Datagate Research System

Rebased Economy In Recession

November 8, 2016

By: Faith Nkirote

Let’s go back in time, two years to be precise the Nigerian economy was rebased in April 2014 after a 24 year hiatus. The GDP was rebased from a 1990 base year to a 2010 one. This rebasing placed the value of the economy at USD 509.97 billion from USD 270 billion a whooping 90% increase.

This made it the largest economy in Africa toppling South Africa which had been for a longtime stood as the African Powerhouse. Furthermore, this very increase propelled it to capture 26th position globally.

So you may ask, why rebase? What’s GDP? Why the sudden growth in the economy yet the situation on the ground remains the same? All of these shall be answered in this very piece.

GDP is the Gross Domestic Product which can be defined in layman’s terms as the final value of all officially recognized final goods and services produced within a country over a given period of time usually a year. However, it can be assessed quarterly.

GDP is therefore computed in three ways. The Income approach, the Output approach as well as the Expenditure Approach.

The Income approach places emphasis on incomes generated from engaging factors of production namely labour, capital, entrepreneurship and land. Incomes generated from this engagement are wages, interest, profits and rent respectively. A summation of these rewards informs this approach

Expenditure Approach is the most commonly used approach the world over and it is computed as a summation of consumption, investments, government expenditure and net exports.

Finally, the output approach sums the value of the sales of goods in an economy and adjusting the purchase of the intermediate goods to produce the goods sold.

Nations need to rebase their economies every five years according to the United Nations Statistical Committee. This is in order to capture true picture of sectors that may have otherwise been ignored and have grown in leaps and bounds. It is important to

Small Japan firms dying out as aging owners struggle to find successors
By Datagate Research System

Japan's small firms, many of which are "mom-and-pop" operations, are dying out as their aging owners struggle to find successors, in another sign that the fast-ageing population is taking its toll on the world's third-largest economy.
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has targeted more business start-ups as a crucial part of regenerating activity, but the impact has been minimal so far, with the number of small firms that are closing their doors at a near record high.
Takayasu Watanabe, 72, has closed a chalk-making business in Nagoya, central Japan, that his family had operated for more than 80 years. He sold technology, equipment and trademark rights to a South Korean company last year.
"My physical condition has been deteriorating. I was unable to find a successor and business performance was not good," Watanabe said, adding that none of his three daughters wanted to take over the firm.
The Bank of Japan's tankan business survey showed on Monday that small manufacturers remained pessimistic in September as the economy continues to flounder more than three years after the prime minister pledged to reboot it with reflationary policies which markets have dubbed "Abenomics".
Shutdowns among small firms that serve as subcontractors for big firms and employ seven out of 10 workers could pose the risk of a prolonged low growth, some analysts say.
The rate of startups among manufacturers has hovered well below shutdowns - at 3.4 percent versus 5.5 percent in 2014.
"Aging of business owners and difficulty in securing successors are becoming a serious problem for Japanese firms," said Yumi Tanaka of Teikoku Databank, a private corporate credit research firm.
"From cars to electronics, more and more companies may start seeking overseas subcontractors, which could accelerate industrial hollowing out and hamper technology transfer."

Africa Is A Country! Finally, We Could Become The United States of Africa

July 31, 2016 • 575 Likes • 65 Comments

Africans are typically unforgiving of people who refer to Africa as a country. Anyone who cannot see that we are a continent of 55 distinct, independent and sovereign countries -- each with its own president, army and national flag -- is clearly ignorant, right?

In truth, there are no ‘Africans’? But there are Nigerians, Kenyans, Ethiopians, Zambians, Congolese, Moroccans and South Africans, among several others.

When outsiders refer to Africa as a country, there is a subconscious revolt and innate impulse to make it clear that we are not just the world’s largest collection of dark-skinned folk. In my case, there is always a strong patriotic urge to remind you that I’m Nigerian.

But wait a minute.

Could referring to Africa as a country just be an ignorant slip, or a telling prophecy?

Is Africa, as a “country”, a much stronger proposition than Africa as a “continent” – which is actually just a mere geographical expression?

After all, before the colonial powers of Europe cut the continent into slices and dominions during the Scramble for Africa, African society was organized along tribes and empires, which traded freely among themselves, unlike the destructive restrictions we face presently – more on that later.

