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Good Morning Everyone... I am no longer going to be posting on this site. Please follow RateWatch videos on my personal page Dan Rawitch Sorry for the inconvenience. Thank you

Good Morning Everyone,

The MBS are under continued selling pressure and I am not sure we have found bottom yet. Most of this selling makes little sense given the FED's pledge to buy treasuries and the markets bet that the FED will ease rates again this month. I suppose we have the stock market and the China trade war to thank for this. Many still believe that the fake deal made on Friday will magically get papered and make a difference. I guess you already know what think about this nonsense. The DOW continues to crave any sort of good news and any reason to rally and this is taking a toll on bonds. I will admit that the earnings released this morning, the kickoff to the earnings season, have been positive. This is one legit reason for stocks to rally, but not 280 points worth of good news. We need to hold 101.10 or the next stop is 100.90. As you know, I was skeptical that we hold support last week. I am more optimistic but not certain that we will hold 101.10

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Thought for the day:
Most of us know what needs to be done to get to the next level, yet many still complain or wonder why they are stuck. Instead of asking why you are not doing better, try asking what is holding you back from doing what must be done.

Good Morning Everyone,

As feared bonds have fallen. Again there is no fundamental reason for the drop and in fact, the fundamentals argue for better rates. CPI came in nice and cool, well below expectations but the Dow is up again over optimism that a trade deal is eminent. How is this possible when their lead negotiator has been stripped of his title and has no decision making ability. The overnight market was down 300 points at one time last night over a story the China changed plans and was staying just one day. Later in the night the story overshadowed with a more optimistic view of the visit and the market

We will shake this off and bonds will improve. First we need to hold support at 101.60! At the moment this is not looking good

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Thought for the day:
Do your actions match your beliefs and desires? If you have big desires and match them with small action, you are incongruent, and this will drain your joy and leave you on a path to nowhere.

Good Morning Everyone,
Bonds are under pressure this morning. THe pressure is coming from the technical and not the fundamental aspects of trade. Fundamentally the news is bond friendly and on top of that, the FED clearly stated thier intention to begin increasing their balance sheet through the purchase of treasury bonds. This is great news for rates and is a clear signal that the FED plans on easing again this month. Expectations for another FED ease in October are now at 90%. It will be ugly if the FED decides that Bond purchases will be the only medication admistered, given the huge expectation for a rate drop this month. Anyway, we are range bound and we have failed too many times at the top of the range and we will likely work our way to the bottom. At this point, I view it as a simple correction. However if the equity markets contiue to foolishly rise, bonds could see a more severe correction. Can you believe the DOW is up over 150 today? Why? Well, an "UNKNOWN" source was quoted to say that China is ready to make a deal. C'mon Man!! This is getting old. Who is this Unknown source? Its nobody, thats who.

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Thought for the day:
Being overly attached to an outcome is not healthy. The happiest people I know drive toward what they want but maintain an attitude of neutrality as to whether they get it or not. This happiness stems from the knowledge that there is something better coming which prevents them from attempting to sail straight into the wind

Good Morning Everyone,

Bonds are up slightly on the day while the equity markets are being crushed. The DOW is down almost 300 points as the markets lose hope yet again for a trade deal. This sentiment shifted negatively when our Government announced we are black listing several Chinese stocks from being purchased by US pension funds. Bonds should gain steam due to an incredibly low PPI number. The market was looking for an increase of .02 and instead we got a negative.03 reading. Wholesale inflation being this low greatly increases the odds of another Fed rate cuts this month. I wouldnt be surprised if we bust through resistance today, if the DOW continues to fall.

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Thought for the day:
It is sad how many people fear failing enough to hold themselves back from succeeding. The truth is as I look back and evaluate the many times I tried and failed, I realize I have never failed at all, for each lesson has prepared me for the greatness I now see on the horizon

Good Morning Everyone,

Aaaaannnndddd we are back to Bizarro World where everything is opposite. The Jobs report was HORRIBLE and WAGE growth was even worse and yet the stock market is rallying, thinking it was a good report. The one thing that is not Bizarro is that bonds understand it was a weak report and they are up on the day quite nicely. I must however remind you that we are right up against significant and long term resistance. I am not sure we have the necessary velocity to break above it. If the stock market wises up and starts falling, this will give bonds a nice shot in the arm and it could carry them up. Another concern is that we opened below the trend line. We are back above it and it is critical we stay above the line or we can bet that this upward move is over and we will absolutely be range bond..

