Tenzer Strategics

This 174th long essay on Nicolas Tenzer's IR blog Tenzer Strategics is also the last of six articles (plus a substantial introduction) that Constantin Vaillant-Tenzer and he have devoted to the interactions between artificial intelligence and international relations.
It focuses specifically on the uses of AI in international relations and warfare, and the associated risks. This paper is certainly central to the conversation launched by the authors.
The first part examines in depth the issue of the uses of AI in international relations. Whilst highlighting its potential benefits, it also points out its structural limitations, particularly in decision-making. In particular, they demonstrate that, by its very nature, AI is not leadership driven.
The second part shows how AI fits into a dynamic of increased competition between powers.
The third part, the longest (and itself divided into three distinct sections), explores the various risks and threats associated with AI, covering information manipulation and influence operations, bioterrorism, and the misuse of AI-powered weapons.
A final section explores the issue of regulations, best practices and red lines. Numerous useful and well-founded policy documents exist, but the current state of the world does not lend itself to boundless optimism.
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Artificial Intelligence and Geostrategic Risks New Threats Rather Than a Conceptual Revolution

This 173rd long-form essay on Nicolas Tenzer's international politics blog Tenzer Strategics—and the fifth of six that Constantin Vaillant-Tenzer and he are devoting to the connections between international relations and artificial intelligence—focuses on the key AI risks we must address. They distinguish between hype and real dangers.
This in-depth article examines several dimensions. The first concerns the relationships between AI companies and authoritarian (the U.S. now), even dictatorial (China), regimes, as exemplified by the dangerous ties between most AI companies and the U.S. government (and of course Chinese).
The authors then analyze in detail the issues of disinformation, data poisoning, and epistemological contamination. The question is all the more complicated because in this asymmetric war, there are, on the one hand, intentional actions, and on the other, phenomena of contamination and “hallucinations” inherent to AI itself.
Third, the authors delve into the technical risks posed by autonomous multi-agent AI systems—including those that are financially autonomous—which could be exploited by dangerous states, criminal groups, or even terrorists. They highlight the concrete risks in the areas of financial crime, attacks on critical infrastructure, and, as always, information manipulation.
Finally, they warn against the global risks of cognitive atrophy and explain why and how it is urgent for democracies to organize a response.
Since you are here, please consider, if you wish and are able, supporting their work by fully subscribing to Tenzer Strategics or becoming a founding member, and you will enjoy full access to the entire archive (173 in-depth essays to date, equivalent to ten books).

Structural Risks of AI: From Cumulative Threats to Catastrophic Scenarios Beyond Fantasies, Identifying the Real Dangers

In this 172nd in-depth article on Nicolas Tenzer's international politics blog, Tenzer Strategics—which is also the fourth of six articles that Constantin Vaillant-Tenzer and he are dedicating to the links between artificial intelligence and geostrategic issues—they revisit the uses and misuses of AI.
It is essential to distinguish between what AI enables, what it may enable in the future, and what it will likely never enable—even though such assessments are difficult today. They also revisit the fantasies surrounding artificial general intelligence (AGI) without downplaying its political impact.
We must thus appreciate the considerable impact of AI on our everyday practices, on productivity and employment, but also pay particular attention to certain accelerations that AI provokes in the realm of untruth and deception. In particular, the authors introduce the concept of “hallucination,” which they demonstrate is inherent to AI, and that of contamination, which they will elaborate on tomorrow in their chapter on risks.
They also detail certain other AI revolutions in the field of engineering sciences with the “augmented engineer,” in the fields of vision and recognition, and notably in translation and “multimodality,” which constitutes a breaking innovation.
The authors introduce as well certain revolutions in the realm of international relations and defense—Article 6, to be published on Sunday, will be entirely devoted to this topic. In all these examples, they show that AI cannot be decision-making. It is undoubtedly a tool, uncertain by nature, for decision support, not a possible substitute for human decision-making.
Finally, they emphasize the intrinsic limitations of AI, particularly its lack of the ability to invent in the strict sense and to conceive of major breakthroughs—at least for now. In the context of a brutal confrontation with totalitarian systems, it is essential to establish rules for democracies—the central point of the last section of this essay.
Since you’re here, if you’d like to support their work, please consider fully subscribing to Tenzer Strategics or becoming a founding member, and you will enjoy a free access to the entire archive (172 long-form essays to date).