In my opinion, Africa’s internal borders are the key bane to its progress. This pervasive sense of ‘separateness’ or ‘apartheid’ that makes each African country feel distinct and disengaged from the other is actually a divisive legacy of a colonial past that significantly undermines the potentials of our great ‘continent’.

I must admit; I don’t have all the answers. I’m not sure if we should tear down our internal ‘international’ borders and proclaim ourselves the United States of Africa. Or maybe we should model ourselves against the European Union – a politico-economic union of member states.

But I’m absolutely certain we need to do so

UK Steel Industry Under Threat.
15th of April, 2016.

Over the past few months, one part of the UK economy, the steel industry, has been grabbing the news headlines, but for all the wrong reasons.
The announcement by India's Tata Steel that it plans to sell its UK
steel business, putting thousands of jobs at risk, is the latest blow to an industry which has seen a succession of job cuts.
At the start of this year, Tata, which currently employs 15,000 in the UK, announced plans for 1,050 job cuts, on top of the 1,200 it axed in October 2015 and the 720 it cut last summer.
Other firms have played their part in what amounts to an industry-wide cull. In October, Thailand's SSI announced it was closing down its Redcar works with the loss of 2,200 jobs, then parts of Caparo Industries' steel operations went into administration putting 1,700 jobs potentially at risk.
The steel industry says it has been hit by a combination of factors: high UK energy prices, the extra cost of climate change policies, and competition from China - there have been allegations that Chinese steel is being sold in the UK at unrealistically low prices.
So what's the truth of it all - just why are significant parts of Britain's steel industry in such trouble?
What's behind the current crisis?
Demand for steel worldwide has not returned to the levels seen before the financial crisis. As many countries, and particularly China, are seeing weak growth, global demand will remain sluggish - falling 1.7% in 2015 and up by just 0.7% this year.
Global steel prices have fallen sharply. Meanwhile, China's own economic slowdown has led its producers to look for export markets as their home demand stalls.
As a result, UK imports of Chinese steel have increased dramatically. In 2014 the UK imported 687,000 tonnes of steel from China, up from 303,000 tonnes in 2013.
It is true that the UK's steel imports from the rest of the EU are much higher than this, they were 4.7 million tonnes in 2014, but crucially China is selling its steel at much lower prices.
Steel imports into the UK from the rest of the EU cost on average 897 euros a tonne in 2014, while Chinese steel imports were just 583 euros a tonne, says the EU's statistics agency, Eurostat. This has led to accusations that China is selling at unfairly low prices.
High UK energy costs for energy-intensive businesses like steel production are also a factor, says the industry, added to by the extra cost of climate change policies. And government policies to compensate producers for these extra costs have been too slow, says the industry body UK Steel.
EU rules also restrict how much support governments can give to particular industries. Member states may not use public funds to rescue failing steelmakers. However, EU countries are allowed to boost steel firms' global competitiveness - for instance by funding research and development or helping with high energy bills.
How many steel jobs could go?
Almost 18,000 people are employed in the steel sector, and some experts say that up to one in four of these jobs could be at risk over the next few years.
The confirmation earlier this year by Tata of 1,050 job losses comes on top of the 1,200 jobs it axed last October and the 720 jobs it cut in July .
Also in October, the country's second-largest steel producer, Thai firm SSI, said its Redcar works on Teesside, would go into liquidation with the loss of 2,200 jobs.
At the same time, Caparo Industries went into partial administration, putting 1,700 jobs at potential risk.
Can we really just blame China?
The industry blames cheap Chinese imports for a collapse in steel prices.
It is certainly true that China's dramatic economic growth since liberalisation started in 1979 has been one of the key drivers in the global steel market.
It is now the world's biggest steel producer, accounting for around 822 million tonnes a year. The UK, which produces almost 12 million tonnes a year, is a minor player in terms of absolute output, but has sought to specialise in high-quality, high-value steel products.
With China's market slowing, their producers have been looking for export markets, such as the EU.
This has led to accusations of unfair competition, that Chinese producers are "dumping" steel products on overseas markets - that is not just selling them cheaply, taking advantage of their lower production costs, but actually selling them at a loss.
In 2015, the EU imposed anti-dumping duties for six months on some steel imports from China and Taiwan. The EU and China have already clashed over the alleged dumping of products such as wine, solar panel and steel pipes.
How important is steel for Britain?
Steel itself is vital for just about everything we use. Whether it is buildings, clothes, chemical, cars, lamps or drinks cans - all depend on it at some point.
The industry has seen significant automation and computerisation and is not as labour-intensive as it used to be.
About 18,000 people are directly employed in the steel industry. With a total UK workforce of 31 million this is just one in 1,700 jobs.
However, if the industry was to shrink further there will be an impact in other allied sectors - steel processors, distributors, scrap metal dealers, metal traders and other metal product manufacturers.
Many argue that this is not just a crisis for the steel sector, but one affecting UK manufacturing in general, which accounts for roughly 10% of UK economic output.
So what can the UK do?
The industry is clear what it needs: lower business rates, a relaxation of carbon emissions targets for heavy manufacturers, more compensation for high energy prices, and a commitment that British steel is used in major construction projects.
The government held a steel summit in Rotherham last October to discuss what could be done.
It says it has already taken "clear action" to help the industry, "through cutting energy costs, taking action on imports, government procurement and EU emissions regulations, meeting key steel industry asks."
But UK Steel says it still needs to do more.
"We need much further action taking place to tackle the imports, the flood of Chinese steel into the UK and the European economy. We need to see government and the European Commission tackling that head on and quickly," says Gareth Stace, director of UK Steel.
"Ministers can also do more by reforming business rates to exclude some of the penalties steel companies and others face if they invest in plant and machinery," says Terry Scuoler, chief executive of EEF, the manufacturers' organisation.
"Alongside this, the UK has one of the highest electricity costs for the energy intensive industries in Europe because of hindering domestic policy. We need to see a level playing field with our European competitors to ensure a positive future for the steel sector," he says.
Does the steel industry have a future in the UK?
Business Minister, Anna Soubry, said on Radio 4's Today programme that the government was determined to ensure that Port Talbot continues to make steel.
Despite this, some gloomily predict that steel production itself - as opposed to specialised rolling and milling of already-manufactured steel - faces a bleak future in the UK, and that the number employed in the industry will continue to fall, possibly to as low as 13,000 within a few years.
The world faces a huge oversupply of steel - currently only two-thirds of the steel being produced is actually being used.
Tata itself says that "trading conditions in the UK and Europe have rapidly deteriorated" recently, due to the global oversupply of steel, a "significant" increase exports into Europe, high manufacturing costs, continued weakness in UK demand for steel and a volatile currency.
Energy intensive businesses, like steelmakers, also face higher electricity prices in the UK than they do in many of the Britain's European neighbours - and the industry has been calling for urgent action on this.

