Outline Financial

Wonder if building a laneway is the right move for you? Swipe through for some FAQs and get in touch with an Outline Advisor to learn more ✅

As widely anticipated, on June 10, 2026 the maintained its at 2.25%, the fifth consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. Prime rate remains at 4.45%.

Why The Hold? Governor Macklem stated: “Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for monetary policy. Raising rates to dampen inflation could further slow the economy. Easing rates to support growth increases the risk that higher inflation becomes persistent. For now, holding the policy rate unchanged balances those risks.”

Rate Path Forward: With uncertainty at “unusually elevated” levels, the Bank of Canada signalled multiple paths forward. Macklem stated:

- The case for lower rates: “If the United States imposes significant new trade restrictions on Canada, we may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth.”
- The case for higher rates: “…if the conflict in the Middle East continues and higher energy prices start leading to ongoing generalized inflation…there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate.”

What This Means for Mortgages: With the Bank of Canada on hold for now, variable-rate holders won't see any immediate changes to their payments. As fixed rates tend to track bond yields, which move regularly in response to changes in rate expectations, yields have been extremely volatile over the past 4 months. Given the unusual push-and-pull between weak economic growth and rising inflation risk, now is a particularly important time to review your mortgage strategy or look at securing a rate hold. If rates go up, you are protected; if rates come down, you may still benefit from the lower rate.

Questions about your ? Contact for a personalized analysis.

You already know how to buy a home, but buying your next home? That can be a different challenge entirely. There's an existing mortgage to navigate, equity to unlock, two transactions to coordinate, and a market that may have shifted since the last time you bought.

The good news: the current may be one of the best windows for move-up buyers in years. Our new info guide is tailored for repeat and outlines what matters most:

- Why the math works in a down market (the price gap has shrunk across all property types)
- 7 financing strategies every repeat buyer should know
- Sell first or buy first? A clear decision framework
- Closing costs, rebates, and Ontario-specific tax considerations for repeat buyers

Interested? Contact us today for your own copy!

Bank of Canada Holds, but Uncertainty Grows

As widely anticipated, on April 29th, the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25%, the fourth consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. Prime rate remains at 4.45%.

Uncertainty Grows: The Bank of Canada is navigating several major uncertainties at once, including the Canada-United States-Mexico trade agreement, the conflict in the Middle East, and the impacts of US tariffs and higher energy prices on the economy.

Rate Path Forward: With respect to the rate outlook, the Bank provided three distinct rate scenarios:

Flat - If oil prices come down, and US tariffs remain at current levels, "a policy rate close to current settings looks appropriate," and any "changes in the policy rate can be expected to be small."

Decreasing - If the US "imposes significant new trade restrictions on Canada, we may need to cut the policy rate further to support economic growth."

Increasing - If oil prices "remain elevated, the risk that higher energy prices become...generalized inflation increases. If this starts to happen…there may be a need for consecutive increases in the policy rate."

Translation: The path remains very uncertain, but what is clear is that the Bank of Canada is prepared to act decisively. All eyes will be on upcoming economic and geopolitical news ahead of the Bank of Canada's next meeting on June 10th, 2026.

What This Means for Mortgages: With the Bank of Canada on hold, variable-rate holders won't see any immediate payment changes. As fixed rates tend to track bond yields, which move regularly in response to changes in rate expectations, yields have remained elevated and highly volatile since their initial spike in early March (+56bps). Given the unusual push-and-pull between weak growth and rising inflation risk, now is a particularly important time to review your mortgage strategy or look at securing a rate hold. If rates go up, you are protected; if rates come down, you may still benefit from the lower rate.

Questions about your mortgage options? Contact Outline Financial for a personalized analysis.

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate at 2.25%, but Uncertainty Grows

As widely anticipated, on March 18th, the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25%, the third consecutive hold since the last cut in October 2025. Prime rate remains at 4.45%.

What's Next? With the Canadian economy already facing heightened uncertainty related to US trade, the war in the Middle East has added a new layer of uncertainty. The Bank is navigating a difficult balancing act. As Macklem put it: "Economic weakness combined with rising inflation is a dilemma for central banks. Raising interest rates to slow inflation could further weaken the economy. Easing interest rates to support growth risks pushing inflation well above target."

Translation? Don't expect the Bank to rush in either direction. They intend to look through the short-term energy price spike, but made clear they won't allow it to feed into broader, persistent inflation. The next decision is April 29, 2026, which will include a full Monetary Policy Report update.

What This Means for Mortgages: With rates on hold, variable-rate holders won't see immediate payment changes. Fixed rates remain tied to the bond market, and rising geopolitical uncertainty has resulted in significant volatility and pushed bond yields higher. Given the unusual push-and-pull between weak growth and rising inflation risk, now is a particularly important time to review your mortgage strategy or look at securing a rate hold. If rates go up, you are protected; if rates come down, you can still benefit from the lower rate.

Key Economic Takeaways:

- GDP contracted 0.6% in Q4 2025, weaker than the Bank's January forecast
- CPI inflation fell to 1.8% in February, down from 2.3% in January and core inflation measures are close to 2%
- Unemployment rose to 6.7% in February, with Q4 2025 job gains being largely reversed in early 2026
- Rising energy prices expected to push total inflation higher in the coming months
- The CUSMA review remains a significant unknown for the outlook
- While forecasts change regularly, at present, most economists are forecasting the Bank of Canada to remain on hold before moving rates upward in early 2027.

Bank of Canada Links:

- Press Conference & Opening Statements: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/opening-statement-2026-03-18/
- Press Release: https://www.bankofcanada.ca/2026/03/fad-press-release-2026-03-18/

Questions about your mortgage options? Contact Outline Financial for a personalized analysis.

Bank of Canada Holds Policy Rate at 2.25%

As widely anticipated, the Bank of Canada maintained its overnight rate at 2.25% today for the second meeting in a row. Prime rate remains at 4.45%.

What's Next? Governor Tiff Macklem stated: "Governing Council judges the current policy rate remains appropriate...however, uncertainty is heightened, and we are monitoring risks closely. If the outlook changes, we are prepared to respond."

Translation? The future path is uncertain. The Bank emphasized that "elevated uncertainty makes it difficult to predict the timing or direction of the next change in the policy rate." At the time of writing, most big bank economists are forecasting the Bank of Canada will be moving up in late 2026 or 2027; however, these expectations could certainly be revised given the level of economic uncertainty.

What This Means for Mortgages: With rates on hold, variable-rate holders won't see immediate payment changes. Fixed-rate renewals will depend on bond market movements. For now, bond yields have remained relatively unchanged by this news; however, now may be a good time to review your mortgage strategy given the uncertain outlook.

Key Economic Takeaways:
- Economic growth stalled in Q4 2025
- GDP growth projected at 1.1% in 2026, 1.5% in 2027
- Inflation remains near the 2% target (core inflation ~2.5% in December 2025)
- Unemployment elevated at 6.8%, with particularly high youth unemployment

Questions about your mortgage options? Contact Outline Financial for a personalized analysis.