Artificial Intelligence: a User’s Guide Robust Applications and Structural Limitations

In this 171st long-form article on Nicolas Tenzer's blog Tenzer Strategics—and the third of six that Constantin Vaillant-Tenzer and he are dedicating to the geostrategic implications of artificial intelligence—they examine the various dimensions of sovereign AI and the sovereign cloud. In particular, they demonstrate that this is a decisive battle.
They highlight both the eminently political nature of the subject and its intrinsic complexity. For Europe, in particular, the fight is far from won—since it is starting from a very, very distant position—but winning it is not impossible. They emphazise on the conditions for victory in detail.
This in-depth exploration of the challenges of digital sovereignty leads them to investigate several key questions: data sovereignty—perhaps the issue that ultimately governs everything—, the transition from research to large-scale innovation—a central focus of public policy—, issues related to the availability of private capital and public procurement, and finally, how to resolve the potential contradiction between fostering an innovation-friendly economy while still being able to enforce sovereignty rules—this is one of the major challenges of European regulation.
This is truly the ultimate battle, they argue.
Their next piece, to be published Thursday evening, will be devoted to the uses and misuses of AI.
This paper is not hidden behind a paywall. However, if you enjoy the in-depth articles published on Tenzer Strategics, please consider subscribing to the full version or becoming a founding member, and you will enjoy unlimited access to the entire archive (171 long essays to date).

The Necessity and Possibility of Sovereign Artifical Intelligence—and a Sovereign Cloud The Ultimate Battle

In this 170th lengthy post on his international relations blog, Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer offers some reflections—with a bit of hindsight—on the war waged by the United States and against . The fact that we have reached this point—beyond the inherently illegal nature of this war under international law and its strategic blind spots—reveals mistakes that go back a long way and concern both Europe and the under previous administrations. They bear similarities to those that have shaped our attitude toward .
After setting the stage in the paper's introduction, the first section analyzes the five misunderstandings—for which we are paying a heavy price—regarding the reality of the Iranian totalitarian regime. They constitute a textbook case of the lack of prior analysis of geostrategic risks.
A second section highlights the paradoxes of the debate between a long war and a (relatively) short war in relation to stated or, often, implicit objectives. To summarize, a long war is necessary to achieve these objectives, but poses risks of potentially considerable magnitude. A shorter war will ultimately leave the Iranian threat largely unchecked in the medium and long term, despite the blows dealt to the regime. Nicolas discusses these various points.
Finally, a third section analyzes the ambiguous stance of both the United States and several states in the region, which would likely adapt quite well—or believed they could adapt—to the regime as it stands. This constitutes another paradox: the lack of a clear blueprint for Iran’s defeat. This leads the author to consider the risks for the entire region, but also beyond—with a particular focus on Europe.
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Endless War, Pointless War, or a War Without Achievements? What the War Against Iran Teaches Us About Our Strategic Blunders

This is the 169th post on Nicolas Tenzer's international politics blog, Tenzer Strategics. It is also the second in a series of six articles that Constantin Vaillant-Tenzer and Nicolas are presenting on the relationship between and geostrategic issues.
Perhaps this very detailed and rather lengthy essay is, in fact, the heart of this series. Its title may seem quite philosophical, but it describes the reality of the material economy of AI, which is primarily based on heavy industry. When one speaks of the industrial revolution—the fourth in history—both words are equally important.
The giant , whose CEO Jensen Huang just held a stunning press conference right after this essay was published, is at the center—and you’ll see why. Keep in mind that its market capitalization is equivalent to Germany’s GDP, 1.5 times that of France, and twice that of Italy.
This financial—but also ecological—dimension of AI, which Constantin and Nicolas are examining here, is also why AI, by its very economic existence, is reshuffling the cards of global geostrategy.
This highly detailed paper also addresses a series of related yet crucial issues, notably those of critical and rare metals, semiconductor manufacturing, and access to components. The authors also discuss the financial circularity established by the AI giants, which helps to reinforce their monopoly.
Faced with these major risks, Europeans and other middle-power nations—provided they join forces—are far from helpless, even if their awakening has come late. They show how the example of the Emirati corporation can serve as an inspiring model.
The third piece in the series, to be published in 5 days, will further explore these issues of AI sovereignty.
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The Bodies of Artificial Minds A Non-Immaterial Economy

This 168th long-read on Nicolas Tenzer's international relations blog is the first in a series of six articles that Constantin Vaillant-Tenzer and Nicolas will be sharing with you over the next two weeks on the connections between and the key dimensions of geostrategic analysis.
It starts at the beginning: what is ? They felt that, especially for readers unfamiliar with the subject, some groundwork was needed.
They therefore revisit, as clearly as possible, a few fundamentals: the difference between machine learning and deep learning—both of which, incidentally, constitute a revolution—, the three models of AI (including the difference between proprietary and open-source models), and the use of these models.
They also devote an entire section to model providers and revisit the much-debated question of a possible artificial intelligence “bubble.” This allows them to introduce some geostrategic thoughts that will be developed in the five upcoming essays.

