Nasir El-Rufai

Nigeria’s Growth Crisis Is a Talent-Allocation Crisis - by: Nasir El-Rufai - 1st April, 2026

Nigeria is often described as a paradox. We are a nation of extraordinary human capital—energetic, inventive, resilient—yet our economic outcomes fall persistently short of our potential. Growth remains shallow, productivity weak, firms struggle to scale, and prosperity does not spread widely enough.

Today, I want to advance a clear and uncomfortable proposition:

Nigeria’s growth problem is not primarily a shortage of talent, capital, or ideas.
It is a problem of where our best talent goes—and why.

This is not a moral argument about individuals. It is a political-economy argument about incentives.

1. The Core Insight: Talent Follows Returns

Across societies and across history, highly capable people choose occupations that offer the highest returns to ability, especially where small differences in skill translate into large rewards. Economists describe this as increasing returns to talent.

When those returns are highest in entrepreneurship, innovation, and production, economies grow.
When those returns are highest in rent-seeking—activities that redistribute existing wealth rather than create new value—growth slows or stalls .

People do not wake up intending to harm their country. They respond rationally to incentives.

So the right question for Nigeria is not “Why are people corrupt?”
It is: “What activities does our system reward most handsomely?”

2. Nigeria’s Current Incentive Structure

Let us be honest about Nigeria’s reality.
• GDP growth was about 4.1% in 2024, respectable on paper but insufficient for a country with our demographics.
• GDP per capita remains around US$1,084, placing Nigeria among lower-income economies despite our scale.
• Informal employment accounts for roughly 93% of the labour force, meaning most firms are small, fragile, and defensive rather than scalable.
• Nigeria’s tax-to-GDP ratio is only about 8.2%, one of the lowest in Africa—signalling weak fiscal capacity and heavy reliance on discretionary collection rather than broad, rule-based taxation.

These numbers are not abstract. They describe an economy where scale is risky, visibility attracts predation, and long-term investment struggles to compete with short-term access.

In such an environment, the most capable Nigerians often find that the fastest and safest returns come not from building large, productive enterprises—but from proximity to state power, regulatory discretion, political brokerage, or legal and administrative contestation.

This is exactly the mechanism identified in the economic literature: when the “market” for rent-seeking is large, talent flows there .

3. Why Rent-Seeking Damages Growth

Rent-seeking harms an economy in three cumulative ways.

First, it absorbs labour and capital without creating output. Resources are spent competing over existing wealth rather than expanding the economic frontier.

Second, it acts like a tax on productive activity. Businesses face delays, uncertainty, informal payments, and arbitrary enforcement—raising costs and discouraging investment.

Third—and most damaging—it diverts the very people who would otherwise be the most productive entrepreneurs and innovators.
When the brightest minds are pulled away from production, the quality of entrepreneurship falls, technological progress slows, and the economy’s long-run growth rate declines .

This is why rent-seeking does not merely lower income levels; it can permanently reduce growth.

4. Sectoral Reality: Why Building Is Harder Than Extracting

Consider a few concrete Nigerian constraints.

Power

Nigeria’s average available grid capacity is just over 5,300 megawatts for a population exceeding 200 million. No serious manufacturing or services economy can scale under such conditions. When power is unreliable, firms remain small by necessity.

Ports and Logistics

Average vessel turnaround time at Nigerian ports has been around five days—far above global best practice. Each delay creates gatekeeping opportunities, raising costs and uncertainty.

Jobs and Firm Structure

With wage employment hovering around 16%, most Nigerians work in survival-level activity. This is not because Nigerians lack ambition, but because the system penalizes formal growth.

When these constraints persist, entrepreneurship becomes a high-risk, low-reward path. Rational talent looks elsewhere.

5. Evidence from Other Countries—and What It Means for Nigeria

Cross-country evidence supports this argument. Countries that channel more of their top talent into engineering, applied science, and production tend to grow faster. Countries where talent concentrates in rent-oriented legal and administrative activity tend to grow more slowly .

The lesson is not that law is unimportant. On the contrary: law is essential when it enables commerce. But when legal and regulatory systems become tools for extraction rather than facilitation, they draw talent away from growth-enhancing activity.

Nigeria today sits at that crossroads.

6. Signs of What Is Possible

There are encouraging signals.

