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3 Numbers To Watch: DE retail sales, EU CPI, UK consumer credit!

• January boost in German retail sales unsustainable
• Consumer spending remains a critical driver for the UK’s recovery
• Encouraging signs in EU, but inflation data could disappoint

Retail sales in Germany will kick off Monday's trading day in Europe, followed by an update on consumer credit in the UK. Later, we’ll see a report that could be a major news event in macro for the week ahead: the flash estimate of Eurozone consumer price inflation for March. Keep in mind, too, that the Bank of England releases new money supply data (08:30 GMT).

Germany Retail Sales (06:00 GMT) The sharp improvement in economic sentiment in the Eurozone last month offers another tantalizing number for wondering if the Continent’s macro trend is finally poised for better days. The jury’s still out and probably will be for several more months. Meantime, there’s a growing collection of numbers that leave a bit more room for upbeat forecasts. That includes Friday’s update of the European Commission's Economic Sentiment Indicator, which increased to the highest level in nearly three years. Indeed, the five-biggest economies in the Eurozone reported higher levels of optimism, according to this benchmark.

Deciding if there’s a genuine improvement requires looking for confirmation in the hard data. That’s going to take time, although it starts with today’s update on retail spending in Germany for February. It’s interesting to note that consumption in Europe’s largest economy surged in January by 2.5 percent over the previous month — the most since 2007. Some of this is attributable to a snap-back from December’s unusually steep decline and so the January pop is unsustainable. Research firm Gfk projects only a “slight” increase for retail spending this year in Germany. But to the extent that Europe’s growth engine can maintain forward momentum in the all-important consumer sector, improving confidence generally will translate into stronger odds for thinking that the worst may really be over this time.

The main risk, of course, is the potential for macro blowback via the Russia-Ukraine crisis. It’s unclear how this plays out at this point and so good news on the economic front could be subject to change for geopolitical reasons. Otherwise, we’re still at the point when much depends on Germany and so today’s release will set the tone for looking ahead.

UK Consumer Credit (08:30 GMT) Consumer spending remains a critical driver for the UK’s recovery, as last week’s better-than-expected report on retail sales for February reminds. Economists were looking for a moderate rise of 0.4 percent in the monthly comparison. Instead, the Office for National Statistics reported a sizzling 1.7 percent surge, which pushed the annual change up to a 3.7 percent advance.

“The UK consumer is powering on, helped by improving pay growth, subsiding inflation and very low interest rates,” Berenberg’s chief UK economist told Reuters after the data was released. “Even the rain during February did not appear to dampen spirits on the high street.”

Some analysts worry that Britain’s recovery is overly dependent on the consumer and too little on business investment. That may be a problem for the longer run, but for now the retail momentum looks set to dominate. Indeed, there are new projections in some quarters for a substantial improvement in the growth of real wages, which has been soft lately. If so, February’s impressive gain in retail sales may be a sign of things to come for the rest of 2014. In turn, we may see a substantial rise in today’s monthly update on consumer credit from the Bank of England. Credit-card debt has been stuck in a range for much of the past year with a ceiling of about GBP 300 million to GBP 320m. A breakout above that level in today’s February release would be taken as another signal that consumer spending will continue to rise in the months ahead.

A buying binge may worry some analysts, but increased demand for credit will be seen as a bullish sign for the near term. Consumers certainly aren’t worried. Gfk’s UK Consumer Confidence Index in March posted a strong increase. “Over the last year the overall index has risen by a massive 22 points — the biggest single-year rise since November 2008-October 2009 and there hasn’t been a bigger one-year rise since July 1977-June 1978,” a Gfk analyst said during last week’s release.

EU Consumer Price Index (09:00 GMT) There are some encouraging signs in Europe’s economic reports these days, but if there’s a spoiler waiting in the wings it may show up in today's inflation data. In the previous release, the February estimate of consumer prices was a stark reminder that there’s still a strong whiff of disinflation in the Eurozone. The harmonized consumer price index (CPI) slipped to a 0.7 percent year-over-year increase through last month, matching a low point in October's data. The previous dip to 0.7 percent moved the European Central Bank (ECB) to cut interest rates and reassure the market that monetary policy would remain focused on keeping the disinflation/deflation risk from gaining momentum. It’s debatable if falling prices are still a viable threat, although one can argue that the European Central Bank has at least stabilized the growth rate for the money supply, or so last week’s M3 numbers suggest.

In any case, there are no illusions about what’s at stake in today’s flash CPI estimate for March. With inflation bumping along at unusually low levels, the central bank can’t afford to let the pace sink any further. But it’s too soon to rule out that possibility, as implied by last week’s unexpectedly soft numbers on March consumer inflation numbers for Germany and Spain. Some analysts are already saying that the ECB will be forced to roll out a new phase of monetary stimulus at this Thursday’s policy announcement. The odds will certainly rise for expecting more ECB action later this week if today’s annual CPI number falls again.

CPI, Retail Sales Headline Sterling’s Outlook

The British pound was treading water Monday, as the forex market eyes an active data wire headlined by the consumer price index and retail sales.

Observers of sterling will note the currency’s relative weakness in recent weeks. The markets became jittery about the pound after Bank of England officials pondered about the UK’s struggling export market. In a speech to the North East Chamber of Commerce two weeks ago, out-going BOE Deputy Governor Charlie Bean expressed concern that any additional strength for the pound could weigh on Britain’s export-based recovery. Since then, sterling has lost more than 1.3 percent against its US rival.

The pound extended its losses last week after the US Federal Reserve hinted at a possible rate hike as early as Q2 2015.

Data on consumer price inflation and retail sales could help shore up the pound this week. The Office for National Statistics could show annual consumer price inflation ease from 1.9 percent to 1.7 percent in February, according to forecasts. While easing inflation certainly supports struggling UK households, who reported stronger than forecast earnings growth in the three months through January, this will likely place further pressure on the pound.

The ONS’ retail sales report will hit the markets Thursday. The report could show retail receipts rose 0.5 percent in February, following the sharpest decline in nearly two years.

Market participants should use this week’s data to size the pace of UK recovery, and determine whether the BOE could be compelled to shift its stance on monetary policy sooner than expected.

In the morning North American session, the GBPUSD pair was trading at 1.6478, virtually unchanged from its previous close.

