Weathermadness

🤧🍄 TUESDAY’S MY MADNESS

THE STRUGGLE WITH MOLD SPORES!

Alrighty, folks…

Today's Madness is about something that has been driving me absolutely crazy lately.

MOLD SPORES!

Yep.

You got that right.

And if you watch my morning videos, you may have noticed something.

WHY AM I ALWAYS COUGHING AND SNEEZING?! 🤧

Well…

I think I've figured it out.

🏠 WELCOME TO MY BASEMENT!

You see, my studio is downstairs in the basement.

And this summer?

OH BOY.

It was humid.

And humid.

And then…

EVEN MORE HUMID!

We've talked about the humidity all summer long, and apparently my basement decided it wanted to participate in the experiment.

Even though I had to go out and buy a new dehumidifier, I still had problems with moisture.

And moisture in a cool basement can become a BIG problem.

Because eventually…

MOLD SHOWS UP! 🍄

I've already cleaned up quite a bit of it.

But there's still more down there that needs to be taken care of.

And I'm waiting for a really nice, dry stretch of weather so I can open up the windows, get some ventilation going, and give that basement a THOROUGH CLEANING!

At this point, I'm thinking I may need to wear a full…

HAZMAT SUIT! 😂

I can see it now.

Me walking down the basement stairs looking like I'm about to enter a nuclear reactor.

“Don't worry, folks… I'm just going down to clean the studio!”

💧 WHY DOES THIS HAPPEN?

Here's where the weather comes into the picture.

Basements tend to be cooler than the rest of the house.

And when you have warm, humid air meeting those cooler surfaces, you can get condensation.

That moisture can collect on surfaces and materials.

And if things stay damp long enough…

MOLD CAN GROW.

And once mold grows, it can release microscopic spores into the air.

And guess where those spores can end up?

RIGHT IN YOUR NOSE!

Of course!

Because apparently, my nose is the Mold Spore Welcome Center. 😂

🤧 HERE COMES THE SNEEZE!

So you're downstairs working away…

You breathe in some airborne particles…

And your immune system basically says:

“HEY! WHAT THE HECK IS THAT?!”

For people who are sensitive or allergic to mold, exposure can trigger an immune response.

Your body can release chemicals such as histamine, which can contribute to inflammation and symptoms like sneezing, congestion, runny nose, itchy or watery eyes, and throat irritation.

And the body has a pretty simple response:

GET IT OUT!

ACHOO!

There goes another sneeze!

And another one!

And another one!

And suddenly you're standing in the basement wondering:

“WHY AM I SNEEZING SO MUCH?!”

Well…

Maybe your body is trying to tell you something! 😂

👃 MY NOSE KNOWS!

That's the funny thing about the human body.

I’ve spent all these years studying weather…

Forecasting storms…

Watching pressure systems…

Analyzing humidity…

And I never really thought about what was happening inside my own nose when I sneezed!

Apparently, my immune system has its own little weather warning system!

🚨 MOLD SPORES DETECTED!

SNEEZE WARNING IN EFFECT!

😂

🧹 TIME TO CLEAN THE BASEMENT

So if you have a basement that has been unusually damp this summer, it's probably worth taking a look around.

If you see mold or persistent moisture, you've got a problem that needs to be addressed.

And if you're spending time downstairs and suddenly you're dealing with:

🤧 Sneezing
👃 Runny or stuffy nose
👀 Itchy or watery eyes
😮‍💨 Coughing
🗣️ Throat irritation
💧 Post-nasal drip

…well, maybe your basement is trying to tell you something.

Of course, there can be lots of causes for those symptoms, but a damp, moldy environment can certainly contribute for people who are sensitive to mold.

As for me…

I'm waiting for some nice, dry weather so I can get down there and attack this problem.

Windows open.

Dehumidifier running.

Cleaning supplies ready.

And probably…

HAZMAT SUIT ON! 😂

Because apparently, after one of the most humid summers we've had in a long time…

MOTHER NATURE LEFT ME A LITTLE PRESENT IN THE BASEMENT.

Thanks, Mother Nature.

I really appreciate it.

So now I have to go clean up the mess!

And that's my Madness for this Tuesday! 🤧🍄😂

Coastal Storm Update: Track Shifts Toward Long Island and Southern New England

There is now increasing consensus among the forecast models that the coastal storm will wrap up and strengthen this weekend, but the latest guidance has shifted the storm's track somewhat farther to the northeast. Instead of backing as far west, the system is now expected to focus more on eastern Long Island and southern New England, with impacts potentially extending northward through Downeast Maine.