Nigeria’s non-oil exports have grown strongly, driven by products such as cocoa, fertiliser, cashew, and processed agricultural goods. This shows that when incentives align—even partially—Nigerian firms can compete and scale.

The task before us is to generalise this success, not treat it as an exception.

7. The Real Reform Objective

Nigeria’s reform agenda should be summarised in one sentence:

Make value creation more rewarding than value capture.

Everything else flows from this.

This means:
• Shrinking discretionary power and rent opportunities in government;
• Making rules predictable, transparent, and digital by default;
• Ensuring property rights and contracts are enforced quickly and fairly;
• Making it easier to scale a business than to stay small and hidden;
• Aligning finance with long-term production and exports, not short-term arbitrage.

When these conditions exist, the most talented Nigerians will move—naturally and voluntarily—into productive enterprise.

8. What Success Looks Like in 24 Months

If Nigeria is serious, progress should be visible and measurable within two years:
• Power availability rising from ~5,300 MW toward 8,000–10,000 MW reliably delivered.
• Port turnaround times falling below four days, with fewer physical interventions.
• Wage employment rising toward 18–20%, signalling firm formalisation and scale.
• Tax-to-GDP moving toward 10%, driven by digitisation and base broadening—not harassment.
• Manufacturing and tradables expanding their share of GDP and exports.
• Non-oil exports growing not just in value, but in the number of exporting firms.

These are not technocratic targets. They are signals to talent—telling Nigeria’s brightest minds that building, producing, and exporting now pay better than extracting.

9. The Strategic Choice Before Us

Nigeria’s future does not hinge on slogans, nor on personalities. It hinges on who wins in our economy.

If the system rewards brokers over builders, we will continue to underperform.
If it rewards producers over extractors, growth will follow—rapidly and durably.

This is the central lesson of economic history, and it is the challenge of our moment.

Nigeria does not lack talent.
Nigeria must reallocate it.

Thank you and God Bless our Federal Republic of Nigeria.

El-Rufai Family Announcement by Hon Bello El-Rufai - 28th March 2026

In the name of Allah, the most Beneficent, the most Merciful. Inna lillahi wa inna ilayhi raji'un. On behalf of the elders of our family, I have been requested to announce the Janazah Prayer for our dear grandmother, Hajiya Umma El-Rufai, who passed away yesterday. It will take place at the National Mosque, Central Area, Abuja at 1 pm. The burial will follow up at Gudu Cemetery, Apo. Thank you for all the prayers, visits and well wishes. May Allah SWT bless her gentle and grant her the highest level of Aljannatul Firdausi.

Signed
Hon. Mohammed Bello El-Rufai
Member.
Kaduna North Federal Constituency
Chairman, Committee on Banking Regulations.
March 28, 2026.

Malam El-Rufai asks court to quash DSS charges

Malam Nasir El-Rufai has filed an application to quash the charges the DSS filed against him for being incompetent, for disclosing no offence known to law, and for constituting a gross abuse of court process. The court filing was made in response to Charge Number FHC/ABJ/CR/99/2026 instituted against Malam El-Rufai at the Federal High Court. The matter is scheduled for 25th February 2026, before Justice Joyce Abdulmalik.

El-Rufai’s motion on notice is praying the court for the following reliefs:
An Order quashing and/or striking out Charge No. FHC/ABJ/CR/99/2026 (as contained in the charge dated 16th February 2026) for being incompetent, for disclosing no offence known to law, and for constituting a gross abuse of court process.

An Order discharging the Defendant/Applicant on the ground that the charge discloses no prima facie case against him.

An Order awarding the sum of N2,000,000,000.00 (Two Billion Naira) only as costs against the Department of State Services (acting through its prosecuting counsel) for the abuse and misuse of the court process, and the egregious, reckless, and unconstitutional misuse of the criminal justice system to harass, embarrass, and publicly victimize the Defendant/Applicant.

El-Rufai’s motion, which cites 17 grounds for seeking the dismissal of the charges, was filed on 17 February 2023. His lawyers notified the Director General of the DSS of the processes that they have filed in the matter via a letter dated 18th February. The letter also formally informed the DSS regarding the legal representatives of Malam El-Rufai, and the names and address of his team of counsels.

