the president. She was elected as an MEP in 2008 and last year she organized Dancila’s visit in the UAE. For the position of Minister of Internal Affairs, a rather anonymous figure was proposed by the PM and accepted by the president: Nicolae Moga. Moga has been a senator since 2008 and at the moment he serves as Vice-president of the Senate and member of the Permanent Office.

A broader picture of the governmental restructuring will be available in September, after the Parliamentary holiday.

Foto credit: bucharest-travel.com

Dăncilă for President! says the PSD’s Executive Committee

DANCILA RISING. The highlight of the PSD’s executive forum was by far the designation of PM Viorica Vasilica Dancila to be the social democratic contender in the presidential elections scheduled for this Fall.

She used this platform to make her typically understated display of power, issuing a call for unity within the PSD and warning all potential dissidenta of tough sanctions. She is the first social democratic woman to run for the country’s highest office.

While this solves Dancila’s problem within the party, it leaves her with two other potential issues to address: ALDE and PRO Romania, both actors being capable of bringing a huge boost to Dancila during the elections.

ALDE STILL ON BOARD. Until a few days ago, there was still talk of PSD and ALDE (junior party of the ruling coalition) potentially nominating Calin Popescu Tariceanu as joint candidate. But now that Dancila was designated, Tariceanu is forced to run on his own or withdraw from the race. Despite this, ALDE’s leader decided not to break the coalition and opted to preserve governmental stability. Tariceanu is a political figure which has no realistic chance of getting in the elections run-off with only his party’s support (especially after a dismal score of 4% in the EU elections). This is where he might prove an asset: in the eventual case in which Dancila gets in the second round, Tariceanu could shift his constituencies in favor of the current PM.

PRO ROMANIA PLAYS HARDBALL: PRO Romania, run by the former PM and PSD Chairman, Victor Ponta, intimated that it would be willing to collaborate with Dancila under certain circumstances. Ponta claimed that he would be willing to support Dancila and form a new government together with his party, only if a massive governmental restructuring will take place. This restructuring could include a change in the public administration and an all-new government with a maximum of 20 ministers (currently there are 27 portfolios). To further back up the claim of collaboration, Dancila tentatively offered two ministries to PRO Romania in the upcoming restructuring in September but there is no signed deal for the time being. Sources within PSD claim that with this move, Dancila wants to show ALDE that she is not dependent on Tariceanu’s party.

ONE BIG HAPPY FAMILY? Recently, Tariceanu stated that it would be normal for PRO Romania to be a part of the governing body which means that the rumors that Ponta’s party might become a part of the government (PSD & ALDE & PRO Romania) are somewhat anchored in the day to day reality.

Given this situation, tables could turn and we might see Tariceanu as a common candidate of ALDE and PRO Romania, while PSD would have another candidate, namely Dancila.

And more to come...

Good morning from Bucharest!

It has been a busy political week in Romania, where new points of interest came up on the political scene. But no need to worry, things look steady.

Here is what happened:

- PM Viorica Dancila was designated as her party’s candidate for the presidential elections scheduled for October - November this year.

- Calin Popescu Tariceanu, ALDE`s leader was hoping to be the one candidate of the PSD-ALDE ruling coalition, but his hoped were dashed following his party’s poor result in the EU elections of May 26. Obviously incensed by Dancila’s decision to run, Tariceanu officially announced he will also stand to be elected, hoping to attract social democrats who are unhappy with Dancila as a candidate. But he also stated clear a paramount issue: ALDE will NOT withdraw from governing!

- Dancila sacked two key ministers and announced she is eyeing a hefty restructuring of the Cabinet in early September.

- For now, the enduring alliance between PSD and ALDE stands as proof of governing stability.

Foto credit: bucharestcityinfo

Romanian Natural Gas Market Overview

According to Romanian energy regulator (ANRE), gas imports rose by 55 percent in January 2019 compared to January 2018, up to 4.2 million MWh, while the average price rose by 37 percent to RON 124.1 per MWh (approx. 27.5 Eur). In january 2019, Romania’s reliance on gas imports rose by 5% compared to January 2018. This increase is mainly due to higher local consumption and the decrease in local gas production.

Last year, Romania’s ruling majority proposed an amendment that will increase the taxes paid by local gas producers, a move that favors imports, according to experts. According to this proposal, the additional tax paid by domestic producers for the natural gas extracted in Romania will be calculated according to the trading prices of the hub from CEGH Vienna.

OMV Petrom, Romania’s most prominent oil & gas group, said that the measure would have a strong negative impact on the local energy sector, in terms of energy supply, employment and investments. The group also said that it will not yet be deciding on a possible investment in gas production in the Black Sea’s Neptun Deep perimeter, due to the current “legislative environment,” referring to the Emergency Ordinance 114/2018.

Meanwhile, Ukraine's failure to reach a deal with Gazprom might put Romania in the situation of seeking to import gas from other sources than the North-South pipeline that crosses Romania’s territory.