Because of this adjustment, we've shifted the storm track farther northeast on the forecast map. The primary area of concern for strong winds and heavy rain will now extend from Long Island through southern New England and eventually into coastal Maine from Saturday into Sunday.

That doesn't mean areas farther south will escape the storm. Strong winds and periods of rain will continue down the New Jersey coast and into the Delmarva, with coastal communities remaining vulnerable to rough surf and elevated water levels.

Beach erosion will also be a concern, particularly around the times of high tide. As the storm strengthens, it should generate significant wave action and increasingly rough seas, which could push water onto vulnerable beaches and coastal areas. The combination of strong onshore winds, high tides, and large waves could create localized coastal flooding and erosion problems.

At this point, we're still classifying the system as a **4070-3 storm**, representing a moderate coastal storm on the 4070 Storm Scale. The primary threats will be strong winds, heavy rain, rough seas, beach erosion, and localized coastal impacts.

The biggest forecast change is the northeastward adjustment in the storm track, putting eastern Long Island and southern New England more directly in the path of the strongest conditions. The exact track and intensity will continue to be refined as the storm develops, so coastal areas from New Jersey through Maine should continue to monitor the forecast closely through the weekend.

Coastal Storm Outlook: Strong Nor’easter Potential Wednesday Through the Weekend

A strong low-pressure system is expected to develop along the East Coast Wednesday into Thursday, with the potential to strengthen significantly and remain nearly stationary just offshore of New Jersey for several days, potentially lasting into the weekend.

As the storm intensifies, strong winds could develop from coastal New Jersey northward through New England and possibly as far as coastal Maine. Wind gusts could reach up to 55 mph in some locations, particularly along exposed coastal areas. Heavy rainfall, rough seas, and coastal flooding may also become concerns depending on the storm's eventual track and intensity.

One question we're watching closely is whether the system could strengthen enough to acquire subtropical characteristics. If that occurs, the National Hurricane Center could potentially designate or name the system. However, there may be considerable disagreement over whether the storm should be classified as subtropical or tropical, particularly if it develops some of the stronger characteristics suggested by certain model solutions.

For now, the system appears most likely to behave as a classic nor’easter, producing an extended period of unsettled weather, strong coastal winds, and cooler temperatures from the Mid-Atlantic states through New England.

The exact strength and positioning of the storm remain uncertain, but residents along the coast should closely monitor forecast updates as the system develops. Conditions could become increasingly windy and wet through the latter part of the week and into the weekend.

🦟😤 SATURDAY’S MADNESS

THE ATTACK OF THE GNATS!

Alrighty, folks…

Today's Madness is about something that has been driving me absolutely CRAZY!

THE ATTACK OF THE GNATS! 🦟🦟🦟

And believe me…

This is not some little backyard inconvenience.

I’M TALKING THOUSANDS OF GNATS!

🪵 MY NEIGHBOR’S TREE DELIVERY SERVICE

Now, let me explain how this all started.

I've been outside cutting wood for the fire pit.

Why?

Because my neighbor likes to drag his dead trees over into my yard so I can chainsaw them.

Yep.

Apparently, I’m running a free neighborhood tree-removal operation! 😂

But over the last couple of days, while I've been out there cutting wood, I've been literally ATTACKED BY GNATS!

They’re swarming around my face.

They’re flying into everything.

And some of them bite!

IT IS ABSOLUTELY HORRIBLE!

You try to concentrate on cutting wood, and suddenly you're doing the gnat dance.

Swatting your face.

Waving your arms.

Running around like you’re trying to fight an invisible enemy.

Because that's basically what it feels like!

🌧️ WHY ARE THERE SO MANY GNATS?!

So naturally, I had to investigate.

Why does my backyard suddenly have what appears to be the WORLD CHAMPIONSHIP OF GNATS?!

Well, it turns out that many types of gnats thrive in wet, humid conditions.

And guess what we've had all summer?

RAIN. HUMIDITY. MORE RAIN. AND EVEN MORE HUMIDITY! 🌧️💦

Duh!

Some gnat species lay eggs in damp soil, decaying vegetation, or areas rich in organic material.

And when we have excessive moisture, that can encourage the growth of fungi, mold, and algae.

For certain types of gnats, that becomes an excellent food source for their larvae.

OH, THAT MAKES PERFECT SENSE!

We've basically created an all-inclusive GNAT RESORT in my backyard! 😂

Moisture?

Check!

Humidity?

Check!

Fungi and decaying organic material?

Apparently, check!

And the gnats are saying:

“THIS PLACE IS FANTASTIC! LET’S HAVE SOME BABIES!” 🦟😂

🦟 THE GNAT POPULATION EXPLOSION

So with all these wet conditions we've had throughout the summer, some gnat populations can really take advantage of the environment.