The grounds cited in the motion seeking the dismissal of the charges include: their constitutional invalidity, lack of disclosure of a prima facie case, citing offences not known to law and failure to meet statutory conditions. Other grounds cited include fatal duplicity and absence of evidence, lack of prosecutorial competence, the impermeable nature of the constitutional right against self-incrimination, bad faith and political persecution and abuse of court process.

The court papers argued that the prosecution has engaged in constitutional violations, breaching El-Rufai’s fundamental rights, including:
• (ii) (iii) (iv) (v) Section 36(5): Presumption of innocence
• Section 36(1 1): Right against self-incrimination
• Section 36(12): Requirement that offences be defined in written law
• Section 39: Freedom of expression
• Section 40: Freedom of association

Signed

Muyiwa Adekeye
Media Adviser to Malam Nasir El-Rufai
24th February 2026

Update on the detention of Malam Nasir El-Rufai, 23rd February 2026

Today marks eight days since Malam Nasir El-Rufai was detained. He voluntarily reported at the EFCC in the morning of Monday, 16th February 2026 in response to an invitation. He has been held since, first by the EFCC which kept him in custody until the night of Wednesday, 18 February when he was moved to the ICPC. As at today, his lawyers have not received any response from the ICPC to an application for bail; and they have not been shown any remand order as the 48-hour window for holding a person without charge has expired.

This week, the courts would entertain at least two matters related to Malam El-Rufai. Hearing in his fundamental rights case against the Federal Government, the ICPC, the EFCC and the DSS has been fixed for 25th February. This case, which is before the FCT High Court, is seeking an order to admit him to bail.

He is scheduled for arraignment on the same date on the widely publicized charges filed by the DSS.

As what may be an eventful week begins, here is a recap of the fast-moving events since Malam El-Rufai returned to the country on 12th February 2026.

23rd February
Following the 19th February 2026 search of his residence by officials of the ICPC, Malam Nasir El-Rufai has asked a Federal High Court to declare the search warrant as invalid. The case, which seeks the enforcement of his fundamental rights, named as respondents the ICPC, the Chief Magistrate of the FCT, the Inspector-General of Police and the Attorney-General of the Federation.

The case is seeking a declaration that the search warrant is invalid, for lack of particularity, material drafting errors, ambiguity in ex*****on parameters, overbreadth and lack of probable cause. He is also asking for a declaration that the search constitutes a violation of his fundamental human rights and an injunction against the use of the items taken in the search in any proceedings against him.

20th February
• Further interrogation by ICPC.

19th February
• ICPC searched the A*o Drive residence of Malam Nasir El-Rufai. Mr. Akpan condemned the search “as unlawful and clear violation of legal procedures and fundamental rights”. He said that the home invasion was conducted under adefective warrant.

• Interrogation by ICPC officials. An application for bail was submitted, but has had no response, so far.

16th- 18th February:
• Malam El-Rufai voluntarily attended the offices of the EFCC as he had indicated in response to the commission’s invitation. Following interrogation by EFCC officials, he is granted administrative bail with conditions that included having a serving federal permanent secretary as one of the sureties. His lawyers applied for variation of the bail terms. He remained in the EFCC’s custody, a situation that his lawyer, Ubong Akpan, described as unlawful detention without justification.

• Ubong Akpan also complained that lawyers and family were having difficulties in securing access to him in detention. One of his wives was not allowed to deliver his meal directly to him in the evening of 17th February but was asked to pass it to him through one of the commission’s personnel. His lawyers have reported that he suffered an overnight episode of bleeding from his nose.

• On the night of 18th February, Malam El-Rufai was transferred to the custody of the ICPC without being told where he was being moved or why.

12th February:
• Malam El-Rufai’s passport was snatched at the airport, during a failed attempt to arrest him, a seizure his lawyers condemned as unlawful. This aborted arrest prompted surprise, given that he had already notified the only agency that had invited him as of that moment that he would be attending their office on 16th February. No formal statement has been issued by any security agency to explain the drama at the airport.

• ICPC delivers a letter asking him to report at their office the next day, 13th February. Malam El-Rufai responded through his lawyers that he proposed to honour the invitation on Wednesday, 18th February given the rather short notice and the other activities to which he was committed. In addition, he had already scheduled an appearance at the EFCC on 16th February, the next available business day.

