Geopolitics In A Nutshell

World is on the verge of witnessing another full scale war. After almost two years, deadly clashes erupted in the South Caucasus between Armenia and Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh dispute. Both side accused each other of violating the status quo. 13th September midnight, Azeri soldiers invaded around 10 km inside Armenian territory in Southern and Eastern part.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan announced that 135 Armenian soldiers had been killed in the clashes, where Azeri President Ilham Aliyev confirmed the death of 71 Azeri soldiers. The Armenian Defense Ministry said that Azerbaijan had attacked Armenian positions near the cities of Vardenis, Goris, Sotk, and Jermuk with artillery and heavy weapons and that it had occupied certain areas of its territory, which were later confirmed by satellite images from NASA. The Azerbaijani Defence Ministry said that Armenia had staged "large-scale provocations" near the Dashkasan, Kalbajar and Lachin regions and that it had captured multiple strategic heights on the border region inside Armenia.
The problem draws its root from 1920s when Stalin conquered Caucasus. He placed Armenian dominated territory of Nagorno-Karabakh into Azerbaijan. When USSR started to collapse, full scale war broke out over this dispute, First Nagorno-Karabakh War. Over 30,000 killed in Southern Caucasus. Armenian emerged victorious, gaining Nagorno-Karabakh and neighbouring areas, and established Republic of Artsakh.
In 2020, another full scale war broke out. Over 6,000 killed in six weeks deadly battle. This time Azerbaijan emerged victorious and regaining the control of Lachin, Kalbajar and other areas surrounding areas enclosing Nagorno-Karabakh. Russia mediated a cease fire and 2000 Russian troops deployed as peacekeepers in Artsakh.
This time also Putin has announced mediating a cease fire. European Union, USA have urged Azerbaijan to stop aggression. India also issued a statement and said the aggressor to stop the war, without mentioning any parties as aggressor.
It remains to be seen how things will shape in next few days.

Remember the date - 2nd September, 2022, the red letter day for India's aim to become a "Biswaguru". India got its first indigenous aircraft carrier with PM Modi commissioning INS Vikrant in Kochi. With this historic achievement India has become the sixth country in the World to build an aircraft carrier from scratch, making a significant step towards strengthening the "Atmanirbhar Bharat" initiative in strategic defence sector. Named after the illustrious predecessor, which had played a major role in the 1971 Bangladesh Liberation war, INS Vikrant (IAC-1) has been built by Cochin Shipyard Limited (CSL), a public sector shipyard. STOBAR technology has been used in IAC-1. It has a displacement of 42,800 tonnes with maximum speed of 28 knots and range of 7,500 nautical miles. The floating naval base is 262m long, 62m wide and 60m high. It will be operated by 1700 crew members. It can carry 30 aircrafts at a time. Around $3 billion was spent in the process.
After commissioning Vikrant, India now has two operational aircraft carrier. Previous one, INS Vikramaditya is a Kiev class aircraft carrier with a displacement of 45,000 tonnes.
Now, the biggest question is which aircraft is going to be operated in INS Vikrant? Whether it is Boeing's F/A 18 Super Hornet or Dassault Rafael Marine?
What do you think? We would like to know your opinion.

Today, 24th August, Ukraine is celebrating 32nd Independence Day. On 24th August, 1991, Ukraine gained independence from USSR.
Coincidentally, it also marks the 6months of Putin's "Special Military Operation to de-nazify Ukraine". President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has vowed stay strong against the Russian invasion and take back the lands currently occupied by Russia.
Currently intense fighting is going on around Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest nuclear power plant in Europe. In Donbas, Moscow is gaining ground slowly. But in the south things are different. Bolstered by HIMARS, Ukrainian army is launching counter offensives in Kherson region. Even they attacked Crimea.
In this present scenario, the hope for a truce is almost impossible as both the adversaries are determined to fulfil their targets.

International Tiger Day is celebrated all around the globe on July 29.
This year's theme is - "India launches project Tiger to revive the tiger population".
History - In 2010, it was decided to observe July 29 as International Tiger Day at the Saint Petersburg Tiger Summit, held in Russia to prevent the species from extinction.
Important facts- According to World Wildlife Fund expert Darren Grover, World has lost nearly 97 percent of its tiger population in last 100 years. But things are changing towards a positive way. In last seven years, tiger population has gone up by 40%. According to IUCN's recent estimation there are 3726-5578 wild tigers remains in Asia, with an average of 4500. India hosts around 70% of World tiger population. Jim Corbett National Park in Uttarakhand, has the highest tiger population with 252 inside the reserve and 266 using the reserve.