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Keep It Simple, Central Bankers!

This week, the U.S. Federal Reserve and the Bank of England both made welcome moves toward more simplicity. Specifically, they recast the "forward guidance" they'd previously given investors about their intentions.

Both central banks have been surprised by unexpectedly rapid falls in unemployment. The Fed had previously promised not to start raising interest rates before unemployment in the U.S. had fallen to 6.5 percent. At 6.6 percent, it's almost there -- but the recovery is still weak and the Fed has no intention of raising rates for a good while yet. The Bank of England's unemployment threshold was 7 percent. That's probably already been reached, but the U.K. also will most likely need low interest rates for many months to come.

It was a mistake all along to make specific rates of unemployment "thresholds" for adjusting monetary policy. The state of the labor market is crucial for judging policy, but it isn't the only factor; in any case, the headline rate of unemployment doesn't accurately measure labor-market conditions. U.S. unemployment has fallen rapidly partly because workers are quitting the labor force, not just because they're getting jobs. There's plenty of room for the U.K.'s economy to grow, too, despite the unexpectedly rapid fall in unemployment.

In both countries, adding unemployment rates to the guidance was meant to support demand by convincing investors that interest rates would stay very low for longer. This was the right objective under the circumstances. Then the unemployment measure started getting smaller -- and investors began to get confused. Rather than clarify their guidance, thus making it even more complicated, new Fed Chairman Janet Yellen and the Bank of England's Mark Carney rightly chose to make it simpler.

Carney's new formulation omits the unemployment rate altogether, and he says instead that the Bank of England "will not take risks with the recovery." There's plenty of spare capacity, he said, and even when that starts to run out, the bank will raise rates slowly and cautiously. The bank also published more information on its economic forecasts than it has before, showing it currently expects rates to stay put until mid-2015.

Yellen wasn't quite so forthright in abandoning the Fed's unemployment threshold, but what she said amounts to the same thing. The fact that headline unemployment is close to 6.5 percent tells investors approximately nothing -- and that's official. She said the Fed is now looking beyond traditional measures of unemployment to judge the tightness of the labor market and detect any incipient pressure on inflation.

This new balance makes sense. Give investors more information and explain the thinking more fully -- but don't tie policy to specific indicators, and don't make promises (or seem to make promises) you don't intend to keep.

Goldman's 5 Key Questions For Janet Yellen!

Fed Chair Janet Yellen will deliver her inaugural monetary policy testimony on February 11 and 13. Her prepared remarks will be released at 8:30amET and the testimony will begin at 10amET. Goldman, unlike the market of the last 3 days, believes that Ms. Yellen is likely to "stick to the script" in her first public remarks since taking over from Bernanke but they look for additional color on the following issues: (1) the recent patch of softer data; (2) the Fed's thinking on EM weakness; (3) the hurdle for stopping the taper; (4) the amount of slack in the labor market; and (5) the future of forward guidance.

USD/JPY: Trading the ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI!

The ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI (Purchasing Manager Index) is based on a survey of purchasing managers active in the services sector of the economy. Respondents are surveyed for their view of the economy and business conditions in the US. A reading that is higher than the estimate is bullish for the US dollar.

Here are all the details, and 5 possible outcomes for USD/JPY.

Published on Wednesday at 15:00 GMT.

Indicator Background

Market analysts are always interested in the views of purchase managers on the economy, as the latter are considered to be attuned to the latest economic and financial developments, and their expectations could be an indication of the health of the economy. An unexpected reading from the index could affect the movement of USD/JPY.

ISM Non-Manufacturing PMI has lost ground in the past two releases, missing the estimate each time. In December, the reading of 53.0 was the index’s lowest level in six months. The estimate for the January release stands at 53.6 points. Will the index beat this prediction?

Sentiments and levels

Last week, the Federal Reserve tapered QE for the second time in two months and this reduction was an important vote of confidence in the US economy. Meanwhile, the Bank of Japan is moving full steam ahead with its current aggressive monetary program, which cost the yen close to 20% of its value in 2013. Thus, the overall sentiment is bullish on USD/JPY towards this release.

Technical levels, from top to bottom: 104.65, 104, 102.50, 101.44, 100.85 and 100.

5 Scenarios

1, Within expectations: 51.6 to 55.6: In such a case, USD/JPY is likely to rise within range, with a small chance of breaking higher.
2, Above expectations: 55.7 to 58.7: An unexpected higher reading can send the pair above one resistance line.
3, Well above expectations: Above 58.7: The chances of a sharp expansion are low. Such an outcome would likely prop up USD/JPY, and a second resistance line might be broken as a result.
4, Below expectations: 48.5 to 51.5: A sharper decrease than forecast could cause the pair to lose one level of support.
5, Well below expectations: Below 48.5: In this outcome, USD/JPY would likely drop, possibly breaking below a second support level.

3 Numbers to Watch: German unemployment, US GDP, jobless claims!

• German unemployment expected to highlight Eurozone schism
• Austerity-led strategy ongoing despite periphery weakness
• US Q4 GDP expected to tick along at steady 3 percent growth

Thursday’s a busy day for economic reports, including Germany’s unemployment update. Later, we’ll see the first US GDP estimate for last year’s fourth quarter along with the weekly initial jobless claims release for the US. Meanwhile, don’t overlook the arrival of new monetary data for the UK (09:30 GMT) or the EU economic sentiment report (10:00 GMT).

Germany Unemployment (08:55 GMT) Yesterday’s news that the growth rate of the money supply tumbled in the Eurozone raises the risk disinflation/deflation… again. That's a problem because inflation has been at or near record lows lately for EU history; bank lending to private firms continues to decline; and the "recovery" across Europe is feeble at best. The ongoing deceleration in the year-over-year growth of money supply isn't helping. In fact, we're at the point where it may become fatal in a macro sense if this dark trend is allowed to persist much longer. Broad money (M3) increased a thin one percent in the 12 months through December — down sharply from 1.5 percent in the previous month, the European Central Bank (ECB) reported. "The weakness of the monetary aggregates remains a warning sign that the fight to ward off deflationary pressures has not been won yet," an ING economist told Reuters.