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Thought for the day:
If you do not take responsibility for each situation you are involved with, you are victim and therefore have relinquished your power. The sad thing is that people that dont take responsibility cannot admit they fit this description

Good Morning Everyone,

Bonds had a great day yesterday and closed on the resistance line.
This morning theyve now opened on the resistance line. The markets are actually behaving as they historically have and should. The stock market is down considerably again and today its about a lousy ADP jobs report. It is definitely a risk off mentality on Wall Street at this point and this drive money into gold and bonds. No guarantee we will bust above the resistance but the table is set for a higher move up in bond prices.

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Thought for the day:
Its too bad that most of us lose faith just as we need more of it. Winners have a habit of seeing what they want regardless of the obstacles that stop average people. Faith is the turbo to your dreams

Good Morning Everyone,
Chicago PMI was absolutely hammered. The market was looking for a reading above 50 but we got 47.1, just terrible. Remember, anything below 50 is considered contraction in the manufacturing sector. I wish I could understand why the stock market is up 100 given an economic update such as we recieved today. The MBS is getting some lift from this news but the TLT is under some pressure. Both are range bound and be extra careful because the MBS is at the top of the range right now. Unless you have some 6th sense that we will breakthough, it is a good time to lock.


Last chance to sign up for our upcoming class and take advantage of our $1.00 tria! offer. Our next options trading course starts on October 1st (a recorded orentation is today)! We are offering a trial for $1.00! What a great opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the markets and learn how to make money while protecting your 401k! Here is the link, sign up takes less than a minute. https://www.universityofoptions.com/offers/VgXCwMFx. Your clients will thank you when you can speak as intelligently about the markets as our students can!

Thought for the day:
How many times have you worried about an incident to the point of it causing a bad day, only to find that very next day it was not worth worrying about. Your life is finite, and each day matters too much to waste over needless concerns

Good Morning Everyone,
Chicago PMI was absolutely hammered. The market was looking for a reading above 50 but we got 47.1, just terrible. Remember, anything below 50 is considered contraction in the manufacturing sector. I wish I could understand why the stock market is up 100 given an economic update such as we recieved today. The MBS is getting some lift from this news but the TLT is under some pressure. Both are range bound and be extra careful because the MBS is at the top of the range right now. Unless you have some 6th sense that we will breakthough, it is a good time to lock.


Last chance to sign up for our upcoming class and take advantage of our $1.00 tria! offer. Our next options trading course starts on October 1st (a recorded orentation is today)! We are offering a trial for $1.00! What a great opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the markets and learn how to make money while protecting your 401k! Here is the link, sign up takes less than a minute. https://www.universityofoptions.com/offers/VgXCwMFx. Your clients will thank you when you can speak as intelligently about the markets as our students can!

Thought for the day:
I am happy when my actions make others happy, but I have learned that I cannot worry about others happiness when I am doing the right thing for my family and myself. Assuming (the right thing is honest and fair)

Good Morning Everyone,
Bonds are settling into their range. The MBS new home is 101.00-101.45. Things have been volitilie enough to cover both ends of the range three out of the last 5 days. This is not normal, those are big swings. The fact that we have opened in the middle and touched both ends over the last two days, makes it tough to call the direction today. Perhaps we hit both ends yet again. I would say that the news released today was on the whole, not bond friendly. At this point I am not sure that matters with so much political and trade non-sense swarming around us. My advice is to watch the range and lock at the top. I will do a detailed analysis on the TLT bond chart during my RateWatch LIve broadcast at 8:30am. I broadcast this on the Mortgage Coach Productivity Mastermind page.


Last chance to sign up for our upcoming class and take advantage of our $1.00 tria! offer. Our next options trading course starts on October 1st (a recorded orentation is today)! We are offering a trial for $1.00! What a great opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the markets and learn how to make money while protecting your 401k! Here is the link, sign up takes less than a minute. https://www.universityofoptions.com/offers/VgXCwMFx. Your clients will thank you when you can speak as intelligently about the markets as our students can!

Thought for the day:
Setting expectations is the single most important driver to the outcome of how your clients, friends and family feel about you. You could be the best but if expectations are set too high, nobody will be very happy

Good Morning Everyone,

MBS is flat on the day but the TLT's are up nicely. It does not always happen, but it is possible that the MBS will follow the TLT up. That said, they each have their own unique technical patterns and the MBS is up against very strong resistance and TLT is not. The news, especially consumer confidence which was hammered, we bond friendly. The Dow was up close to 100 but the gain was cut in half after Trump made some negative comments about China. The market fears that China will take these to heart and their hurt pride will back them away from the trade talks. Be careful at the 101.45 level, if we get rejected another time or two, we will go down and test the relatively untested bottom of the range.

