Crypto Universe

🚨 THE AI BULL WHO JUST GOT LIQUIDATED

One of the biggest AI bulls on Wall Street just got a brutal lesson:

Being right about the future doesn’t mean you’ll survive the path to get there.

Leopold Aschenbrenner is only 24 - and this is how his resume looks:

🎓 Graduated Columbia at 19
💰 Worked at FTX Future Fund
💥 FTX collapsed
🤖 Joined OpenAI’s Superalignment team
🚪 Gets fired from OpenAI for a leak
📖 Published a 165-page thesis on the coming AI boom
🏦 Turned that thesis into a hedge fund
🚀 Situational Awareness hedge fund exploded in size
💀 Then the 4x leverage liquidated his fund

His thesis was simple: AI will require an unprecedented buildout of chips, memory, data centers, and power.

His fund reached $45B in AUM and was up massively after fees.

Then July happened.

AI stocks crashed, his 4x leveraged long positions got crushed, shorts moved against him - and the public portfolio was reportedly sold to Citadel.

Probably he wasn't wrong about AI. But he was too leveraged to survive being early.

The market doesn’t care how smart your thesis is. If you’re trading publicly, assume the market makers are watching - and hunting your positions.

In the previous three Bitcoin bear market cycles, the path to the bottom took:

◾️ 410 days (2013–2015)
◾️ 363 days (2017–2018)
◾️ 376 days (2021–2022)

The average duration was 383 days.

The current cycle, which began in October 2025, has now lasted 297 days.

If history repeats itself, Bitcoin could be approximately 86 days away from a potential market bottom 🎯

Today, the market is bracing for the most unpredictable Fed decision in years.

Be prepared for some serious volatility today and keep your leverage under control. We will see many liquidations, so stay safe and manage your risk.

Futures are currently pricing in roughly a 25% chance of a rate hike and a 75% chance of rates remaining unchanged.

❗️For comparison, ahead of almost every Fed meeting since March 2020, the market had been around 99% confident about the outcome.

Adding to the uncertainty is Kevin Warsh, who has broken with the practice of giving markets guidance in advance.

Many market participants still expect the Fed to leave rates unchanged.

The main arguments are:

◾️ a weakening labor market,
◾️ interest rates that are already high for the economy,
◾️ inflation driven by the conflict with Iran is likely to be temporary rather than a long-term trend.

$7.5 billion in investments - and just $1.3K in revenue

The projects on this list managed to attract billions in funding, yet generated just $1,306 in revenue over the past 24 hours.

At this rate, it would take 15,418 years to recover the capital invested.

Bankruptcies incoming...

The biggest collapses never happen at the top. They happen after the damage is already done.

This bear market already has bodies. And the list is about to get longer.

Two exchanges went down in the SAME week.

BitMEX - the OG that invented 100x perps back in 2014. My first crypto exchange. BTC-only deposits, one chain, one withdrawal window a day, multi-sig everything. Everyone called it inconvenient. Turns out those inconvenient rules are exactly why they never got hacked.

All 4 founders pled guilty to BSA violations right before trial, after fighting it for 18 months. $10M fine each. Home confinement. Zero prison time.

They kept their freedom. They lost their business.

Then BitMart announced it's shutting down. Withdrawals are "still open" - but only 58 wallets pulled out ~$805K in 48 hours before withdrawals froze. Users are panicking right now. Many won't get their funds back.

Glad we never touched it.

The bottom isn't in yet, crypto bros. Capitulation is still ahead.

Who's next? 👀

What happened to crypto bros...

The U.S. Senate has updated the CLARITY Act.

Republicans released a new version of the digital assets bill, including developer protections, stronger law enforcement provisions, and a ban on government officials issuing their own digital assets until January 2029.

Democrats insisted on this condition, and the White House agreed.

If the bill isn’t passed before the August recess, it risks not making it through before the midterm elections.

My personal prediction: I don’t think the CLARITY Act will pass this year. In my view, the delay and uncertainty will happen around the capitulation phase.

But next year, when BTC is already back in a bull market, the news of the CLARITY Act finally passing will become a major catalyst for the next leg up.

And once the bill is in place, I expect a lot of new capital to flow into the crypto market over the following years.

🚨 Bitcoin Treasury Companies Are Starting to Crack 👇

The Bitcoin treasury strategy is facing its first real stress test - and not everyone is surviving.

Twenty One (XXI) CEO and Strike founder Jack Mallers has stepped down just seven months after the company went public, citing disagreements with the board.

Meanwhile, the planned merger involving Strike and Elektron Energy has fallen through, with Tether now taking control of the company.

Twenty One holds 43,500+ BTC, yet its stock has collapsed from roughly $47 to $4.50 - a 90%+ decline - trading at a massive discount to the value of its Bitcoin holdings.

And it’s not the only one.

🇬🇧 Satsuma Technology ($SATS) shareholders voted by more than 90% to liquidate the company.

The plan:

— Sell the remaining 668 BTC (~$43M)
— Return capital to shareholders
— Delist from the London Stock Exchange
— Shut down the company

Satsuma raised approximately £164M (~$220M) in 2025 to build a corporate Bitcoin treasury. But the BTC drawdown triggered significant unrealized losses, while the company’s stock collapsed by more than 99%.

Bitcoin treasury companies aren’t automatically safe just because they hold Bitcoin. Debt, financing costs, stock dilution, market premiums and the ability to raise fresh capital can matter just as much as the BTC itself.

The Bitcoin treasury boom is entering its first major stress test. The domino effect was just getting started.

Tariffs, Oil, War and Bitcoin 👇

🇺🇸 The temporary 10% global tariff expires on July 24, and the administration is preparing a new round. Up to 60 countries would be affected, covering almost the entire volume of US imports.

🛢️ Brent crude oil broke above $90 per barrel amid escalating tensions with Iran, while US gasoline prices officially climbed back above $4 per gallon. War with Iran is far from the end. This is a new Afghanistan.

₿ Amid positive news surrounding the Clarity Act, Bitcoin climbed above $66.5K. Twitter is once again calling this the “end of the bear market.” But when is it ever any different?

The 21 EMA sits around $69K, and Bitcoin is approaching this resistance zone.

We’ve already booked 3 mother of shorts from the BTC top, and this would be the 4th. If you missed the earlier ones, this is a solid area to consider a short. I expect price to ultimately go lower, but 55k is a conservative target. We’ll be holding this short for deeper downside.

Capitulation still ahead, with roughly two more months of bear price action before we bottom.

Tick tock ⏳

Trump just turned market-moving posts into a business.

Trump Media is launching a paid API that gives banks, hedge funds, and HFT firms access to Trump’s Truth Social posts seconds before the public.

The feed delivers posts from the platform’s 10 biggest accounts faster than the website or app notifications.

Those few seconds matter.

Trump’s posts have repeatedly moved stocks, crypto, oil, and the dollar. For high-frequency trading firms, getting the news first can be worth millions.

Many Wall Street firms have already signed up.