Streaming becomes top money maker for music business in U.S. for the first time

MAR 24, 2016

NEW YORK – Streaming has become the top money-maker for the U.S. recorded music business for the first time, but it has struggled to offset falling CD sales and downloads, industry data showed Tuesday.
Releasing its 2015 figures, the Recording Industry Association of America said that streaming grossed more than $2 billion, led by rising subscriptions for services such as Spotify.
Amid the emergence last year of new players such as Apple Music and Tidal, revenue from paid subscriptions to streaming services — which offer unlimited, on-demand listening — grew by more than 50 percent.
Streaming accounted for 34.3 percent of overall revenue in the world’s largest music market, narrowly edging out permanent digital downloads on platforms such as iTunes.
But despite streaming’s rapid growth, the industry’s overall revenue last year went up a mere 0.9 percent to $7 billion.
CD sales and digital downloads slipped, with revenue from albums on CD, long a staple of the industry, down 17 percent in revenue.
The recording association, while praising the new source of growth from streaming, said that the revenue setup from the sector was not keeping pace.
The industry group, without explicitly condemning companies, clearly was pointing the finger at YouTube and the free tier of Spotify, which make money through advertising.
“We, and so many of our music community brethren, feel that some technology giants have been enriching themselves at the expense of the people who actually create the music,” association President Cary Sherman said in an essay on the annual figures.
“We call this the ‘value grab’ — because some companies take advantage of outdated, market-distorting government rules and regulations to either pay below fair-market rates, or avoid paying for that music altogether,” he said, also renewing longtime criticism of U.S. rules under which radio stations do not need to pay artists.
One major bright spot was vinyl, whose sales went up by nearly a third amid a resurgence of interest by hard-core collectors, reaching a level last seen in 1988 before the rise of CDs.
While vinyl remains relatively niche, the format has been picking up and was worth more than a quarter of the value of CD albums last year.
The $416 million generated by vinyl accounted for more than all the revenue brought in by billions of advertisement-supported free streams.
The music industry has not yet released global figures for 2015.
Streaming has risen at different paces, making rapid strides in Nordic countries, while Japan and Germany — the world’s second- and third-largest music markets — remain strongholds of CDs.

