Prince Rabiu Y Ahmed

Standing up to the World Bank/IMF – between Buhari, the deep blue sea and Tinubu.
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STANDING UP TO THE WORLD BANK/IMF –
BETWEEN BUHARI, THE DEEP BLUE SEA AND TINUBU

Every Nigerian President leaves behind a legacy of the policies adopted while in office, its results providing grounds for subsequent praise or criticism. In the case of former President, Muhammadu Buhari, the disparaging narratives about his administration may not be leaving the media soon, especially as the current administration and its proponents have assumed the full-time job of capitalising on this to defend and whitewash their administration after realising that their Bretton Woods policies have failed.

The World Bank, a major advocate of the Bretton Woods Policies, recently presented a sobering picture in its Latest Nigerian Update (NDU), asserting that Buhari’s administration effectively reversed 16 years of economic progress in Nigeria. The report highlighted that a combination of policy inconsistencies and the contraction of the oil sector during Buhari's tenure led to a significant reduction in GDP per capita—approximately one-third—from 2015 to 2023. Simply put, the World Bank paints Buhari's administration as the harbinger of the current misery troubling the so-called giant of Africa. This position aligns with the pile of misinformation that has been released since the start of the current administration by its media contractors and must be addressed proactively and critically.

Throughout Buhari's time in office, he faced pressure from global actors, particularly the IMF and World Bank, to devalue the Naira and remove fuel subsidies, claiming the Naira was overvalued and market forces should determine its value. However, he consistently maintained his resolve not to devalue the naira. This wasn't new - in 1984, when he served as the military head of state, he had similarly refused these recommendations. Unlike some other Nigerian administrations that uncritically embraced neoliberal recommendations, Buhari charted his own course, and an objective analysis shows that his resolve saved the country from a more devastating economic plunge than what we're experiencing now.

Despite inheriting significant difficulties, Buhari stabilised the Nigerian economy while facing multiple crises. He weathered two recessions, a global collapse in crude oil prices, and militants disrupting oil production from 2.3 million barrels per day to less than 800,000 barrels per day. He confronted widespread insecurity throughout Nigeria and managed the unprecedented COVID-19 pandemic that shut down the world for more than seven months.

During these exceptionally challenging times, Buhari maintained very low and stable prices for food, fuel, products, and services. His administration sustained domestic manufacturing and food production even during the COVID-19 pandemic, ensuring there was no shortage of rice, food staples, petrol, or other goods. He accomplished this without criticising the PDP for the $67 billion debt they left him, while also slowly expanding foreign reserves and keeping the naira largely stable throughout this period.

The administration's achievements extended to labour and employment. Buhari never missed worker payments despite reduced oil production and price crashes. Instead, he raised the minimum wage from 18,000 to 30,000 naira. He overturned the decade-long ban on federal employment, doubled pay for teachers, police officers, and soldiers, and cleared massive backlogs of unpaid salaries, benefits, and pension arrears. His government provided hundreds of billions of naira to state governments for employee payments and implemented the largest palliative programme Africa had ever seen during the COVID-19 lockdown. Those who ask why Nigeria had to borrow money, largely domestic borrowing, should ask again. Buhari borrowed to save your life!

The stability of Buhari's tenure is reflected in key economic indicators. The pump price of petrol increased by just about N100 in eight years, while the Naira depreciated from N196 to N460, a difference of N264 – in eight years. Electricity tariffs saw modest increases of between N32 to N47 per kWh, and mobile call rates remained largely unchanged.

Even the World Bank and IMF acknowledged the Buhari administration's impact on Nigeria's economic growth, highlighting the scale of its economic changes. In its April 2023 World Economic Outlook report, the IMF maintained a 3.2% growth prediction for Nigeria’s economy in 2023. Despite facing challenges such as the COVID-19 aftermath, the Russia-Ukraine war, and rising inflation, Nigeria's economy still achieved 3.0% growth in 2022. While the IMF anticipated a global economic contraction to 2.8% in 2023, Nigeria's economy was projected to grow by 3.2%. Although the incoming administration inherited financial liabilities, Buhari's government laid a solid foundation for growth, with a stable economy and substantial assets.