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Thought for the day:
While goals should be challenging, the work will not feel difficult if you have a true passion for what you strive toward

Good Morning Everyone,

Mortgage Bonds are strong this morning and have run up to test a new key resistance level of 101.45. There is no scheduled news here in the US but Germany reported horrible manufacturing results. Their manufacturing index fell to 45 which is the lowest level in 10 years. Keep in mind that the dividing line between expansion and contraction is 50. A reading of 45 suggests that their manufacturing is now in recession. The Dow is down again and this is helping bonds but keep in mind we may have trouble staying above 101.45.

Our next options trading course starts on September 26th! We are offering a trial for $1.00! What a great opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the markets and learn how to make money while protecting your 401k! Here is the link, sign up takes less than a minute. https://www.universityofoptions.com/offers/VgXCwMFx. Your clients will thank you when you can speak as intelligently about the markets as our students can!

Thought for the day:
Plans by their very nature do not go as planned. Prepare for it, accept it and deal with it

Good Morning Everyone,
The markets are quietish this morning Bonds are up on the day, both MBS and TLT. MBS is nearing the resistance level at 101.35 which is likely the top of the range. Remember, range bound is the rule and breakouts are the exception, so we never assume a breakout. This means you are nearing the top of the range and at the top, locking is smart. If you are risk taker and have some reason to believe the markets will find the velocity to break out and above the 101.25 level, well thats another story. No news today but next week is a very big news week! By the way....thanks to all of those the signed up for our options trading and training trial, we had a record amount of signups yesterday. :-)

Our next options trading course starts on September 26th! We are offering a trial for $1.00! What a great opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the markets and learn how to make money while protecting your 401k! Here is the link, sign up takes less than a minute. https://www.universityofoptions.com/offers/VgXCwMFx. Your clients will thank you when you can speak as intelligently about the markets as our students can!

Thought for the day:
The path to easy is cluttered with guts, hard work and determinaton

Good Morning Everyone,
The Fed and the markets seem to have dodged a bullet. The DOW is up 85 points and bond are up as well. The equity market initially sold off over 200 points after the FED spoke, which was the reaction I expected. I did not but should have expected stocks to shake it off like nothing ever happened. This stock market is determined to run in spite of anything it has come up against. At this point, I dont know what will stop it, but I do know at some point something will. The good news is that the rise in stocks has done very little to hold bonds back. I am nervous that the TLT is up against some resistance at a key fibonacci retracement point. Also, the MBS has hit a wall at 101.25 and I am not sure we can get through it without some external fundamental factor. Today we got the opposite. Jobless Claims, Philly Fed and New Home Sales all beat expectations and this will add strength to the current technical resistance we are up against. I guess my point is to be careful up here. It is likely we are going to flatten out for a bit and this could be the top end of the range. The bottom of the range has only been tested once.

Our next optiongs trading course starts on September 24th! We are offering a trial for $1.00! What a great opportunity to gain a deeper understanding of the markets and learn how to make money while protecting your 401k! Here is the link, sign up takes less than a minute. https://www.universityofoptions.com/offers/VgXCwMFx. Your clients will thank you when you can speak as intelligently about the markets as our students can!

Thought for the day:
We all end up at the same place and what youve accumulated wont matter unless you experienced peace, love and joy on your way there

Good Afternoon- here is a mid day update.

At this point in the day, the Fed announcement was a relative non event. The Fed did cut the 25 bps that most were expecting. It seems the stock market had managed to taper its expectations. At mid way through Powell's talk, the Dow was off over 200 points. It is now off less than 80 points. We needed a bigger sell off to give bonds the tail winds they needed. Bonds are bouncing around and and are off just slightly on the day. Overall, Powell did not come off Hawkish and I would say he did not spook the markets. We still need to get through the close and then tomorrow to get a true picture of how the news gets fully digested. It will be nice to have this behind us. Unfortunately there are still many many uncertainties in the market. I remain mid term and long term bullish. Short term I am neutral and would be locking at the top of the range. The top of the TLT is 140.50 and the top of the MBS range is 101.25.

Please see the bond chart below. It is looking much less bearish but not yet bullish. It is important that we close above the Fibonacci 50 line (see red line on chart)