Trading giant Mitsubishi projects first net loss since founding

MAR 24, 2016

Mitsubishi Corp., Japan’s largest trading house, expects a net loss of ¥150 billion in fiscal 2015 — its first loss since it was established in 1954 and a setback from the ¥400.5 billion in net income logged the previous year.
The Tokyo-based trader also expects to book an impairment charge of ¥430 billion on its commodities business for the 12 months ending March 31, according to a regulatory statement.
Sogo shosha, as general trading houses like Mitsubishi, Mitsui & Co. and Sumitomo Corp. are called, invested in metals and energy only to see prices fall, resulting in writedowns that squeezed profits.
In February, Mitsubishi projected a ¥300 billion group net profit for the current business year. Mitsubishi may become the latest Japanese trading house struggling under the rout in commodities markets amid growth concerns about emerging economies. Trading houses rely heavily on resource-related businesses for profits.
Mi earliertsui said Wednesday it will likely fall into the red for the fiscal year for the first time since its establishment in 1947. It expects a ¥70 billion group net loss due to impairment losses on overseas projects dealing with copper, coal, oil and LNG, rathern earlier projected profit of ¥190 billion. In fiscal 2014, Mitsui posted a group net profit of ¥306.49 billion.

INCJ said to argue its ¥1 trillion bid for Sharp tops Foxconn’s

FEB 9, 2016

Innovation Network Corp. of Japan is making the case to Sharp Corp. that its rescue proposal for the electronics maker is worth more than an offer from Taiwan’s Hon Hai Precision Industry Co., a sign the government fund is determined to keep fighting for victory in the takeover battle.

The state-backed fund proposed a package of cash, asset sales and support from lenders that it says is worth ¥1 trillion, according to documents INCJ presented to Sharp and obtained by Bloomberg News. Hon Hai, also known as Foxconn Technology Group, is offering about ¥660 billion for the company, a person familiar with the matter has said.

INCJ’s proposal included a ¥300 billion cash infusion for Sharp as well as ¥350 billion in support from its lenders, according to the documents. The fund also proposed raising ¥150 billion from its stake in Sakai Display Products Corp. and ¥200 billion in financing.

“Money matters, but what’s important is the company’s long-term viability,” said Yasuaki Kogure, chief investment officer at SBI Asset Management Co. “Beyond the money amounts, the questions that need answering are about Sharp’s restructuring.”
Foxconn Chairman Terry Gou emerged from a nine-hour meeting with Sharp on Friday and said his company has become the preferred bidder, with a final agreement expected by the end of the month. About an hour later, the Osaka-based company contradicted his comments, saying that INCJ’s bid is still in play.
INCJ has not given up on the proposal and is not planning to raise its offer, the fund’s Chief Executive Officer Toshiyuki Shiga said in an interview with the Nikkei Shimbun newspaper on Monday. INCJ’s focus on restructuring rather than revival makes its plan fundamentally different from Foxconn’s, Shiga said in the report.
“There needs to be a board decision to give a preferred negotiating partner status,” Atsushi Yoshida, a spokesman for Sharp, said following Gou’s comment on Friday. “The board meeting yesterday didn’t yield such status and there was no meeting today. We plan to continue our talks with INCJ.”

Toyodo Uemura, a spokesman for Sharp, declined to comment, and negotiations with firm are continuing, a spokesman at INCJ said. Foxconn also declined to comment.

The lender support in INCJ’s proposal would include a ¥110 billion debt-for-equity swap, the documents show. Mitsubishi UFJ Financial Group Inc. and Mizuho Financial Group Inc. would also cancel ¥225 billion of preferred stock they hold in Sharp, shares Foxconn is offering to buy, according to INCJ’s plan.
INCJ proposed merging Sharp’s liquid crystal display operations with those of Japan Display Inc., where the fund is a major shareholder, according to the documents. The fund’s offer will reflect fair value of Sharp’s stock, preventing possible shareholder lawsuits and also involve bringing in new management, according to the documents.