Meantime, today’s unemployment report for Germany will likely provide another example of the exception to Europe’s dangerous flirtation with the “d” risk. But in the wake of the soft data for EU money supply, the market will have another excuse to focus on the fact that Germany’s resilience still represents a sharp contrast with the rest of Europe. The president of the European Commission recently tried to talk up the prospects for recovery, but then admitted that "we're not out of the crisis with such high levels of unemployment." The encouraging numbers that we’ll probably see for Germany today, although welcome, will remind everyone that there’s still a festering problem elsewhere in Europe and one that even the Continent’s main growth engine can’t fix without broader support from the ECB.

A Berlin train whisks commuters to work as Germany gets ready for a positive unemployment report. Photo: Pelucco \ Thinkstock

The irony is that the ECB is constrained by Germany's hefty influence on all things monetary in the Eurozone, an influence that continues to lean toward austerity rather than stimulus. It's anyone's guess how long political tolerance will endure for an austerity-for-all policy bias that's generally inappropriate for every nation save one.

US Q4 GDP (13:30 GMT) Economists think we’ll see a decent rate of growth in today’s initial estimate of GDP for last year’s fourth quarter. The consensus forecast anticipates a 3.0 percent rise (seasonally adjusted annual rate) for Q4, which is in line with my econometric projection. That’s well below Q3’s 4.1 percent advance, but the prediction is still an encouraging number that, if realised, will keep the bears on the defensive. “Overall, the report should show a healthy end to 2013 and momentum heading into 2014,” advised an economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch.

It’s already clear that the US economy has been growing at a moderate pace lately. Consider last week’s update of the Chicago Fed National Activity Index, which advanced at an above-trend pace in December, based on the benchmark’s three-month average. My big-picture analysis of the US economy also suggests that the forward momentum is intact through last month. Yes, a number of headwinds continue to weigh on the outlook — the soft rate of jobs growth in particular remains unimpressive lately. But given the generally upbeat numbers for a range of indicators in recent months, it would be surprising to see today’s GDP number deliver a big downside move.

US Initial Jobless Claims (13:30 GMT) Today’s GDP report will grab most of the attention for US economic news, but the weekly claims report still deserves attention for deciding how the macro trend is unfolding. For the moment, the numbers look a bit tired on this front. Although claims have come down recently from the surge in December, it’s unclear if the sluggish retreat in new filings for unemployment benefits this month is a sign of a cyclical rough patch or a temporary winter freeze that will thaw with the warmer weather.

Today’s update may provide an answer, in which case we’ll have more traction for guesstimating what the January payrolls report will reveal when it’s published next week (February 7). Meantime, there’s nothing particularly troubling in the claims data of late other than the fact that the decline has slowed. Indeed, new filings fell by a modest 5 percent last week vs. the year-earlier level, the weakest comparison since mid-December. But there's a good chance that the number du jour won't say much of anything. Economists think we’ll see a slight uptick in today’s release. In that case, the outlook for the labour market will continue to look muddled. The optimists say that unusually cold weather throughout the US has squeezed growth generally. In that case, another soft report for claims can be dismissed as noise, although it’ll also be a reminder that next week’s payrolls news could be lackluster too.

Fed poised for $10 billion taper as Bernanke bids adieu!

Turmoil in emerging markets and a month of disappointing job growth at home are unlikely to deter the Federal Reserve from trimming its bond-buying stimulus on Wednesday, as Ben Bernanke wraps up his last policy meeting at the helm of the U.S. central bank.

Overall signs of improvement in the U.S. economy suggest Fed officials will stay on track to cut monthly purchases of Treasuries and mortgage-backed securities by $5 billion each, bringing the total of their monthly asset purchases to $65 billion.

The meeting is Bernanke's last before Vice Chair Janet Yellen moves into the top spot.

Bernanke took the Fed far into uncharted territory during his eight years on the job, building a $4 trillion balance sheet and keeping interest rates near zero for more than five years to pull the economy from its worst downturn in decades.

With those efforts beginning to pay off - and concerns growing over possible harm from so much money printing - the Fed

announced plans last month to phase out the bond buying by late this year unless the economy takes a decided turn for the worse.

It started by trimming its monthly purchases to $75 billion from $85 billion, and on Wednesday, the U.S. central bank is expected to shave another $10 billion.

"It's clear the Fed wants to taper," said Eric Stein, portfolio manager at Eaton Vance in Boston.

Even so, the Fed is nowhere near to making a decision to raise rates. Policymakers are expected to stick to their promise to keep rates near zero until well after the U.S. unemployment rate, now at 6.7 percent, falls to 6.5 percent. The Fed is set to announce its decision at 2 p.m. EST.

A dismal employment report for December showing businesses added far fewer jobs than expected raised some doubts about the Fed's commitment to keep tapering its stimulus.

But largely upbeat data in recent weeks, from consumer spending and confidence to industrial production, bolstered the view of an improving economy, which forecasters estimate grew at an above-trend annual rate of 3.2 percent in the fourth quarter after notching a 4.1 percent advance in the previous quarter.

The show of strength provides a welcome backdrop for Bernanke, who steps down on Friday after an unusually tumultuous and highly experimental stint atop the world's most influential central bank.

EMERGING DISTRACTIONS

Steep losses in emerging market assets over the past week led some to question whether the Fed might put plans to trim its bond buying on hold. Analysts said the prospect of less Fed stimulus had added to other worries, from signs of slower growth in China to political turmoil in countries from Turkey to Thailand, and helped spark investors' flight.

But on Wednesday, Turkey's central bank sharply raised its main interest rates, stemming both a slide in the lira and fears about cuts in U.S. monetary stimulus.

That move could make the Fed's decision to trim its bond buying even easier, economists said.

"It would take a full-blown crisis that ensnares all (emerging market economies) to have a material effect on the U.S. economy, and I don't think that's what they see," said Roberto Perli, a former Fed official who is now a Washington-based partner at economic research firm Cornerstone Macro.

"Clearly emerging-market financial markets are in turmoil for reasons that have little or nothing to do with the Fed likely tapering again."

That is not to say the decision will be a slam dunk.

Dallas Federal Reserve Bank President Richard Fisher, who is a voter on the central bank's policy-setting panel this year, has argued for a more aggressive withdrawal of purchases.

