Recessionalert.com

Analysis, thoughts and observations on current commodities boom, the SA Rand and inflation.

The Commodities boom and inflation considerations Since we are emerging from a 1-in-100 year economic slump, we may now be looking at a one-in-100 year commodity boom which could spark a new inflationary secular cycle. The CRB commodity index is on a post-covid restocking tear as prices of virtually all commodities skyrocket due to restocking and s

There is at least a risk of 35% US stocks correction to bring valuations back to fair value. Fear of inflation & $ debasement outweighs fear of overvaluation. See latest research at

Quantifying market valuation risk – PART 3 | RecessionAlert In PART-1 we looked at how we used the RecessionALERT Valuation Index (RAVI) to determine 10-year ahead forecasts on the SP500 Total Return Index with a better than 0.89 correlation, and how we managed to derive 5,3 and 2 year ahead SP500 forecasts with correlations of 0.8, 0.68 and 0.55 respectivel...