Signed

Muyiwa Adekeye
Media Adviser to Malam Nasir El-Rufai
23rd February 2026

El-Rufai sues ICPC over validity of search warrant

Following the 19th February 2026 search of his residence by officials of the ICPC, Malam Nasir El-Rufai has asked a Federal High Court to declare the search warrant as invalid. The case, which seeks the enforcement of his fundamental rights, named as respondents the ICPC, the Chief Magistrate of the FCT, the Inspector-General of Police and the Attorney-General of the Federation.

The case is seeking a declaration:
• That the search warrant is invalid, for lack of particularity, material drafting errors, ambiguity in ex*****on parameters, overbreadth and lack of probable cause.

• The invasion and search of his residence based on an invalid search warrant amounts to a gross violation of his fundamental human rights to dignity of the human person, personal liberty, fair hearing and privacy under Sections 34, 35, 36 and 37 of the Constitution.

• Any evidence obtained pursuant to the invalid warrant and unlawful search is not admissible in any proceedings against him as it was obtained in breach of constitutional safeguards.

Malam El-Rufai is also seeking an injunction restraining the respondents from using or tendering any evidence or items seized during unlawful search in any proceedings involving him. He is seeking an order for the return of all items obtained during the search, and an order for various damages.

According to the court filing “the search warrant is fundamentally defective, lacking specificity in the description of items to be seized, containing material typographical errors, ambiguous ex*****on terms, overbroad directives, and no verifiable probable cause, in contravention of Sections 143-148 of the Administration of Criminal Justice Act, 2015 (ACJA), Section 36 of the Corrupt Practices and Other Related Offences Act, 2000 (ICPC Act), an constitutional protections against arbitrary intrusions. “

Malam El-Rufai’s lawyers contend that:
• Section 143 of the ACJA requires that an application for a search warrant be supported by information in writing and on oath, setting forth reasonable grounds for suspicion, which was absent here as evidenced by the incomplete initiating clause;

• Section 144 mandates particular descriptions of the place to be searched and the items sought, to prevent general warrants, yet the warrant vaguely refers to "the thing aforesaid" without any detail;

• Section 146 stipulates that the warrant must be in the prescribed form, free from defects that could mislead, but the document is riddled with errors in the address, date, and district designation;

• Section 147 allows direction to specified persons, but the warrant's indiscriminate addressing to "all" officers is overbroad and unaccountable;

• Section 148 permits ex*****on at reasonable times, but the contradictory language creates ambiguity, undermining procedural clarity.

Signed
Muyiwa Adekeye
Media Adviser
23rd February 2026

NIGERIA UPDATE - As part of my duty as a citizen, I wrote to the NSA to seek clarification on reports about the importation by his office of thallium sulphate, a very dangerous toxin. It’s a matter of concern if anyone brings in any poison, more so an odourless, colourless one.

Please join me in a conversation with Charles Aniagolu on AriseTV’s Prime Time today at the new time of 6pm.

STATEMENT ON THE UNLAWFUL ATTEMPTED ARREST OF MALAM NASIR AHMAD EL-RUFAI

As counsel to Malam Nasir El-Rufai, we unequivocally condemn the attempted illegal arrest of our client by security operatives this afternoon upon his arrival in Abuja via Egypt Air flight MS 877 from Cairo. This is a flagrant violation of constitutional rights, executive overreach, and a deliberate disregard for the rule of law.

The invitation from the Economic and Financial Crimes Commission (EFCC) was delivered to Malam El-Rufai's residence while he was already abroad, rendering it inherently illogical and impractical to demand immediate attendance to answer purported allegations. Such an approach defies reason, as it presumes instantaneous compliance from an individual outside the jurisdiction, without regard for logistical realities or legal fairness. In response, we formally communicated with the EFCC on his behalf since December 2025, assuring compliance upon his return. Yesterday, we explicitly notified them that he would voluntarily appear at their office by 10:00 a.m. on Monday, February 16, 2026, specifying the precise place and time for addressing the invitation. Resorting to arrest despite this clear commitment exemplifies arbitrary conduct and undermines procedural integrity.

Upon his arrival, security operatives from the Department of State Services moved to arrest Malam El-Rufai without presenting any warrant or formal invitation. When he calmly demanded to see the letter of invitation — a basic entitlement of any citizen facing state action — none could be produced. No document, no signed directive, no lawful process. There was only raw power, unclothed by law. In the same unlawful manner, operatives physically snatched his international passport. This act is nothing short of stealing — the unlawful taking of private property by agents of the state acting without colour of authority.

