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COL Financial Group, Inc.
First Metro Securities
DragonFi

‎Volatility Metrics
‎Average True Range and BETA
‎May 21, 2026
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‎Common Question: "Sell na ba?"
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‎Most of us would ask not when to buy, madali yun e, but the hard question is when to sell? Yung iba satin quarterly nagrereview ng fundamentals, yung iba naman kung kelan lang sumpungin magreview.
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‎Personally, I try to develop rules kung kelan ako magbebenta, dati ang ginagawa ko based lang sa decline na kaya ng sikmura ko.
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‎Kung bumaba yung stock ng 15% ayoko na, But that is emotional investing and it is dangerous, then I discovered ATR and BETA.
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‎ATR or Average True Range and BETA are most commonly used by traders but us long term investors can also use this as a signal to check fundamentals and determine if the decline is just short term noise or permanent damage.
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‎⛑️ BETA muna tayo.
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‎Ayoko ng malikot na stock natatakot ako haha so one of my personal criteria is BETA madali lang to, I use research tools to determine this.
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‎BETA is the meter to tell us kung gano kavolatile ang stock against the benchmark.
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‎PSEi is 1 so any stock na above 1 matic ayoko yan, gusto ko below 1.
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‎Why?
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‎if a stock is 0.5 beta ibig sabihin pag gumalaw pababa yung PSEi ng 100, yung stock na hawak ko give or take nasa 50 lang ang pagbaba nya.
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‎Syempre may kapalit, pag umakyat ng 100 ang PSEi ibig sabihin yung stock ko 50 lang ang iaakyat, okay lang sakin yun since yun lang kaya ng risk appetite ko, mental health over money.
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‎Kaya sa pagbili ng stock one of my criteria is low BETA.
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‎⚡ ATR naman!
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‎Ganito, konti lang ang stocks na hawak ko so I can easily compile records of it. ATR is one of the records I track. It is the 14 day price movements, syempre I also keep track of the 52 Week Range.
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‎In short ATR is the price movement and Speed of Movement kung daily piso up piso down, aba e magtatanong na ko kung sakaling biglang bumaba ng higit sa piso within a short amount of time.
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‎😶‍🌫️ Let's put it in to perspective
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‎Halimbawa, bumili ako ng Sleepless Investor REIT.
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‎✅ Binili ko ng kinse.
‎✅ Beta is 0.50
‎✅ ATR is Piso Up/Piso Down per day.
‎✅ 52 Week Range is ₱10 to ₱20
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‎Low beta means hindi malikot
‎ATR in this example is yung heart rate.
‎52 Week range is my bench mark.
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‎Kung bumaba ng ₱0.50, wala yan!
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‎But if a low beta stock moves ₱2.50, kinukumbusyon na yung stock, abnormal yan! So I check the speed.
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‎👉 Moves within 14 days
‎If bumaba ng 2.5 gradually within 14 days, this is when I review fundamentals, utang, income and everything in between. I also check the news to see what happened because ang thinking ko, the market is POTENTIALLY repricing the stock.
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‎👉 Moves in less than 1 day
‎If the 2.5 change is within 4 or 5 hours, this is the stock shouting "SOMETHING CHANGED" Someone knows something I do not know because this is already "liquidity shock." Eto yung "laptop+PSE EDGE+Manila Bulletin+Inquirer tabs open all at the same time" moments.
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‎Hanapan na to ng dahilan and once makita yung reason, I wait 24 hours before taking action pahihinugin ko muna baka over reaction+herd mentality lang.
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‎But I will be focused and observant kasi nga low beta tapos abnormal yung movement.
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‎You don't have to do this ha, this is not a financial advise, I am posting this to refine my thought process, and this is me acting within the limitation of my capital, age and risk appetite.
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‎📚 Rationale
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‎To clarify, a ₱2.50 drop in 4 hours is panic, this is where I hunt for the trigger.
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‎A ₱2.50 drop over 14 days is a trend, so I hunt for the root cause.
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‎One is an emotional outburst; the other is a market repricing. I treat them differently.
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‎But in both cases, a huge movement to ATR of a low beta stock is my signal to check fundamentals.
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‎😴 Inside ATR 👉 Ignore
‎🚨 Outside ATR 👉 Review
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‎For example walang bad news sa mga news outlets within the past 14 days, wala din namang nagbago sa fundamentals like earnings, utang or everything in between, wala ding bagong disclosure.
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‎This means it is just noise, pwedeng bumaba sya dahil napaglaruan ng maraming traders tapos may herd mentality that followed na umexit kasi natakot tapos nagtuloy tuloy na. If this is the case, I accumulate, yun e kung may pambili.
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‎But if may bagong disclosure yung company sa PSE EDGE I wait 24 hours to see if the news outlets will pick it up and confirm it. If confirmed, then it is permanent damage, hindi ko na hahayaang umabot pa ng 52 week low. Kung mabagal ako or magkamali tapos umabot sa 52 Week low, edi charge to experience, ganun talaga.
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‎"Anu yan tutok ka sa stocks? Wala ka ng buhay?"
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‎No! If you must know my lifestyle, I get home by 5:30am, cook for my family, post a pre researched piece by 6am (my wife helps with the research) play with the children check the stocks at 9, 10 or 11am while watching, then post a piece by 12nn, sleep at 1pm and wakes up by 7pm to go to work, so yes hindi po ako tutok sa stocks.
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‎Anyway, going back...

Beta is my "peace of mind meter" when buying, ATR of 14 days is my "peace of mind meter" when holding.
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‎When combined, sila yung early warning device ko, They tell me when to check fundamentals.
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‎They don't tell me when to accumulate or exit. Fundamentals pa din ang nagsasabi nun.
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‎I use them both against my risk appetite. So importante pa din na alam natin yung personal risk appetite natin
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‎Syempre, IDEALLY, it can be used the opposite way yung pag mag take profit ba, if it is temporary spike tapos babalik din sa entry price. Pero di ko ginagawa kasi di ko pa kaya yun, its too advanced for me and my confidence in my intelligence isn't that much.
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‎But, I could be wrong, My understanding of BETA and ATR can be wrong, it is important that you do your own research and be skeptical of everything you read online.
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‎🚨 Disclaimer:
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‎I am not a licensed financial advisor, investment analyst, or a professional fund manager.
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‎I am an individual investor sharing my personal investment "homework" and my own risk management system. This post is for educational and documentation purposes only and is not a solicitation, recommendation, or financial advice to buy or sell any security.
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‎I am not affiliated with any brokerage, investment firm, or financial institution. Any financial decision you make is 100% your own responsibility.
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‎If you choose to follow my thought process, you do so at your own risk. Always conduct your own due diligence. Investing involves the risk of loss, and your capital is your responsibility.
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‎PS. and please don't take any recos from anyone that's dangerous, Protect your capital mahirap kitain ang pera.

Sa mga nagtatanong po kung may videos ako about REITs and Dividend stocks, wala na po. Hindi na rin ako active sa Youtube.

Hindi na ako gumagawa ng Video tutorials more on text and photo contents nalang. Time flexible kasi kapag text and photos lang. Maraming time sa family and hustle sa buhay.

Though these are my recommended youtubers na pwede kayo matuto about stock investing thru video contents.

Good Evening 🩵 Hiraya Manawari