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RBA holds, but the door stays open

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) has left the cash rate on hold at 4.35% following its June meeting, in a decision that was widely expected by all four major banks.

The hold follows three consecutive rate rises earlier in 2026 and comes as early signs of economic slowing start to emerge. Unemployment has risen to 4.5% and GDP growth has lost momentum, giving the board reason to pause.

But the RBA was clear: this is not the all-clear. Underlying inflation remains too high, and the board said it "will do what it considers necessary," including raising rates further if required.

Global uncertainty is also a factor. Resolution of the Middle East conflict remains at an early stage, and the RBA flagged scenarios where inflation could rise higher and activity slow further than its May forecasts anticipated.

What the budget tax changes could mean for property prices

Australia's property market is adjusting to a new set of rules, and Westpac has revised its price forecasts accordingly.

Following the federal budget's proposed changes to negative gearing and capital gains tax, the bank now expects dwelling price growth to finish flat on average across the major capital cities in 2026. Sydney is forecast to fall 3% and Melbourne 4%, while Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide are expected to remain positive at 9%, 13% and 7% respectively.

Those revisions also reflect the Reserve Bank of Australia's three rate increases so far this year, which have returned the cash rate to the restrictive levels seen through 2023 and 2024.

Westpac notes that grandfathering provisions are an important buffer. Because existing investors can retain their current tax treatment, widespread selling is unlikely, which should limit the downside risk in most markets.

A tale of three stamp duty policies

When you buy a property in Australia, most states and territories charge a tax on the transaction. It's called stamp duty – or transfer duty – and it can be a substantial cost on top of your deposit and other upfront expenses.

Recent state budgets have produced three notably different approaches to how this tax applies to first home buyers.

From 1 July, the ACT will abolish it entirely for first home buyers, with no restrictions on property value or income. It's a national first. The same exemption will apply to pensioners, eligible NDIS recipients and buyers who haven't owned property in the past five years.

Tasmania, however, is simultaneously removing its existing first home buyer exemption, returning all buyers to standard rates from 1 July.

Western Australia, meanwhile, is expanding its concessions, lifting the full exemption threshold for established homes to $600,000 and offering a 75% stamp duty rebate for eligible off-the-plan purchases.

What the last 20 years can teach us about property

Markets shift. Forecasts change. But 20 years of data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) has something to say that no economist can argue with.

In March 2006, Brisbane's median house price was $325,000. By March 2026, it was $1,150,000. Perth went from $370,000 to $1,000,000. Adelaide from $280,000 to $980,000. Sydney from $470,000 to $1,485,000.

Melbourne, often cited as the market that has lost its shine, still went from $330,000 to $850,000 over the same period – a 158% increase.

These are not stories of perfect timing or lucky suburb picks. They're the result of ordinary people buying homes and holding them through two decades of interest rate cycles, housing downturns and global shocks.

The current environment – rising rates, falling clearance rates and softer conditions in some cities – is part of that same long story, not an exception to it.

The 20-year numbers are a useful reminder of what the end of that story tends to look like.

Brokers now write 8 in every 10 home loans

Mortgage brokers have reached a record 81% share of Australia's residential home lending market, according to the Mortgage and Finance Association of Australia (MFAA).

That means more than 8 in every 10 new home loans are now written with the help of a broker – a figure that has grown from just 55.3% in 2018.

So what's driving it?

Well, home lending has become more complex. There are more lenders, more products and more variables to weigh up – particularly as interest rates have moved sharply over the past few years.

Brokers cut through that complexity. They compare options across the market, explain the trade-offs clearly and are bound by a best interests duty that puts the borrower first. They're not selling one lender's products – they're finding the right fit for your circumstances.

As borrowing conditions become more complex, more Australians are recognising that value.

NAB tips rate cuts from 2027

Good news for borrowers: NAB thinks the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is done raising rates.

The major lender has dropped its forecast for an August hike, and is now expecting the cash rate to hold at its current level of 4.35% before cuts begin in the second quarter of 2027.

The reason? Economic momentum is clearly fading. Both GDP growth and NAB's own business survey point to a slowdown, with growth likely having already peaked for this cycle.

That said, don't expect rate relief anytime soon. Underlying inflation is still forecast to stay above the RBA's 2–3% target until mid-2027, which means the central bank is unlikely to move quickly.

"We have greater conviction that the next move in rates is down, but less conviction on the timing," NAB chief economist Sally Auld said.

If NAB's forecasts prove correct, the cash rate would fall to 3.6% by the end of 2027.

The home loan terms most Australians can't explain

If you've ever nodded along at the mention of LVR or comparison rates without really knowing what they mean, you're not alone.

New research from Money.com.au found 58% of Australian homeowners don't fully understand key home loan terms.

Loan-to-value ratio (LVR) topped the list, with 26% of respondents unsure how it works. Redraw facilities and offset accounts followed at 17% each, then lender's mortgage insurance (LMI) at 16%, comparison rates at 14% and equity at 10%.

So, in plain English. Your LVR is your loan amount divided by the property's value – borrowing $800,000 on a $1 million home is an 80% LVR. Go higher than 80% and you'll usually need LMI, a one-off insurance premium that protects the lender, not you. An offset account reduces your interest bill by offsetting your savings against your loan balance. A redraw facility gives you access to any extra repayments you've made.

Listings surge as the market hits a turning point

Something notable happened in May. For the first time in over a year, the number of homes listed for sale nationally is higher than it was 12 months ago.

According to SQM Research, total property listings rose 10.4% in May from April to 258,803 dwellings. New listings are now 12.0% above May 2025 levels, suggesting vendors are returning to the market in meaningful numbers.

But here is the telling part. Five of the eight capital cities – Sydney, Melbourne, Brisbane, Perth and Adelaide – recorded monthly falls in asking prices.

SQM Research managing director Louis Christopher said the combination of rising supply and stalling prices is "usually an early sign that the market is at a turning point."

For buyers, that means more choice and less urgency. For sellers, pricing realistically matters more than ever.

Australia falling further behind on housing targets

Australia's housing pipeline is moving in the wrong direction, again.

Total dwelling approvals fell 3.4% in April to 16,710, according to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, following a 10.5% drop in March. That leaves annual approvals at 200,424 homes, well short of the 240,000 needed each year to meet the federal government's National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million new homes by 2029.

And the headline figure flatters the reality. Approvals are only the first step in the construction process. Not every approved home gets built, and with construction costs still elevated, labour shortages persisting and financing harder to secure, the gap between what gets approved and what actually gets delivered continues to widen.

Australia's population keeps growing. Its housing pipeline keeps shrinking. Until that changes, the pressure on prices and rents is going nowhere.

Economy slows as rate rises bite

Australia's economy is losing steam, and the latest data makes that clear.

According to the Australian Bureau of Statistics, the economy grew at an annual rate of 2.5% in the March quarter, but the quarterly result told a different story. Growth came in at just 0.3% for the quarter, a sharp drop from the 0.9% recorded in the previous three months.

ABS head of national accounts Grace Kim said rising interest rates and significantly higher fuel costs likely created an environment for more cautious consumer behaviour, resulting in reduced spending across a range of household expenditure categories.

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) expects further softening ahead. Governor Michele Bullock has noted that monetary policy works with a lag, meaning the full impact of this year's rate rises is still to be felt. In its most recent statement on monetary policy, the RBA is forecasting annual economic growth to ease to 1.3% by the end of 2026.