Ordinary Nigerians present at the airport, incensed by this open display of oppression, surrounded the scene and insisted loudly that he could only be arrested upon a legitimate process. Their voices, defiant and unbowed, were a testament to the citizenry's unyielding commitment to the rule of law, even as state agents acted in flagrant disregard of it. That citizens had to remind security operatives of the Constitution is both shameful and instructive.

No government agency possesses unfettered authority to detain citizens without due process. All public institutions and officials are bound by the Constitution of the Federal Republic of Nigeria (as amended), which mandates adherence to legal protocols.

This attempted arrest directly infringes upon key constitutional provisions guaranteeing fundamental freedoms, including:

Section 35 (Right to Personal Liberty): requires that any arrest be justified and conducted in accordance with lawful procedures, such as reasonable suspicion and prompt judicial oversight.

Section 36 (Right to fair hearing): safeguards against executive actions that prejudice judicial processes.

Section 34 (Right to Dignity of Human Person): Subsection (1)(a) protects citizens from mistreatment during arrest that assaults personal dignity.

Section 41 (Right to Freedom of Movement): guarantees entry without arbitrary interception. The unlawful seizure of his passport directly restrains this right.

Section 44 (Right to Own Property): This prohibits the snatching of his passport without legal authority.

There exists no justifiable basis for this attempted arrest or the accompanying mistreatment. Despite prior intelligence of plans to effect this arrest, Malam El-Rufai proceeded with his return following medical treatment and rest abroad, publicly affirming his commitment to face any legitimate inquiry. This premeditated interception at the airport exemplifies lawlessness and an abuse of state power.

We demand the immediate and unconditional cessation of all unlawful efforts to detain Malam El-Rufai, the immediate return of his stolen passport, and a formal apology for this egregious infringement on his dignity and rights.

LET US MAKE IT PUBLICLY AND ABUNDANTLY CLEAR:
1. MALAM NASIR AHMAD EL RUFAI WILL NEVER TAKE THE COWARDLY ROUTE OF RUNNING AWAY FROM LAW ENFORCEMENT.

2. HE WILL HONOUR, WITHOUT PRECONDITIONS, ALL LEGITIMATE LAW ENFORCEMENT SUMMONS.

Legal action will be pursued against all persons and agencies responsible for this unconstitutional conduct to uphold accountability and deter future abuses. The judiciary remains the ultimate arbiter, and we shall seek redress through all available legal channels to protect the sanctity of the law.

Ubong Esop Akpan
The Chambers of Ubong Akpan
Counsel to Malam Nasir El-Rufai
Abuja, February 12, 2026

NIGERIA UPDATE: My forthcoming book to be published before the end of the year, by God’s grace. It is in six parts with each part dealing with the governance strategies and legacies of (1) Yakubu Gowon (2) Olusegun Obasanjo I and II (3) Muhammadu Buhari I and II (4) Ibrahim Babangida, (5) Abdusslami Abubakar, and (6) Goodluck Jonathan. -

NIGERIA UPDATE: "ENSURING ELECTORAL INTEGRITY: WHY I INSIST ON ELECTRONIC TRANSMISSION OF RESULTS IN THE 2027 ELECTIONS"By: Hon Abubakar MG - 09 February 2026

I have studied Nigerian elections extensively, and I must admit that what I have observed over the years compels me to take a firm position on the necessity of electronic transmission of results in the 2027 elections. The arguments I have read against this innovation, particularly those framing it as “technologically unfeasible,” are either misleading or rooted in a desire to protect avenues for manipulation. As someone who has critically analyzed both the legal framework and operational technology behind the INEC Bimodal Voter Accreditation System (BVAS), I can assert that electronic transmission is not only feasible but imperative for credible elections.

I draw on historical precedents in Nigeria to illustrate why reliance on paper based results remains problematic. Since the return to democratic rule in 1999, the most contentious elections including 2007, 2011, and 2015 have been marred not by issues at the ballot, but by irregularities during the collation process. In many instances, results were altered, delayed, or misreported as they moved from polling units to local government and state collation centers. These patterns are well documented in election observation reports by the European Union Election Observation Mission (EU EOM) and the National Democratic Institute (NDI). From my analysis, I conclude that without a transparent, real time verification system, these manipulations are almost inevitable.