What Is Artificial Intelligence? Global Challenges Shaping the Coming Decades

This 167th piece on Nicolas Tenzer's blog Tenzer Strategics serves as an introduction to a series of six articles that Vaillant-Tenzer and Nicolas will be sharing with you over the next two weeks on the connections between artificial intelligence and geostrategic issues.
The first of these six essays follows immediately.
This introduction briefly highlights the economic significance of artificial intelligence, which is a fundamental factor to consider. It also shows that the cloud is a key dimension to take into account.
They also present the “work plan” that will structure the six parts of this series.

Artificial Intelligence: an Asset for Democracies on the International Stage? What We Ought to Understand

In his 166th long essay on his international relations blog Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer argues that the war against Iran should not distract us from the war that is decisive for us Europeans. The aim is to prevent Russia from achieving a non-defeat.
In a lengthy introduction, he examines how the war in the Middle East may or may not impact Russia's war against Ukraine.
In the first part, Nicolas demonstrates that it is impossible for Moscow to score decisive points today and that it is essential to take advantage of its many weaknesses, which he details.
In the second part, he shows how Ukraine is being forced to resist on two fronts. The first is Russian propaganda and influence, which aim to normalize, even trivialize and whitewash, its mass crimes. The second front is American: the collusion between Trump and Putin is here to stay. We Europeans must help Ukraine to say “no.”
In the third part, he explains what truthful language Europe must—at last—use. Taking military action to stop Russian crimes and ambitions is part of Europe's heritage. If we fail to do so, our very principles will crumble.

Ukraine: What Comes Next? Preventing Russia’s Non-Defeat

Nicolas Tenzer's 165th long read on his international relations blog Tenzer Strategics is about this commemoration of four years of all-out war waged by Moscow on Ukraine. It should never have happened.
We should have defeated Russia from the very beginning. We will bear the strategic blame and guilt for this for a very long time to come.
He begins this essay with Primo Levi's "Hier gibt es kein Warum": you will understand why.
This is also a tribute to the Ukrainian people who will eventually win—alone.

There Is Nothing to Commemorate Here Grief, Shame, and the Unthinkable

This 164th essay on Nicolas Tenzer's international relations blog Tenzer Strategics is truly a very long read.
It dissects President Zelenskyy's extraordinary speech at the Munich Security Conference and beyond (you remember that he already did the same for his adresse before the World Economic Forum in Davos through another lence).
Some vital strategic and historical lessons for Europe and the world can be learned here.
As most often this piece is divided into three in-depth parts:
1 History
2 The fate of Europe
3 Defying death
Enjoy reading — even though not a happy read!
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A True Tale, Full of Sound and Fury, Told by a Wise Man How President Zelenskyy Signifies History

In this 163rd article on his international politics blog, Tenzer Strategics, Nicolas Tenzer revisits the fundamental issue of “freedom of speech,” which is often invoked in a tendentious manner by certain American leaders. We know that it is at the root of the fight against the regulation of Internet platforms in Europe, but the subject is much broader and deeper than that.
In a lengthy introduction, he explains that this is a head-on clash between two conceptions of democracy, political liberalism and, ultimately, liberty as a principle.
In the first part, Nicolas revisits the classic, and not entirely stable conceptually, opposition between freedom and liberty. He also discusses the political and social conditions of this liberty and the environment that allows it to emerge, which seems less and less conducive to it. He combines legal and philosophical approaches.
In the second part, he reflects on what should be permitted and authorized in the public sphere and defines a number of rules of freedom. The project championed by the current US administration is anything but liberal-democratic. It is necessary to examine the underlying meaning of this misappropriation of free speech.
In the last part, he examines, in light of both this project and the concept of liberty, the question of truth that lies at its very foundation. Nicolas also draws on a warning about the historical revisionism that threatens us, parallel to scientific revisionism.
It is the legacy of Nuremberg that is under threat. This obviously has international and security implications, and we cannot separate, in the United States any more than in Europe or elsewhere, abrasive movements on the domestic scene from external security threats.

Freedom of Speech—or Liberty? Human Dignity, Liberalism, and the Fate of Democracies