In April 2023, the IMF recognized Nigeria's economy as "one of the most stable in Africa," noting that improvements in infrastructure, investment opportunities, growth-oriented reforms, and a more favourable business climate had helped stabilise the country, despite global challenges like inflation, the Ukraine conflict, supply chain disruptions, and lingering post-pandemic effects.
During Buhari’s tenure, Nigeria's position as Africa’s largest economy strengthened, with real GDP rising from US$493 billion in 2014 to US$535 billion in 2022. Politicians and political jobbers have been posting false figures to suit their purposes. Over eight years, Buhari navigated the economy through a global pandemic, recessions, and other setbacks, while overseeing significant population growth. From 1999, when Obasanjo took office, to 2022, Nigeria's population increased by 100 million. The addition of 39 million Nigerians to our population was during the Buhari era, yet the economy grew. The economy Buhari managed in 2022 was nearly twice the size of Obasanjo's in 2006 (Nigeria’s Real GDP in 2006 was US$290 billion. Compare with US$385 billion in 2010 under Yar’adua; US$480 billion under Jonathan; and US$535 billion under Buhari. The same World Bank wants us to believe that the economy was worse under Buhari. Why? Because Buhari stood up to them and achieved great gains. Under Buhari, Nigeria was locked down for seven months during the COVID-19 pandemic, but Nigerians were not hungry. Jobs were saved; businesses were saved. Inflation was properly managed – without World Bank/IMF prescriptions. Despite these gains, the World Bank, historically critical of Buhari due to his opposition to Bretton Woods policies, now praises President Tinubu's administration, which has embraced IMF and World Bank economic pills.

This shift has led the World Bank to adopt a more favourable stance towards Tinubu, and seeking to accentuate this by using propaganda to diminish Buhari's achievements. It appears that the World Bank is eager to keep Nigeria on the path of Bretton Woods reforms—approaches that previously contributed to economic challenges. By reinforcing Tinubu’s men’s narrative of discrediting Buhari's administration, the World Bank may be attempting to deflect attention from the current administration's shortcomings.

But while the media and global institutions may focus on insignificant metrics, the true measure of economic policy is its impact on the daily lives of Nigerians. Since Tinubu took office in May 2023, the difference has been stark. The Naira has plummeted from N460 to about N1,700 per dollar, and fuel prices have soared from N184-N200 to over a thousand Naira per litre. The effect on inflation has been severe. Inheriting an inflation rate of 22.41% in May 2023, it surged to a staggering 32.7% by October 2024—the highest since March 1996. This increase has severely eroded purchasing power and strained economic growth.

Nigerians who once hoped for stability have instead witnessed an economic decline. Devaluation has led to soaring inflation, escalating transport costs, rising unemployment, declining industrial activity, business closures, and increased food insecurity. Meanwhile, new tax reforms target basic necessities, from electricity to agriculture, exacerbating the hardship.

What is even more worrying is the continued praise from Bretton Woods institutions for Tinubu’s reforms despite their clear toll on ordinary Nigerians. Only the World Bank and their agents, the IMF, foreign interests, and benefitting government officials are praising Tinubu and his policies. Nigerians are not; they are not happy and they’re not smiling. Historical failures of similar economic policies, such as the 1986 Structural Adjustment Programme, remain fresh in the country’s memory. Evidence from various regions—Latin America, Africa, and beyond—suggests that strict adherence to IMF and World Bank prescriptions has rarely led to sustainable economic development. Even Western institutions have recently warned Nigeria that these measures won't lead to prosperity. Yet, Tinubu’s administration remains committed to an outdated playbook, following IMF and World Bank prescriptions despite their track record of economic distress.

While Buhari's government subsidised essential services—education, healthcare, agriculture, electricity, petrol, and the exchange rate—keeping costs manageable for citizens, the current administration has significantly raised the cost of living. An ordinary bag of rice has gone from N18,000-N22,000 to a whooping N125,000. This shift towards a one-sided, anti-masses policy has increased hardship for ordinary Nigerians. Nigerians are hungry; Nigerians are dying; businesses are dying. Yet, the Tinubu leadership continues to call for patience and understanding in the face of rising hunger, malnutrition, and disease, while making no visible effort to adjust their own failed stance. They keep looking for scapegoats, despite having charted a path that is not viable.

Essentially, the World Bank's praise for Tinubu's reforms, despite their negative impact on ordinary Nigerians, raises serious questions about whether the institution truly understands Nigeria's economic reality and whether its recommended policies actually benefit the Nigerian people. What has become clear is that the World Bank's support for the current administration's policies aligns with ideological preferences and foreign interest, and not the actual welfare of Nigerian citizens.

Rabiu Yau Ahmed

Rabiu Yau Ahmed can be reached at [email protected]

Let's bring Buhari back; how the former administration actually kept Nigeria steady. Read full article in the comments.

Hello! I am Rabiu Ahmed, an on-the-ground journalist and news blogger. Kindly HIT the FOLLOW button as I bring you the latest headlines and in-depth analysis from both the local and global stage.

An intriguing look at the contrasting economic policies of Nigeria's former and current administrations. Which do you think prioritizes both economic stability and social welfare?

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