They lay eggs in suitable moist areas.

The larvae develop where food and moisture are available.

And eventually, those larvae become adult gnats.

And then those adult gnats come looking for…

ME!

My face!

My arms!

My backyard!

And, of course…

🐶 THE POOR DOG!

Oh, forget about the dog!

That poor dog is getting attacked, too!

He likes to lay out in the grass.

Just relaxing.

Enjoying himself.

And the gnats are probably having a field day around him.

And what does he do?

NOTHING!

He just lays there!

I don't know why this dog does this.

Between laying in the pouring rain and allowing thousands of gnats to swarm around him, I'm beginning to question his survival instincts! 😂

I'm thinking:

“DOG! GET UP! MOVE! DO SOMETHING!”

But nope.

He just lays there.

Maybe he thinks the gnats are giving him a massage.

Who knows?

🍂 WILL COOLER WEATHER SAVE US?

Now, hopefully, as we move into the cooler weather of fall, we’ll start seeing a reduction in these little flying pests.

Lower temperatures can slow the development and activity of many gnat species.

And as conditions become less favorable for breeding and larval development, their populations may begin to decline.

At least…

THAT’S THE PLAN! 😂

Because honestly, I’ve had enough.

I want to sit outside in my backyard.

I want to cut some wood.

I want to enjoy the fire pit.

I do NOT want to spend the entire time fighting off a swarm of gnats!

🦟 THE WEEKEND FORECAST

So here's the forecast for my backyard:

GNATS: SWARMING.
HUMIDITY: STILL TOO HIGH.
SOIL: SOGGY.
DOG: COMPLETELY OBLIVIOUS.
ME: ABSOLUTELY FED UP! 😂

Hopefully, cooler and drier weather will finally put a dent in this gnat population.

Because if this continues, I'm going to need more than a chainsaw.

I'M GOING TO NEED A GNAT DEFENSE SYSTEM! 🛡️🦟

Have a great Saturday, everybody!

And if you're heading outside this weekend…

Good luck.

Watch out for the gnats.

And keep an eye on your backyard.

Because apparently…

THE GNATS HAVE DECLARED WAR!

And that's my Madness for this Saturday! 🦟🌧️😂

Another night of heavy rains. 1.30" of rain overnight.

🌡️🔥 MY BLOG: WAS AUGUST REALLY ANOTHER DUST BOWL MONTH?
Good Weather Friday, everybody!

Well, here we go again.

Over the last couple of days, we've seen story after story talking about how August was one of the hottest months on record across the country.

And then, of course, somebody had to bring up the 1936 Dust Bowl.

😳

WAIT A MINUTE.
Let's slow down here.

Because while temperatures were certainly above normal across much of the country, I think there's a lot more to this story than the headlines would have you believe.

And this is where I always tell you:

DON'T JUST LOOK AT THE NUMBER. LOOK AT WHAT DROVE THE NUMBER!
That's where things get interesting.

☀️ YES, AUGUST WAS HOT — BUT WHERE?

Let's be clear.

There is no question that parts of the country were very hot during August.

The Southwest was a big contributor.

Arizona.

New Mexico.

Nevada.

Parts of Colorado.

Those desert areas were absolutely cooking.

🔥🔥🔥

And when you've got some of the hottest areas of the country running well above normal, that is obviously going to push the national temperature numbers higher.

So I'm not disputing that.

What I'm questioning is the way some of these headlines make it sound like the entire country was just sitting under a gigantic heat dome all August.

THAT'S NOT REALLY WHAT HAPPENED.
🌙 THE REAL STORY MAY HAVE BEEN AT NIGHT

Here's what really stands out to me.

THE OVERNIGHT LOWS.
That's a huge part of the story.

Across much of the country, especially across the eastern half, overnight temperatures stayed well above normal.

And why?

HUMIDITY.
We had an incredibly humid August.

And I'm sure nobody living in the East needs me to tell them that!

😂

You walked outside at 10 o'clock at night and thought:

“Why is it still 80 degrees?!”

You woke up at 6 a.m. and thought:

“Why is it STILL 75 degrees?!”

The humidity just wouldn't leave.

And when you don't get those cooler overnight temperatures, your daily average temperature gets pushed higher.

So while people may look at the average temperature and say:

“WOW! WHAT A HOT AUGUST!”
I'm looking at it and saying:

“HOW MUCH OF THAT WAS DRIVEN BY THE OVERNIGHT LOWS?”
And that's a very important distinction.

💦 THE EAST WAS BASICALLY LIVING IN A SAUNA

The eastern half of the country had persistent humidity throughout much of August.