On the other end of the spectrum, Minneapolis Fed President Narayana Kocherlakota, also a voter, has argued for more, not less, stimulus, and that view could translate into a dissent.

Still, the Fed puts a high premium on consensus, and Kocherlakota may feel that presenting a united front on policy could be a stabilizing force for financial markets, Eaton Vance's Stein said.

"I don't think it's completely pro forma," he added, "but I do think the consensus of the committee is to taper, about in line with the last meeting."

President Barack Obama on Tuesday delivered the State of the Union address. The full text is below, but here are some highlights:

1, Obama called for raising the minimum wage to $10.10, in addition to issuing an executive order that does so for future federal contractors. "Give America a raise," he did.
2, He called the gender pay-gap in America "embarrassing," and said it's time to do away with workplace laws that belong in an episode of "Mad Men."
3, He forcefully declared that "climate change is a fact." "And when our children’s children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did," he said.
4, He announced plans to take issue as many as a dozen executive orders and actions, signaling his intention to work around Congress when and where he feels necessary.

Here is the full text, as prepared for delivery:

------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

Mr. Speaker, Mr. Vice President, Members of Congress, my fellow Americans:

Today in America, a teacher spent extra time with a student who needed it, and did her part to lift America’s graduation rate to its highest level in more than three decades.

An entrepreneur flipped on the lights in her tech startup, and did her part to add to the more than eight million new jobs our businesses have created over the past four years.

An autoworker fine-tuned some of the best, most fuel-efficient cars in the world, and did his part to help America wean itself off foreign oil.

A farmer prepared for the spring after the strongest five-year stretch of farm exports in our history. A rural doctor gave a young child the first prescription to treat asthma that his mother could afford. A man took the bus home from the graveyard shift, bone-tired but dreaming big dreams for his son. And in tight-knit communities across America, fathers and mothers will tuck in their kids, put an arm around their spouse, remember fallen comrades, and give thanks for being home from a war that, after twelve long years, is finally coming to an end.

Tonight, this chamber speaks with one voice to the people we represent: it is you, our citizens, who make the state of our union strong.

Here are the results of your efforts: The lowest unemployment rate in over five years. A rebounding housing market. A manufacturing sector that’s adding jobs for the first time since the 1990s. More oil produced at home than we buy from the rest of the world – the first time that’s happened in nearly twenty years. Our deficits – cut by more than half. And for the first time in over a decade, business leaders around the world have declared that China is no longer the world’s number one place to invest; America is.

That’s why I believe this can be a breakthrough year for America. After five years of grit and determined effort, the United States is better-positioned for the 21st century than any other nation on Earth.

The question for everyone in this chamber, running through every decision we make this year, is whether we are going to help or hinder this progress. For several years now, this town has been consumed by a rancorous argument over the proper size of the federal government. It’s an important debate – one that dates back to our very founding. But when that debate prevents us from carrying out even the most basic functions of our democracy – when our differences shut down government or threaten the full faith and credit of the United States – then we are not doing right by the American people.

As President, I’m committed to making Washington work better, and rebuilding the trust of the people who sent us here. I believe most of you are, too. Last month, thanks to the work of Democrats and Republicans, this Congress finally produced a budget that undoes some of last year’s severe cuts to priorities like education. Nobody got everything they wanted, and we can still do more to invest in this country’s future while bringing down our deficit in a balanced way. But the budget compromise should leave us freer to focus on creating new jobs, not creating new crises.

In the coming months, let’s see where else we can make progress together. Let’s make this a year of action. That’s what most Americans want – for all of us in this chamber to focus on their lives, their hopes, their aspirations. And what I believe unites the people of this nation, regardless of race or region or party, young or old, rich or poor, is the simple, profound belief in opportunity for all – the notion that if you work hard and take responsibility, you can get ahead.

Let’s face it: that belief has suffered some serious blows. Over more than three decades, even before the Great Recession hit, massive shifts in technology and global competition had eliminated a lot of good, middle-class jobs, and weakened the economic foundations that families depend on.

Today, after four years of economic growth, corporate profits and stock prices have rarely been higher, and those at the top have never done better. But average wages have barely budged. Inequality has deepened. Upward mobility has stalled. The cold, hard fact is that even in the midst of recovery, too many Americans are working more than ever just to get by – let alone get ahead. And too many still aren’t working at all.

Our job is to reverse these trends. It won’t happen right away, and we won’t agree on everything. But what I offer tonight is a set of concrete, practical proposals to speed up growth, strengthen the middle class, and build new ladders of opportunity into the middle class. Some require Congressional action, and I’m eager to work with all of you. But America does not stand still – and neither will I. So wherever and whenever I can take steps without legislation to expand opportunity for more American families, that’s what I’m going to do.

As usual, our First Lady sets a good example. Michelle’s Let’s Move partnership with schools, businesses, and local leaders has helped bring down childhood obesity rates for the first time in thirty years – an achievement that will improve lives and reduce health care costs for decades to come. The Joining Forces alliance that Michelle and Jill Biden launched has already encouraged employers to hire or train nearly 400,000 veterans and military spouses. Taking a page from that playbook, the White House just organized a College Opportunity Summit where already, 150 universities, businesses, and nonprofits have made concrete commitments to reduce inequality in access to higher education – and help every hardworking kid go to college and succeed when they get to campus. Across the country, we’re partnering with mayors, governors, and state legislatures on issues from homelessness to marriage equality.

The point is, there are millions of Americans outside Washington who are tired of stale political arguments, and are moving this country forward. They believe, and I believe, that here in America, our success should depend not on accident of birth, but the strength of our work ethic and the scope of our dreams. That’s what drew our forebears here. It’s how the daughter of a factory worker is CEO of America’s largest automaker; how the son of a barkeeper is Speaker of the House; how the son of a single mom can be President of the greatest nation on Earth.

Opportunity is who we are. And the defining project of our generation is to restore that promise.

We know where to start: the best measure of opportunity is access to a good job. With the economy picking up speed, companies say they intend to hire more people this year. And over half of big manufacturers say they’re thinking of insourcing jobs from abroad.

So let’s make that decision easier for more companies. Both Democrats and Republicans have argued that our tax code is riddled with wasteful, complicated loopholes that punish businesses investing here, and reward companies that keep profits abroad. Let’s flip that equation. Let’s work together to close those loopholes, end those incentives to ship jobs overseas, and lower tax rates for businesses that create jobs here at home.