Gou has pushed hard for a deal even as it looked unlikely he would win. Sharp had been inclined to take the bid from INCJ, people familiar with the matter said last month. But then Gou raised his bid from ¥600 billion to about ¥660 billion and flew to Japan to make a personal appeal to Sharp’s board, its banks and government officials, a person familiar with the matter has said.
Foxconn’s negotiations with Sharp are 90 percent complete, Gou told reporters on Friday outside Sharp headquarters. There will be no breakup of the company, he said, echoing comments from Sharp Chief Executive Officer Kozo Takahashi a day prior.
“The remaining 10 percent are legal matters and are not a big deal,” Gou said.

NORTH KOREA NUCLEAR WEAPON
FEB 9, 2016
North Korea’s rocket launch repeated earlier success rather than breaking new ground, using a nearly identical design from a 2012 launch, experts said, adding the reclusive country probably remained years from building a long-range nuclear missile.
The rocket was based on engines taken from its massive stockpile of midrange missiles based on Soviet-era technology and electrical parts too rudimentary to be targeted by a global missile control regime, the experts said.
South Korea and the United States say Sunday’s launch was a long-range missile test that violated U.N. Security Council resolutions barring the North from using ballistic missile technology. It followed North Korea’s Jan. 6 test of a nuclear device, also in breach of Security Council resolutions.
The three-stage launch vehicle, named Kwangmyongsong, separated its boosters successfully and put an object, which the North says is an Earth-observation satellite, into orbit, South Korea said Tuesday.
A signal from the satellite had yet to be detected, Seoul said. The object North Korea launched in 2012 never sent a detectable signal.
“I suspect the aim of the launch was to repeat the success, which itself provides considerable engineering knowledge,” said Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the London-based International Institute for Strategic Studies.
The South Korean Navy recovered parts of the first-stage booster but failed to retrieve a significant section as it did in 2012 because the stage self-destructed after liftoff, probably with explosives detonated by a timer, the South’s military said.
South Korea said the launch resembled the one in 2012. The shape of the rockets was similar, as were the locations where the first and second stages splashed into the sea, it said.
The U.N. Security Council has imposed layers of sanctions against the North for its nuclear tests and long-range rocket launches going back to 2006, banning arms trade and money flow that can fund its arms program.
But the North has managed to circumvent those measures in pursuing a rocket program, widely suspected to be aimed at building an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that could threaten the continental United States, and its fourth nuclear test last month.
“Sanctions raise the cost and impact reliability, but a determined country can access the needed items if it is a priority acquisition,” Elleman said.
After the 2012 launch, South Korea retrieved a number of parts associated with the first-stage booster, including one of the steering engines, a nearly intact section of the fuel tank that contained propellant, wiring and pressure sensors.
Some of those components were imported, “ranging from cannibalized Soviet Scud parts to equipment produced in the United States, Europe and Asia,” said Jeffrey Lewis, a nuclear expert at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies.
“Most of the items are available commercially, off-the-shelf and are not controlled. The underlying components are less important than North Korea’s ability to integrate them in a functioning rocket program,” he said.
If the Kwangmyongsong was powered by the same system as the Unha-3 launched in 2012, it used a cluster of Rodong missile engines with a thrust of about 27 tons each encased in an aluminium-magnesium alloy body, welded unevenly by hand.
North Korea is believed to have more than 200 medium-range Rodong missiles with a range of 1,300 km (800 miles), developed from Scud missiles with Soviet technology.
South Korea said it believes the North’s rockets can fly more than 10,000 km (6,200 miles), putting the mainland United States in range.
The boosters likely performed similarly in terms of thrust and burn time to the Unha-3, indicating the North again launched a vehicle that would be optimized to launch a satellite, not a ballistic missile, which would require higher thrust.
“Increasing thrust is a delicate issue, and depending on how much, you quickly have to completely redevelop the whole engine,” German aerospace engineer Markus Schiller said.
While sanctions have not stopped the North’s rocket development, they likely limit what it can make or secure in large quantities of material, equipment and fuel that are needed to quickly make advances.
Some experts believe the North is a decade or more away from being able apply what it learns from its space launch vehicles to building an ICBM capable of threatening the U.S. West Coast. Such a missile would have to be vastly bigger than the last two rockets launched.
The North has also demonstrated no evidence of significant work in building and testing a nuclear warhead rugged and stable enough to withstand the stress of re-entry to atmosphere and detonate as intended when it reaches its target.
Most experts believe it has also yet to show, after four nuclear tests over 10 years, all with relatively small yields, that it has successfully weaponized a nuclear device, let alone miniaturized one to fit on a missile.
Schiller said if the North were to have made real progress, there is no reason not to demonstrate an advanced rocket rather than turning again to what is probably “their old workhorse.”
“I assume that they are doing the best they can with the Unha, showing a very slow but continuous progress toward a small satellite launch capability,” he said. “Turning this program into a real weapon that is deployed in numbers and could hit cities at the push of a button will take decades at that pace.”