News of violence is coming from Karakalpakstan, the autonomous province of Uzbekistan. Recently Uzbek president Shavkat Mirziyoyev proposed constitutional amendments that would remove the region's right to hold referendum on secession from Uzbekistan. Violent protests erupted in the administrative capital of Karakalpakstan, Nukus. As per reports, 18 people died. National Guards arrested Dauletmurat Tazhimuratov, an ethnic Karakalpak journalist.
To pacify the situation president Mirziyoyev declared to roll back proposed amendments. Tashkent sacked the chief of staff Nizomiddinov.
Karakalpakstan is home to two million inhabitants, mostly ethnic Karakalpak. They are minorities in Uzbekistan, which is home to 35 million people.
Karakalpaks have a different language which is closer to another Central Asian country Kazakhstan.
Uzbek president accused "Outside Forces" for this violence, though he did not mention anyone.
Central Asia is traditionally considered as Russian allies. Now it remains to be seen whether Mr Putin intervenes or not.

Suwalki Corridor - remember the name. This could be the major flash point of a potential World War. This is a narrow 65 km gap between Belarus and Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, sandwiched between Lithuania and Poland.
This is a major military and strategic choke point for NATO.
Recently Lithuania has blocked the train access to Kaliningrad, only access to the Russian base of Baltic Fleet through land. This has come as an effect of EU sanctions targetting Russia.
On 8th June, Russian lawmaker Yevgeny Fyodorov proposed a legislation to repeal the independence of Lithuania.
Lithuania, a Baltic nation, has an arm force of 23,000 active personnel. The most important difference between Ukraine and Lithuania is NATO membership.
Kaliningrad is often considered as an unsinkable aircraft carrier in the coast of Baltic among the NATO countries. It is rumoured that Russia has stationed nuclear weapons in this which can hit any major EU capitals. Over 200,000 troops are stationed in Kaliningrad, which is greater than the forces of all Baltic nations combined.
As the NATO is aiming to convert Baltic Sea into a NATO lake, Kaliningrad and Suwalki gap can be major focal point of a new improvised version of cold war.
This is a news in transition. We will further update later.

In the game Geopolitics, a nation needs to think one or two step ahead of its adversaries to counter them diplomatically. We are aware that India is going to host the 18th G20 summit in 2023. According to the recent developments, India is going to host some meetings of G20 Summit in the Union Territory of Jammu & Kashmir. The J&K administration has already constituted a 5-member committee for coordination with Ministry of External Affairs.
This could be game changer for J&K. G20 Summit will attract all the major media houses of the World. Prominent reporters will be able to see the actual on-ground situation of J&K. This could bust the myths and allegations regarding Human Rights Violation in the UT, imposed by various Western and Gulf Media outlets.
It remains to be seen how Turkiye (A Member of G20) reacts. We haven't heard anything from Pakistan yet.
This will also be a massive challenge for Indian Security Forces in the Valley which they will accept gladly.
A successful organization of G20 meeting in the valley will send a powerful message to the adversaries and will prove the sheer dominance of India in the Geopolitics of South Asia.
What do you think about this development? We would like to know your opinion.

Under the shadow of Russia-Ukraine conflict, over 500 delegates from 40 countries gathered in Singapore for the Shangri-La Dialogue 2022, also known as 19th Asia Security Summit. It was created by Dr. John Chipman, Director General of summit organizer International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) in 2002. Japanese Prime minister Fumio Kishida delivered the keynote at the 3-day-summit, which continued from 10 to 12 June. Commanding-in-chief of Eastern Naval Command, Vice admiral Biswajit Dasgupta represented India.
The main concern emerged in the summit was - What is stopping another power from doing the same (Russia's so called "special military operations") ?
Ukrainian Prime Minister Volodymyr Zelensky addressed the summit virtually. He said, "It is on the battlefields in Ukraine that the future rules of this World are being decided."
The Russian-Ukraine war has increased the distrust among the geopolitical rivals and in the emerging world order, maintaining status quo will be herculean task for any world power. The speeches from US defence secretary Lloyd Austin and Chinese defence minister Wei Fenghe echoed this distrust. Both of them accused each other for bullying & violating the status quo, also portrayed themselves as benevolent of the two. Mr. Wei Fenghe vowed to unify Taiwan with mainland China BY ANY MEANS. However he also stated that China would do everything to avoid a war. Mr. Lloyd Austin expressed his concerns about China's aggressive policies in land borders, South China Sea and Taiwan. It was echoed in the speeches of US military allies too.
Climate Change was also a vital point raised by delegates. Mr. Inia Batikoto Seruiratu, Defence Minister of Fiji and Mrs. Mariya Ahmed Didi, Defence Minister of Maldives expressed powerful messages regarding their nation's existential threat due to climate change and how it could cause serious implications in geopolitical orders & security challenges. Representatives discussed about implementing "Green Defence Policy" as way forward.
Analysing the summit, experts can easily state that the World is more divided than ever, after the World War 2. Indo-Pacific region, specially South China Sea, Taiwan could be the next flash point. Almost 300,000 US troops are stationed in this region with a massive Naval fleet. The largest navy in terms of number of active personnel PLA Navy (China), has recently launched its third Aircraft Carrier, is trying hard to exert its dominance over this region. ASEAN Countries including Australia, Japan are concerned about China's expansionist maritime ambitions and constructions of artificial islands in the heavily disputed hydrocarbon-rich South China Sea.
There are clear indications that World will remain on the edge of a devastating war. World will remain divided for years to come. In this emerging World order India will be a vital player. It will be interesting to see how India will formulate its foreign policy and defence policies.
What do you think? We would like to know your opinion.