Moreover, we can take the money we save with this transition to tax reform to create jobs rebuilding our roads, upgrading our ports, unclogging our commutes – because in today’s global economy, first-class jobs gravitate to first-class infrastructure. We’ll need Congress to protect more than three million jobs by finishing transportation and waterways bills this summer. But I will act on my own to slash bureaucracy and streamline the permitting process for key projects, so we can get more construction workers on the job as fast as possible.

We also have the chance, right now, to beat other countries in the race for the next wave of high-tech manufacturing jobs. My administration has launched two hubs for high-tech manufacturing in Raleigh and Youngstown, where we’ve connected businesses to research universities that can help America lead the world in advanced technologies. Tonight, I’m announcing we’ll launch six more this year. Bipartisan bills in both houses could double the number of these hubs and the jobs they create. So get those bills to my desk and put more Americans back to work.

Let’s do more to help the entrepreneurs and small business owners who create most new jobs in America. Over the past five years, my administration has made more loans to small business owners than any other. And when ninety-eight percent of our exporters are small businesses, new trade partnerships with Europe and the Asia-Pacific will help them create more jobs. We need to work together on tools like bipartisan trade promotion authority to protect our workers, protect our environment, and open new markets to new goods stamped “Made in the USA.” China and Europe aren’t standing on the sidelines. Neither should we.

We know that the nation that goes all-in on innovation today will own the global economy tomorrow. This is an edge America cannot surrender. Federally-funded research helped lead to the ideas and inventions behind Google and smartphones. That’s why Congress should undo the damage done by last year’s cuts to basic research so we can unleash the next great American discovery – whether it’s vaccines that stay ahead of drug-resistant bacteria, or paper-thin material that’s stronger than steel. And let’s pass a patent reform bill that allows our businesses to stay focused on innovation, not costly, needless litigation.

Now, one of the biggest factors in bringing more jobs back is our commitment to American energy. The all-of-the-above energy strategy I announced a few years ago is working, and today, America is closer to energy independence than we’ve been in decades.

One of the reasons why is natural gas – if extracted safely, it’s the bridge fuel that can power our economy with less of the carbon pollution that causes climate change. Businesses plan to invest almost $100 billion in new factories that use natural gas. I’ll cut red tape to help states get those factories built, and this Congress can help by putting people to work building fueling stations that shift more cars and trucks from foreign oil to American natural gas. My administration will keep working with the industry to sustain production and job growth while strengthening protection of our air, our water, and our communities. And while we’re at it, I’ll use my authority to protect more of our pristine federal lands for future generations.

It’s not just oil and natural gas production that’s booming; we’re becoming a global leader in solar, too. Every four minutes, another American home or business goes solar; every panel pounded into place by a worker whose job can’t be outsourced. Let’s continue that progress with a smarter tax policy that stops giving $4 billion a year to fossil fuel industries that don’t need it, so that we can invest more in fuels of the future that do.

And even as we’ve increased energy production, we’ve partnered with businesses, builders, and local communities to reduce the energy we consume. When we rescued our automakers, for example, we worked with them to set higher fuel efficiency standards for our cars. In the coming months, I’ll build on that success by setting new standards for our trucks, so we can keep driving down oil imports and what we pay at the pump.

Taken together, our energy policy is creating jobs and leading to a cleaner, safer planet. Over the past eight years, the United States has reduced our total carbon pollution more than any other nation on Earth. But we have to act with more urgency – because a changing climate is already harming western communities struggling with drought, and coastal cities dealing with floods. That’s why I directed my administration to work with states, utilities, and others to set new standards on the amount of carbon pollution our power plants are allowed to dump into the air. The shift to a cleaner energy economy won’t happen overnight, and it will require tough choices along the way. But the debate is settled. Climate change is a fact. And when our children’s children look us in the eye and ask if we did all we could to leave them a safer, more stable world, with new sources of energy, I want us to be able to say yes, we did.

Finally, if we are serious about economic growth, it is time to heed the call of business leaders, labor leaders, faith leaders, and law enforcement – and fix our broken immigration system. Republicans and Democrats in the Senate have acted. I know that members of both parties in the House want to do the same. Independent economists say immigration reform will grow our economy and shrink our deficits by almost $1 trillion in the next two decades. And for good reason: when people come here to fulfill their dreams – to study, invent, and contribute to our culture – they make our country a more attractive place for businesses to locate and create jobs for everyone. So let’s get immigration reform done this year.

The ideas I’ve outlined so far can speed up growth and create more jobs. But in this rapidly-changing economy, we have to make sure that every American has the skills to fill those jobs.

The good news is, we know how to do it. Two years ago, as the auto industry came roaring back, Andra Rush opened up a manufacturing firm in Detroit. She knew that Ford needed parts for the best-selling truck in America, and she knew how to make them. She just needed the workforce. So she dialed up what we call an American Job Center – places where folks can walk in to get the help or training they need to find a new job, or better job. She was flooded with new workers. And today, Detroit Manufacturing Systems has more than 700 employees.

What Andra and her employees experienced is how it should be for every employer – and every job seeker. So tonight, I’ve asked Vice President Biden to lead an across-the-board reform of America’s training programs to make sure they have one mission: train Americans with the skills employers need, and match them to good jobs that need to be filled right now. That means more on-the-job training, and more apprenticeships that set a young worker on an upward trajectory for life. It means connecting companies to community colleges that can help design training to fill their specific needs. And if Congress wants to help, you can concentrate funding on proven programs that connect more ready-to-work Americans with ready-to-be-filled jobs.

I’m also convinced we can help Americans return to the workforce faster by reforming unemployment insurance so that it’s more effective in today’s economy. But first, this Congress needs to restore the unemployment insurance you just let expire for 1.6 million people.

Let me tell you why.

Misty DeMars is a mother of two young boys. She’d been steadily employed since she was a teenager. She put herself through college. She’d never collected unemployment benefits. In May, she and her husband used their life savings to buy their first home. A week later, budget cuts claimed the job she loved. Last month, when their unemployment insurance was cut off, she sat down and wrote me a letter – the kind I get every day. “We are the face of the unemployment crisis,” she wrote. “I am not dependent on the government…Our country depends on people like us who build careers, contribute to society…care about our neighbors…I am confident that in time I will find a job…I will pay my taxes, and we will raise our children in their own home in the community we love. Please give us this chance.”

