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~ Market update ~

Selling pressure is being absorbed by strong buying activity. After the recent move, price has entered a consolidation phase, and liquidity below the lows (BSL) has already been taken.

Looking at the current price action, it appears that sellers are gradually losing momentum while buyers are stepping back into the market.

For now, I am leaning toward a continuation to the upside, with a target around 4380.

The bulls seem to be regaining control. Let's see if they can maintain the momentum and push Gold higher.

Gold Back on the Defensive
Mar 13, 2026, 20:12 GMT+3Less than 1 min read

GOLD
−0.68%
Gold prices dropped below $5,050 per ounce on Friday as a strengthening US dollar and fading expectations for interest rate cuts outweighed the traditional safe haven appeal of the precious metal.

The dollar strengthened as investors sought liquidity following the announcement of the largest wave of strikes yet against Iranian targets and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

While geopolitical volatility typically drives bullion demand, the threat of persistent inflation from crude oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel has shifted the focus toward yield bearing assets.

Market participants have largely discarded the possibility of rate cuts in 2026 as rising energy costs complicate the path toward price stability.

This surge in the greenback and Treasury yields has forced liquidations as investors sell gold to cover margin calls and raise cash.

The metal is now set for a second straight weekly decline despite the ongoing regional conflict.

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China: Inflation and trade data support modest recovery – ING
ING economists Lynn Song and Min Joo Kang expect China’s February CPI inflation to pick up to 1.0% year-on-year, mainly due to Lunar New Year effects, while the impact of higher Oil prices should appear later. They also project solid growth in exports and imports over the first two months, resulting in a larger trade surplus.

Lunar New Year to lift CPI
"China will release its CPI inflation data for February next Monday. We are expecting CPI to rise to 1.0% year-on-year thanks to a boost from the Lunar New Year effect. The impact of higher oil prices from the Middle East conflict likely won't be seen until the March data."

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GOLD MARKET- MARKET STRUCTURE ( H1) setup 1

1) Market Structure
• The HTF structure remains bearish: a clear sequence of LH–LL, with rallies acting as corrective moves.
• Around 4,88x–4,90x, price printed a bearish BOS after rejection from supply → confirming bearish continuation.
• The latest sell-off shows strong displacement, indicating sell-side control; any bounce is expected to be a pullback before continuation lower.

2) Key Levels
• HTF Supply: 5,120 – 5,160
• HTF Demand: 4,430 – 4,500
• Intraday Demand: 4,680 – 4,720
• Intraday Supply: 4,860 – 4,900 (POC / prior distribution zone)

3) Outlook
• Sell-bias in line with structure from Intraday Supply 4,860–4,900 if liquidity is swept and weak reaction appears (LTF CHoCH/BOS down).
• A decisive break below 4,680 (bearish BOS) opens continuation toward HTF Demand 4,430–4,500.
• Bullish scenarios are only considered after a clear H1 bullish BOS and sustained reclaim above 4,900; until then, all rallies are viewed as distribution.

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Market Update – XAUUSD

Price has failed to break through the key POC-zone between 4,850 and 4,900.
As long as this area caps price, the bearish structure remains intact.

There is no confirmed shift in market structure at this stage. Buyers have attempted to push higher, but follow-through is weak and acceptance above this zone has not been achieved.

Key takeaway:
• The broader bias remains to the downside.
• Any upside move is still considered corrective until proven otherwise.
• A structural change requires a clean break and hold above resistance — which has not occurred.

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