The rise of data in times of crisis.

The stakes don’t come much higher than those faced daily by the UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs. Its head of information, Mark Dalton, tells Jo Bowman how data is changing the way help reaches those most in need.
It only takes a glance at the newspapers to appreciate that the numbers of people affected by conflict in the world right now is beyond vast. Mark Dalton is at the coal face of these many crises and says the situation is unprecedented in recent times. He is Chief of the Information Services Branch of the United Nations Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs (OCHA), serving OCHA staff and humanitarian partners around the world.
“It all depends how you measure it, but in terms of numbers we’re seeing about 59 million people displaced last year, which is the highest since the Second World War. We are definitely seeing a huge demand for humanitarian support and assistance, and the official demand from the sector this year is between US$17 billion and $19.7 billion. To be honest it’s even greater than that, because that doesn’t take into account diaspora transfers that go from individuals to a crisis situation.”
Four complex and, to some extent, intertwined crises currently have the highest-level OCHA rating, which sets in motion a series of urgent and resource-intensive actions by UN agencies and their partners: Iraq, South Sudan, Yemen and Syria. But Dalton points out that the fact that strife-torn nations such as the Democratic Republic of Congo, Somalia and the Central African Republic do not make the highest rating, shows just on how many fronts humanitarian groups are working, and the intensity of so many people’s needs.
Crowded market
The process of providing humanitarian aid has changed significantly in the past two decades; the sector has professionalised, there are more skilled people involved, and there are even post-graduate university courses in humanitarian development. Dalton has spent more than 20 years working in humanitarian aid, including seven years with Médecins Sans Frontières, and co-founding the British relief agency Merlin. His work has taken him to the Balkans, the Caucuses, Kenya, Iran, Pakistan and Afghanistan.
While natural disasters, which are often seasonal, are becoming somewhat easier to manage thanks to planning by national and regional authorities and aid groups, the complexity of managing conflict-related crises is intensifying. Many more people and organisations are involved than before, which is a positive development but makes good coordination more important than ever, and this is where OCHA comes to the fore.

The only poll that counts is the one on Election Day?

NOVEMBER 6, 2015

Can we expect the US 2016 polls to be any good?
The American polling community is no stranger to controversy during hard-fought election campaigns, pollsters often have serious arguments about appropriate methods (such as whether random-digit dialing or using voter registration lists are better for primary elections, and what is the proper percentage of mobile phone numbers in a sample). Politicians certainly argue with pollsters when they are not happy with poll results, often citing the shopworn phrase “The only poll that counts is the one on election day.”
Republicans attacked published pre-election polls in 2012, when a number of Republican-leaning websites were devoted to “un-skewing” published poll results: they altered partisan composition in polls to increase the percentage of GOP (Grand Old Party meaning the Republican Party in the USA – ed) voters. (The pollsters for Republican nominee Mitt Romney’s campaign did much the same thing) But their assumptions were wrong. The published polls performed well in 2012, so the notion of “un-skewing” polls, altering their partisan composition, has disappeared, at least for now.
But there are other, more serious criticisms, and debate even now about whether we should expect the 2016 polls to be any good. The challenges of polling have – in many people’s eyes – become far too difficult and polls are likely to be wrong: One former President of the American Association for public opinion research, Professor Cliff Zukin of Rutgers University, claimed in The New York Times [i] that public polling was in “near crisis.” Why? There are increased costs to polling, as more and more adults move to using only mobile phones, which, according to law, must be dialed by hand. Meanwhile, he writes, news organisations struggle with severely reduced budgets, impacting the number of polls they can conduct.
Second, response rates are extremely low. And since, only about half of American adults actually vote in presidential elections, the determination of likely voters in polls is extremely difficult. And finally, there are still questions in the US about the viability of polls conducted online, which could otherwise be a way of reducing costs and gathering good data. Even though the vast majority of American adults have internet access, the use of volunteer respondent panels still remains controversial. Zukin, who favors telephone polling, wrote: “Our old paradigm has broken down, and we haven’t figured out how to replace it. Political polling has gotten less accurate as a result, and it’s not going to be fixed in time for 2016.”