Freedom Advisory

The chart shows S&P 500 price performance over the 12 months following the start of each Fed rate-hiking cycle since 1958.

Results have been mixed across cycles, with some periods showing gains and others showing declines. The average 12-month return across these periods has been +1.4%.

Historically, the start of a hiking cycle has corresponded with mixed equity performance on a one-year forward basis, with no consistent direction across cycles. Past performance is not indicative of future results, and this information is for illustrative purposes only.

Global diversification continues to demonstrate its value. Although several areas declined during the past week, emerging markets, Asia, and Latin America have delivered strong results in 2026.

The lesson is simple. Not every region or investment style performs well at the same time. A diversified portfolio provides access to different sources of growth without relying exclusively on the United States market.

Discipline and perspective remain more important than reacting to one week of market movements.

What a difference five years can make.

In 2021, Treasury yields ranged from nearly zero to under 2 percent. Today, they range from 4.35 percent to 5.35 percent, with longer maturities offering higher yields.

For investors, fixed income is once again producing meaningful income. However, higher yields also reflect expectations about inflation, economic growth, and government borrowing. The opportunity is attractive, but selecting the right maturity remains important.

This is why investment decisions should be based on today’s environment, not the conditions we became accustomed to during the years of near-zero interest rates.

The chart shows the S&P 500's total return year-to-date, broken down into contributions from three segments: earnings growth, P/E multiple, and dividends.

A Recent Look at the Data: Year-to-date, the S&P 500's total return is 12.63%.

Breaking down returns this way helps show whether market gains are being supported by underlying fundamentals or shifts in valuation.

Treasury buybacks are back, and so is the dollar.

After a rocky first half of 2026, the Bloomberg US Dollar Spot Index has stabilized while gold has given back a chunk of its early-year surge. The chart tells the story: gold's spring rally cooled through summer, even as the greenback held its ground.

Worth watching as we head into Q4, currency stability and precious metals often move in tension, and this year has been no exception.

Not investment advice. For informational purposes only.

This chart shows federal interest payments as a share of the federal government's total spending, rather than the dollar amount owed.

Currently, federal interest payments account for 16.1% of federal spending. That compares to a long-term average of 15.0% since 1947.

The amount of debt owed has continued to set records. What it costs to pay the interest each year, measured against everything the government spends, has not.

The chart tracks the first-half performance spread between U.S. small caps and large caps since 2005.

Small caps have trailed large caps in 14 of the past 21 first halves, including steep underperformance in 2020 (-10.0%) and 2024 (-13.5%). But 2026 broke that pattern decisively, with small caps outperforming large caps by 12.3%.

A sharp reversal after years of small-cap underperformance may signal a shift in market leadership, though one strong half does not confirm a durable trend. Investors with diversified exposure across market caps are positioned to benefit from such rotations without needing to time them.

The chart shows that large market declines of 1% or more occur regularly; there have been 31 such days each year since 1990. While these drops can be unsettling, they are a natural part of investing in stocks and should be expected.

In 2026, the S&P 500 experienced 16 days with declines of 1% or more.

Despite daily fluctuations, the stock market has historically rewarded long-term investors. Staying disciplined through volatility has enabled investors to benefit from the S&P 500's long-term upward trajectory.

📈 Markets Continue Climbing, but Not for the Reason Many Think

One of the biggest misconceptions is that stocks rise simply because investors are willing to pay higher prices.

This chart tells a different story.

Over the last two years:

🔵 Forward earnings expectations for the S&P 500 have increased approximately 43%.

🟠 Forward P/E multiples have actually declined by about 5%.

⚪ The index has gained roughly 35%.

In other words, most of the market's advance has been driven by improving corporate earnings, not by investors paying increasingly higher valuation multiples.

That's an important distinction.

When earnings grow faster than stock prices, valuations can actually become more reasonable, even as the market reaches new highs.

It also serves as a reminder that focusing solely on headlines or index levels can cause investors to miss what is really driving long-term returns.

At Freedom Advisory, we believe successful investing comes from separating signal from noise and staying focused on the fundamentals.

Data source: Bloomberg. Chart compares S&P 500 price appreciation, forward 12-month earnings estimates, and forward P/E multiple changes over the past two years. Past performance does not guarantee future results.

This chart shows how long you're expected to live based on your current age, split by gender. Here's the part people miss: the older you get, the longer you're expected to live. Hitting 80 doesn't mean you're near the end. It means your odds of reaching your 90s just went way up.

A 50-year-old man is expected to live to 80, while a woman is expected to live to 83. But if that same man reaches 80, he's now expected to make it to 89. Reach 90 and the number climbs to 94. Women live longer than men at every age, but the gap shrinks from 3 years at 50 to 1 year by 90.

Living for 30 years in retirement was rare. Now it's common. The harder problem isn't running out of time, it's running out of money before you run out of life. That means income that holds up into your 90s, a spending pace that can go the distance, and coverage that fits a longer life than most people plan for.