Congress, give these hardworking, responsible Americans that chance. They need our help, but more important, this country needs them in the game. That’s why I’ve been asking CEOs to give more long-term unemployed workers a fair shot at that new job and new chance to support their families; this week, many will come to the White House to make that commitment real. Tonight, I ask every business leader in America to join us and to do the same – because we are stronger when America fields a full team.

Of course, it’s not enough to train today’s workforce. We also have to prepare tomorrow’s workforce, by guaranteeing every child access to a world-class education.

Estiven Rodriguez couldn’t speak a word of English when he moved to New York City at age nine. But last month, thanks to the support of great teachers and an innovative tutoring program, he led a march of his classmates – through a crowd of cheering parents and neighbors – from their high school to the post office, where they mailed off their college applications. And this son of a factory worker just found out he’s going to college this fall.

Five years ago, we set out to change the odds for all our kids. We worked with lenders to reform student loans, and today, more young people are earning college degrees than ever before. Race to the Top, with the help of governors from both parties, has helped states raise expectations and performance. Teachers and principals in schools from Tennessee to Washington, D.C. are making big strides in preparing students with skills for the new economy – problem solving, critical thinking, science, technology, engineering, and math. Some of this change is hard. It requires everything from more challenging curriculums and more demanding parents to better support for teachers and new ways to measure how well our kids think, not how well they can fill in a bubble on a test. But it’s worth it – and it’s working.

The problem is we’re still not reaching enough kids, and we’re not reaching them in time. That has to change.

Research shows that one of the best investments we can make in a child’s life is high-quality early education. Last year, I asked this Congress to help states make high-quality pre-K available to every four year-old. As a parent as well as a President, I repeat that request tonight. But in the meantime, thirty states have raised pre-K funding on their own. They know we can’t wait. So just as we worked with states to reform our schools, this year, we’ll invest in new partnerships with states and communities across the country in a race to the top for our youngest children. And as Congress decides what it’s going to do, I’m going to pull together a coalition of elected officials, business leaders, and philanthropists willing to help more kids access the high-quality pre-K they need.

Last year, I also pledged to connect 99 percent of our students to high-speed broadband over the next four years. Tonight, I can announce that with the support of the FCC and companies like Apple, Microsoft, Sprint, and Verizon, we’ve got a down payment to start connecting more than 15,000 schools and twenty million students over the next two years, without adding a dime to the deficit.

We’re working to redesign high schools and partner them with colleges and employers that offer the real-world education and hands-on training that can lead directly to a job and career. We’re shaking up our system of higher education to give parents more information, and colleges more incentives to offer better value, so that no middle-class kid is priced out of a college education. We’re offering millions the opportunity to cap their monthly student loan payments to ten percent of their income, and I want to work with Congress to see how we can help even more Americans who feel trapped by student loan debt. And I’m reaching out to some of America’s leading foundations and corporations on a new initiative to help more young men of color facing tough odds stay on track and reach their full potential.

The bottom line is, Michelle and I want every child to have the same chance this country gave us. But we know our opportunity agenda won’t be complete – and too many young people entering the workforce today will see the American Dream as an empty promise – unless we do more to make sure our economy honors the dignity of work, and hard work pays off for every single American.

Today, women make up about half our workforce. But they still make 77 cents for every dollar a man earns. That is wrong, and in 2014, it’s an embarrassment. A woman deserves equal pay for equal work. She deserves to have a baby without sacrificing her job. A mother deserves a day off to care for a sick child or sick parent without running into hardship – and you know what, a father does, too. It’s time to do away with workplace policies that belong in a “Mad Men” episode. This year, let’s all come together – Congress, the White House, and businesses from Wall Street to Main Street – to give every woman the opportunity she deserves. Because I firmly believe when women succeed, America succeeds.

Now, women hold a majority of lower-wage jobs – but they’re not the only ones stifled by stagnant wages. Americans understand that some people will earn more than others, and we don’t resent those who, by virtue of their efforts, achieve incredible success. But Americans overwhelmingly agree that no one who works full time should ever have to raise a family in poverty.

In the year since I asked this Congress to raise the minimum wage, five states have passed laws to raise theirs. Many businesses have done it on their own. Nick Chute is here tonight with his boss, John Soranno. John’s an owner of Punch Pizza in Minneapolis, and Nick helps make the dough. Only now he makes more of it: John just gave his employees a raise, to ten bucks an hour – a decision that eased their financial stress and boosted their morale.

Tonight, I ask more of America’s business leaders to follow John’s lead and do what you can to raise your employees’ wages. To every mayor, governor, and state legislator in America, I say, you don’t have to wait for Congress to act; Americans will support you if you take this on. And as a chief executive, I intend to lead by example. Profitable corporations like Costco see higher wages as the smart way to boost productivity and reduce turnover. We should too. In the coming weeks, I will issue an Executive Order requiring federal contractors to pay their federally-funded employees a fair wage of at least $10.10 an hour – because if you cook our troops’ meals or wash their dishes, you shouldn’t have to live in poverty.

Of course, to reach millions more, Congress needs to get on board. Today, the federal minimum wage is worth about twenty percent less than it was when Ronald Reagan first stood here. Tom Harkin and George Miller have a bill to fix that by lifting the minimum wage to $10.10. This will help families. It will give businesses customers with more money to spend. It doesn’t involve any new bureaucratic program. So join the rest of the country. Say yes. Give America a raise.

There are other steps we can take to help families make ends meet, and few are more effective at reducing inequality and helping families pull themselves up through hard work than the Earned Income Tax Credit. Right now, it helps about half of all parents at some point. But I agree with Republicans like Senator Rubio that it doesn’t do enough for single workers who don’t have kids. So let’s work together to strengthen the credit, reward work, and help more Americans get ahead.