Controversial statements of Ex-BJP spokesperson Nupur Sharma and Ex-Head of party's media unit in Delhi Naveen Jindal regarding Prophet and Muslim community have sparked a far reaching geopolitical consequences between India and Gulf nations. At first Qatar summoned the Indian envoy and handed him an official note on its "total rejection and condemnation". Doha even demanded a public apology from Government of India. Later Kuwait, Iran and Pakistan have followed the suit. Saudi Arabia, Baharain, Taliban regime also condemned the statement. Later Saudi Arabia has praised the swift action taken by BJP. Perhaps the most aggressive statement has come from Organization Of Islamic Cooperation. OIC has called UN to take measures against India.
MEA of India has clarified - "These are just fringe elements and do not reflect the view point of Govt of India."
BJP has suspended Nupur Sharma and Naveen Jindal as an immediate effect.
Replying to OIC, MEA has said, "Government of India categorically rejects OIC secretariat's unwanted and narrow minded comments. The Government of India accords the highest respect to all religions."
"Boycott India" slogan is trending in social media of Arab nations. In Qatar, Supermarkets have removed the "Made in India" products.
As usual Pakistan has not missed the opportunity to defame India's reputation. Even Prime minister of Pakistan tweeted against it.
From ancient times India is the home of many religions. "Unity in diversity" is our identity. We urge everyone to respect each other's religious views. It is our duty to protect our national identity.

Nothing is impossible in geopolitics.
This week an Indian delegation led by MEA Joint Secretary JP Singh hold talks with Taliban representatives in Kabul. They also met with Malawi Amir Khan Muttaqi, Acting Foreign minister of Taliban regime.
The main agenda of this sudden meet was to ensure proper distribution of humanitarian aid provided by India.
After Taliban took control of Afghanistan, Afghan civilians are suffering accute food shortages.
India has always focused on the welfare of the civilians. Previously India has donated 20,000 tonnes of wheat, 13 tonnes of medicine, half a million doses of COVID vaccines etc.
Indian Foreign ministry spokesperson Arindam Bagchi dismissed the speculations regarding the recognising Taliban Govt. It might be just a visit to oversee the humanitarian aid, but geopolitics nothing happens without reasons.
What do you think about this recent developments?
Do you think India should engage with Taliban to counter China's influence?

India and Senegal have signed three MoUs for cultural exchange, cooperation in youth matters and visa free regime for officials.
Those MoUs were signed by Vice President of India M Venkaiah Naidu and President of Senegal Macky Sall in Dakar, capital of Senegal on June 3, 2022.
During last year Indo-Senegalese trade saw 37% jump to $1.5 billion despite the COVID pandemic.
Indian companies import huge amount of phosphates from this West African nation.
India has also vowed to work closely in green energy sector under International Solar Alliance.
Mr Naidu and his spouse Usha Naidu paid tributes to Mahatma Gandhi at African Renaissance Monument in Dakar, following which Mr Naidu also visited the Museum of Black civilization.
Currently Mr Naidu is on a 3-nation visit. His next stop is Doha, Qatar.

The theme of The World Environment Day 2022 is . Yes we have only one earth to live on and it's burning. But are we aware of it or just trying to avoid our responsibilities?
According to IPCC report "The cumulative scientific evidence is unequivocal: Climate change is a threat to human well-being and planetary health." Governments must act against climate change while also dealing with other pressing crises. If action are not taken immediately this will aggravate problems like climate refugees, acute food crisis, poverty, conflicts, climate disasters and so many issues related to it and geopolitics will be changed forever.
Are your government taking any actions??
Let us know how your government acting on it and also share your views how to act on it.
Drop your opinion in the comment section below👇
UN Environment Programme IPCC

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