I have closely examined Section 60 of the 2022 Electoral Act and the 2025 proposed amendment. The current law prioritizes physically signed results (Form EC8A) as the primary legally recognized document. The amendment, however, transforms electronically transmitted results into the legally recognized primary record, while physical collation becomes secondary. This distinction is crucial, it directly addresses the vulnerability in previous elections by ensuring that results uploaded via BVAS to the IReV portal are immediately verifiable and traceable.

I also note that the law requires simultaneous electronic transmission and physical collation. From my study, this dual system aligns with international election best practices, including those outlined by the International Foundation for Electoral Systems (IFES) and the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP), which emphasize transparency, auditable results, and parallel verification mechanisms to prevent fraud.

Critics, including Mallam Mustapha Lecky, have argued that electronic transmission is impractical due to network limitations in rural areas. From my detailed research and field analysis, I find this argument overstated. The BVAS device is designed to adapt to network challenges, data captured in low coverage areas is automatically transmitted once connectivity is restored, functioning similarly to standard SMS queuing systems. While “real-time” visibility may experience minor delays in remote locations, the integrity of results remains uncompromised. I have personally simulated these scenarios and confirmed that such contingencies are operationally reliable.

In my comparative study, I have examined countries such as India, Kenya, and Ghana, all of which have implemented electronic transmission systems. In these cases, the introduction of real time result verification significantly reduced post election litigation and increased public confidence. I argue, based on these examples, that Nigeria cannot afford to ignore these lessons, especially given the scale and complexity of its electorate. The BVAS, IReV system, properly implemented, is Nigerias opportunity to adopt global best practices while accounting for local infrastructural realities.

I insist that this is not merely a technical issue but a moral one. Democracy relies on trust and legitimacy. By resisting electronic transmission, those who oppose it knowingly or unknowingly risk perpetuating vulnerabilities that undermine voters’ confidence. I have scrutinized the law, technology, and international standards, and it is clear to me that electronic transmission is not optional, it is a civic and constitutional necessity.

From my analysis, the path forward is clear, adopt electronic transmission as the legally primary mechanism for collating results, while retaining physical collation as verification. This dual system guarantees integrity, transparency, and public trust. I have presented evidence from Nigerian electoral history, operational technology analysis, and comparative international experience to substantiate this conclusion.

Anyone who refuses to support this reform, in my view, risks being complicit in potential manipulation of the 2027 elections. I assert this firmly, the integrity of Nigerian democracy depends on our ability to implement innovations that are both technically feasible and morally necessary.

-Hon Abubakar MG
Political Thinker | Reform Advocate
[email protected]

National Security, Justice, and the People’s Wellbeing: Reclaiming the Purpose of Power

Nasir Ahmad El-Rufai, 08 February 2026.

At this critical juncture in our national life, it is vital that we speak about something that touches every breath we take in this country: security and justice. Not as abstract phrases buried in policy documents, but as the air our children breathe, the peace of our homes, the freedom to move, speak, and live without fear.

At its heart, national security exists for only one purpose: to ensure that Nigerians may live long, live well, and live in peace with one another. Nigeria’s own National Security Strategy (2019) affirms that “security is the cornerstone of development and progress in a free society, and a guarantee of the well-being of citizens and stability of the state.” National security, properly understood, is therefore inseparable from national wellbeing.

A state that is secure, but whose people live in fear is not secure. A nation whose institutions are armed but hollowed out is not stable. And a republic that protects power but abandons justice is already in decline. Yet over the past 26 years of our democratic experience, we have watched this noble idea steadily mutate into something narrower, more cynical, and more dangerous. The national security apparatus and the criminal justice system have increasingly been repurposed, not to protect the Nigerian people and the institutions of state, but to protect incumbents, preserve political dominance, and shield incompetence from accountability. This is the central crisis of our national security today.

National Security versus Regime Security
There is a profound and consequential difference between protecting the country and protecting a regime. The state is permanent. Governments are temporary. Institutions endure beyond administrations. Regimes do not.
True national security is about defending the Constitution, safeguarding territorial integrity, preserving public order, protecting lives and property, and ensuring that the machinery of the state functions for the benefit of all citizens—regardless of who holds office. It is the human security of the people in a country and the society in which they function that is ultimately national security.