Let’s do more to help Americans save for retirement. Today, most workers don’t have a pension. A Social Security check often isn’t enough on its own. And while the stock market has doubled over the last five years, that doesn’t help folks who don’t have 401ks. That’s why, tomorrow, I will direct the Treasury to create a new way for working Americans to start their own retirement savings: MyRA. It’s a new savings bond that encourages folks to build a nest egg. MyRA guarantees a decent return with no risk of losing what you put in. And if this Congress wants to help, work with me to fix an upside-down tax code that gives big tax breaks to help the wealthy save, but does little to nothing for middle-class Americans. Offer every American access to an automatic IRA on the job, so they can save at work just like everyone in this chamber can. And since the most important investment many families make is their home, send me legislation that protects taxpayers from footing the bill for a housing crisis ever again, and keeps the dream of homeownership alive for future generations of Americans.

One last point on financial security. For decades, few things exposed hard-working families to economic hardship more than a broken health care system. And in case you haven’t heard, we’re in the process of fixing that.

A pre-existing condition used to mean that someone like Amanda Shelley, a physician assistant and single mom from Arizona, couldn’t get health insurance. But on January 1st, she got covered. On January 3rd, she felt a sharp pain. On January 6th, she had emergency surgery. Just one week earlier, Amanda said, that surgery would’ve meant bankruptcy.

That’s what health insurance reform is all about – the peace of mind that if misfortune strikes, you don’t have to lose everything.

Already, because of the Affordable Care Act, more than three million Americans under age 26 have gained coverage under their parents’ plans.

More than nine million Americans have signed up for private health insurance or Medicaid coverage.

And here’s another number: zero. Because of this law, no American can ever again be dropped or denied coverage for a preexisting condition like asthma, back pain, or cancer. No woman can ever be charged more just because she’s a woman. And we did all this while adding years to Medicare’s finances, keeping Medicare premiums flat, and lowering prescription costs for millions of seniors.

Now, I don’t expect to convince my Republican friends on the merits of this law. But I know that the American people aren’t interested in refighting old battles. So again, if you have specific plans to cut costs, cover more people, and increase choice – tell America what you’d do differently. Let’s see if the numbers add up. But let’s not have another forty-something votes to repeal a law that’s already helping millions of Americans like Amanda. The first forty were plenty. We got it. We all owe it to the American people to say what we’re for, not just what we’re against.

And if you want to know the real impact this law is having, just talk to Governor Steve Beshear of Kentucky, who’s here tonight. Kentucky’s not the most liberal part of the country, but he’s like a man possessed when it comes to covering his commonwealth’s families. “They are our friends and neighbors,” he said. “They are people we shop and go to church with…farmers out on the tractors…grocery clerks…they are people who go to work every morning praying they don’t get sick. No one deserves to live that way.”

Steve’s right. That’s why, tonight, I ask every American who knows someone without health insurance to help them get covered by March 31st. Moms, get on your kids to sign up. Kids, call your mom and walk her through the application. It will give her some peace of mind – plus, she’ll appreciate hearing from you.

After all, that’s the spirit that has always moved this nation forward. It’s the spirit of citizenship – the recognition that through hard work and responsibility, we can pursue our individual dreams, but still come together as one American family to make sure the next generation can pursue its dreams as well.

Citizenship means standing up for everyone’s right to vote. Last year, part of the Voting Rights Act was weakened. But conservative Republicans and liberal Democrats are working together to strengthen it; and the bipartisan commission I appointed last year has offered reforms so that no one has to wait more than a half hour to vote. Let’s support these efforts. It should be the power of our vote, not the size of our bank account, that drives our democracy.

Citizenship means standing up for the lives that gun violence steals from us each day. I have seen the courage of parents, students, pastors, and police officers all over this country who say “we are not afraid,” and I intend to keep trying, with or without Congress, to help stop more tragedies from visiting innocent Americans in our movie theaters, shopping malls, or schools like Sandy Hook.

Citizenship demands a sense of common cause; participation in the hard work of self-government; an obligation to serve to our communities. And I know this chamber agrees that few Americans give more to their country than our diplomats and the men and women of the United States Armed Forces.

Tonight, because of the extraordinary troops and civilians who risk and lay down their lives to keep us free, the United States is more secure. When I took office, nearly 180,000 Americans were serving in Iraq and Afghanistan. Today, all our troops are out of Iraq. More than 60,000 of our troops have already come home from Afghanistan. With Afghan forces now in the lead for their own security, our troops have moved to a support role. Together with our allies, we will complete our mission there by the end of this year, and America’s longest war will finally be over.

After 2014, we will support a unified Afghanistan as it takes responsibility for its own future. If the Afghan government signs a security agreement that we have negotiated, a small force of Americans could remain in Afghanistan with NATO allies to carry out two narrow missions: training and assisting Afghan forces, and counterterrorism operations to pursue any remnants of al Qaeda. For while our relationship with Afghanistan will change, one thing will not: our resolve that terrorists do not launch attacks against our country

The fact is, that danger remains. While we have put al Qaeda’s core leadership on a path to defeat, the threat has evolved, as al Qaeda affiliates and other extremists take root in different parts of the world. In Yemen, Somalia, Iraq, and Mali, we have to keep working with partners to disrupt and disable these networks. In Syria, we’ll support the opposition that rejects the agenda of terrorist networks. Here at home, we’ll keep strengthening our defenses, and combat new threats like cyberattacks. And as we reform our defense budget, we have to keep faith with our men and women in uniform, and invest in the capabilities they need to succeed in future missions.

We have to remain vigilant. But I strongly believe our leadership and our security cannot depend on our military alone. As Commander-in-Chief, I have used force when needed to protect the American people, and I will never hesitate to do so as long as I hold this office. But I will not send our troops into harm’s way unless it’s truly necessary; nor will I allow our sons and daughters to be mired in open-ended conflicts. We must fight the battles that need to be fought, not those that terrorists prefer from us – large-scale deployments that drain our strength and may ultimately feed extremism.