Regime security, by contrast, is about preserving power at all costs. It treats political opposition as an enemy, criticism as sabotage, and dissent as treason. It converts security agencies from neutral guardians of the republic into partisan tools of intimidation. It mistakes loyalty to individuals for loyalty to the state.

Nigeria’s prevailing security paradigm today is regrettably closer to the latter. Instead of defining, defending, and advancing our national interest, the system has been reduced to regime preservation—the protection of power for a narrow clique that has conflated its own survival with the survival of Nigeria itself. This is not only morally wrong; it is strategically disastrous.

The Misuse of Security Agencies
We have seen, repeatedly and openly, how institutions meant to protect Nigerians have been diverted from that sacred responsibility. The Police, the DSS, the EFCC, the ICPC, and even segments of the judiciary are increasingly perceived—rightly or wrongly—as instruments deployed selectively against those considered politically inconvenient. The lawful mandates vested in these public institutions to target criminals who endanger public safety, drain national wealth or terrorize communities are often distorted into cudgels against opposition figures, perceived critics, or individuals with followership outside the ruling circle.

Friends, family members, associates—real or imagined—are swept into investigative dragnets not because of credible evidence, but because of proximity. This is not law enforcement. It is collective punishment. It is partisan fear wearing the uniform of the state.

When security agencies abandon professional restraint and constitutional neutrality, three things happen:
1. Public trust collapses.
Citizens stop seeing security agencies as protectors and begin to see them as predators.
2. Professional capacity erodes.
Time, intelligence, and resources are diverted from fighting terrorism, banditry, kidnapping, and violent crime toward political witch-hunts.
3. Institutions become personalised.
Officers begin to serve individuals rather than the Constitution, undermining discipline, morale, and long-term effectiveness.

The National Security Strategy itself recognises the need to move away from a purely state-centric model toward a comprehensive, human-centred approach to security. But this shift becomes impossible when the coercive powers of the state are weaponised against segments of the population.

The Consequences of Persisting on This Path
The consequences of prioritising regime security over state security are neither theoretical nor distant. They are already unfolding before our eyes:

First, it weakens the Nigerian state itself.
Institutions lose credibility. Laws lose moral force. Orders are obeyed not out of respect, but out of fear. And fear, unlike legitimacy, cannot sustain a nation.

Second, it deepens insecurity rather than reducing it.
When citizens distrust the police and intelligence services, they withdraw cooperation. Intelligence dries up. Criminal networks thrive. Violent non-state actors exploit the resulting vacuum.

Third, it radicalises political competition.
When lawful opposition is criminalised, politics moves outside institutional channels. Dialogue collapses. Extremism flourishes. The centre can no longer hold.

Fourth, it corrodes economic confidence.
Investors—local and foreign—are hesitant and cautious about committing capital to systems where the law is unpredictable and enforcement is selective. Arbitrary power is the enemy of development.

Finally, it endangers democracy itself.
A democracy where security agencies serve incumbents rather than institutions ceases to be a democracy in substance, even if elections continue in form. History teaches us a sobering lesson: regimes that rely on coercion rather than competence eventually collapse, and when they do, they often take the state down with them.

A Different Vision of National Security
This is why I stand for a Nigeria where national security is anchored in shared values, constitutionalism, and the dignity of the citizen. A Nigeria where we agree—across party, region, and creed—on certain non-negotiables:
• That security agencies owe allegiance to the Constitution, not to individuals.
• That justice must be blind to political affiliation.
• That opposition is not an enemy of the state but an essential feature of democracy.
• That the wellbeing of the Nigerian people is the ultimate measure of security success.

National security is ultimately about protecting Nigerian homes, Nigerian livelihoods, and Nigerian futures. It is about ensuring that each of us may live long—but if, by the will of Almighty Allah, we cannot all live long, then at the very least, each of us must live well, with dignity and without fear. National security is not about preserving the comfort, serenity, or unchecked dominance of the temporary occupants of A*o Rock. It does not belong to the President, his family, or their enablers. It belongs to the Nigerian people.
Until we reclaim this truth—until security agencies return to their proper role as guardians of the state and servants of the Constitution—there can be no lasting peace, no genuine stability, and no peace of mind for Nigeria.