So, even as we aggressively pursue terrorist networks – through more targeted efforts and by building the capacity of our foreign partners – America must move off a permanent war footing. That’s why I’ve imposed prudent limits on the use of drones – for we will not be safer if people abroad believe we strike within their countries without regard for the consequence. That’s why, working with this Congress, I will reform our surveillance programs – because the vital work of our intelligence community depends on public confidence, here and abroad, that the privacy of ordinary people is not being violated. And with the Afghan war ending, this needs to be the year Congress lifts the remaining restrictions on detainee transfers and we close the prison at Guantanamo Bay – because we counter terrorism not just through intelligence and military action, but by remaining true to our Constitutional ideals, and setting an example for the rest of the world

You see, in a world of complex threats, our security and leadership depends on all elements of our power – including strong and principled diplomacy. American diplomacy has rallied more than fifty countries to prevent nuclear materials from falling into the wrong hands, and allowed us to reduce our own reliance on Cold War stockpiles. American diplomacy, backed by the threat of force, is why Syria’s chemical weapons are being eliminated, and we will continue to work with the international community to usher in the future the Syrian people deserve – a future free of dictatorship, terror and fear. As we speak, American diplomacy is supporting Israelis and Palestinians as they engage in difficult but necessary talks to end the conflict there; to achieve dignity and an independent state for Palestinians, and lasting peace and security for the State of Israel – a Jewish state that knows America will always be at their side.

And it is American diplomacy, backed by pressure, that has halted the progress of Iran’s nuclear program – and rolled parts of that program back – for the very first time in a decade. As we gather here tonight, Iran has begun to eliminate its stockpile of higher levels of enriched uranium. It is not installing advanced centrifuges. Unprecedented inspections help the world verify, every day, that Iran is not building a bomb. And with our allies and partners, we’re engaged in negotiations to see if we can peacefully achieve a goal we all share: preventing Iran from obtaining a nuclear weapon.

These negotiations will be difficult. They may not succeed. We are clear-eyed about Iran’s support for terrorist organizations like Hezbollah, which threaten our allies; and the mistrust between our nations cannot be wished away. But these negotiations do not rely on trust; any long-term deal we agree to must be based on verifiable action that convinces us and the international community that Iran is not building a nuclear bomb. If John F. Kennedy and Ronald Reagan could negotiate with the Soviet Union, then surely a strong and confident America can negotiate with less powerful adversaries today.

The sanctions that we put in place helped make this opportunity possible. But let me be clear: if this Congress sends me a new sanctions bill now that threatens to derail these talks, I will veto it. For the sake of our national security, we must give diplomacy a chance to succeed. If Iran’s leaders do not seize this opportunity, then I will be the first to call for more sanctions, and stand ready to exercise all options to make sure Iran does not build a nuclear weapon. But if Iran’s leaders do seize the chance, then Iran could take an important step to rejoin the community of nations, and we will have resolved one of the leading security challenges of our time without the risks of war.

Finally, let’s remember that our leadership is defined not just by our defense against threats, but by the enormous opportunities to do good and promote understanding around the globe – to forge greater cooperation, to expand new markets, to free people from fear and want. And no one is better positioned to take advantage of those opportunities than America.

Our alliance with Europe remains the strongest the world has ever known. From Tunisia to Burma, we’re supporting those who are willing to do the hard work of building democracy. In Ukraine, we stand for the principle that all people have the right to express themselves freely and peacefully, and have a say in their country’s future. Across Africa, we’re bringing together businesses and governments to double access to electricity and help end extreme poverty. In the Americas, we are building new ties of commerce, but we’re also expanding cultural and educational exchanges among young people. And we will continue to focus on the Asia-Pacific, where we support our allies, shape a future of greater security and prosperity, and extend a hand to those devastated by disaster – as we did in the Philippines, when our Marines and civilians rushed to aid those battered by a typhoon, and were greeted with words like, “We will never forget your kindness” and “God bless America!”

We do these things because they help promote our long-term security. And we do them because we believe in the inherent dignity and equality of every human being, regardless of race or religion, creed or sexual orientation. And next week, the world will see one expression of that commitment – when Team USA marches the red, white, and blue into the Olympic Stadium – and brings home the gold.

My fellow Americans, no other country in the world does what we do. On every issue, the world turns to us, not simply because of the size of our economy or our military might – but because of the ideals we stand for, and the burdens we bear to advance them.

No one knows this better than those who serve in uniform. As this time of war draws to a close, a new generation of heroes returns to civilian life. We’ll keep slashing that backlog so our veterans receive the benefits they’ve earned, and our wounded warriors receive the health care – including the mental health care – that they need. We’ll keep working to help all our veterans translate their skills and leadership into jobs here at home. And we all continue to join forces to honor and support our remarkable military families.

Let me tell you about one of those families I’ve come to know.

I first met Cory Remsburg, a proud Army Ranger, at Omaha Beach on the 65th anniversary of D-Day. Along with some of his fellow Rangers, he walked me through the program – a strong, impressive young man, with an easy manner, sharp as a tack. We joked around, and took pictures, and I told him to stay in touch.

A few months later, on his tenth deployment, Cory was nearly killed by a massive roadside bomb in Afghanistan. His comrades found him in a canal, face down, underwater, shrapnel in his brain.

For months, he lay in a coma. The next time I met him, in the hospital, he couldn’t speak; he could barely move. Over the years, he’s endured dozens of surgeries and procedures, and hours of grueling rehab every day.

Even now, Cory is still blind in one eye. He still struggles on his left side. But slowly, steadily, with the support of caregivers like his dad Craig, and the community around him, Cory has grown stronger. Day by day, he’s learned to speak again and stand again and walk again – and he’s working toward the day when he can serve his country again.

“My recovery has not been easy,” he says. “Nothing in life that’s worth anything is easy.”

Cory is here tonight. And like the Army he loves, like the America he serves, Sergeant First Class Cory Remsburg never gives up, and he does not quit.

My fellow Americans, men and women like Cory remind us that America has never come easy. Our freedom, our democracy, has never been easy. Sometimes we stumble; we make mistakes; we get frustrated or discouraged. But for more than two hundred years, we have put those things aside and placed our collective shoulder to the wheel of progress – to create and build and expand the possibilities of individual achievement; to free other nations from tyranny and fear; to promote justice, and fairness, and equality under the law, so that the words set to paper by our founders are made real for every citizen. The America we want for our kids – a rising America where honest work is plentiful and communities are strong; where prosperity is widely shared and opportunity for all lets us go as far as our dreams and toil will take us – none of it is easy. But if we work together; if we summon what is best in us, with our feet planted firmly in today but our eyes cast towards tomorrow – I know it’s within our reach.

Believe it.

God bless you, and God bless the United States of America.