Normally during the summer, we get cold fronts coming through periodically.

A nice Canadian or northern air mass comes charging south.

The humidity gets flushed out.

You get a couple of beautiful days.

The air gets crisp.

You sleep with the windows open.

Everybody says:

“AHHHHH… THAT FEELS GOOD!”
But this year?

NOT SO MUCH.
😂

The northern jet just wasn't penetrating far enough south often enough to give us those refreshing breaks.

Instead, we kept getting moisture and warmth hanging around.

And that kept those overnight temperatures elevated.

🌊 EL NIÑO PLAYED A ROLE

And this is where the developing El Niño pattern becomes interesting.

The strengthening El Niño helped support a stronger southern jet stream.

That kept feeding moisture and warmth into the southern and eastern parts of the country.

Meanwhile, the northern jet wasn't dropping south often enough to deliver those nice, refreshing Canadian air masses.

So you had:

Warmth + moisture + humidity = very warm nights.

And those warm nights are a huge piece of the temperature puzzle.

🌡️ BUT WHAT ABOUT THE DAYTIME HIGHS?

Here's another part that gets lost in the headlines.

Across a large part of the country, daytime temperatures weren't necessarily running wildly above normal.

In fact, through parts of the:

Plains

Tennessee Valley

Ohio Valley

Northeast

daytime temperatures were often near normal or even below normal.

Across the South and along parts of the Eastern Seaboard, temperatures were generally somewhat above normal.

So again…

THIS WASN'T JUST A CONSTANT DAYTIME HEAT BLOWTORCH ACROSS THE ENTIRE COUNTRY.
There were plenty of areas that had clouds, rain, thunderstorms and temperatures that weren't particularly extreme during the afternoon.

But then the sun went down…

AND THE HUMIDITY KEPT THE TEMPERATURES UP.
🏜️ NOW LET'S TALK ABOUT THE DUST BOWL

This is where I really want people to be careful.

We're being told:

“AUGUST WAS HOTTER THAN THE 1936 DUST BOWL!”
Okay.

Let's put that into some context.

The Dust Bowl era was characterized by extreme heat AND extraordinary dryness.

We're talking about a dramatically different environment.

August?

WE HAD A LOT OF RAIN.
The Ohio Valley saw substantial precipitation.

Parts of the Mid-Atlantic saw substantial precipitation.

There was significant precipitation farther west as well.

The South had plenty of rain in many areas.

There were certainly dry periods.

And there were certainly areas that were dry.

But this was NOT a repeat of the Dust Bowl.

The big exception this year was much of Texas, which was considerably drier.

But across many other parts of the country, rainfall was a major part of the August story.

📊 THIS IS WHY YOU HAVE TO LOOK AT THE DATA

This is something I say all the time.

DON'T JUST READ THE HEADLINE.
Go look at the temperature data.

Look at the daytime highs.

Look at the overnight lows.

Look at precipitation.

Look at humidity.

Look at the atmospheric pattern.

Look at where the heat actually occurred.

Because when you do that, the story becomes much more complicated.

And honestly…

MUCH MORE INTERESTING.
😂

It's easy to say:

“HOTTEST AUGUST EVER!”

That's a great headline.

But then somebody like me comes along and says:

“Okay…WHY?”

And that's when we actually start learning something.

🌙 THE NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES TELL A BIG PART OF THE STORY

To me, one of the most noticeable things about August was how difficult it was to cool down at night.

The humidity stayed high.

The atmosphere stayed moist.

The northern air masses weren't penetrating south as frequently.

And as a result…

THE NIGHTS STAYED WARM.
That pushed the overall average temperatures higher.

And that's a very different story from saying:

“THE ENTIRE COUNTRY WAS JUST BAKING EVERY DAY.”
It wasn't.

There were plenty of clouds.

There was plenty of rain.

There were plenty of thunderstorms.

And there were plenty of days that weren't particularly hot.

But the nights?

THE NIGHTS WERE A DIFFERENT STORY.
🤔 SO WAS AUGUST HOT?

Yes.

Absolutely.

Was the Southwest extremely hot?

YES.

Were temperatures across much of the country above normal?

YES.

Were overnight temperatures unusually warm across large parts of the country?

ABSOLUTELY.
But was August just another version of the 1936 Dust Bowl?

NO.
The climate, the precipitation pattern, the humidity, and the atmospheric setup were very different.

And that's my point.

I'm not trying to argue with a thermometer.

😂

I'm trying to understand why the thermometer said what it said.

There's a big difference.

🌦️ AND THE HUMIDITY IS STILL HERE!

And wouldn't you know it…

We're now into September…

AND THE HUMIDITY IS STILL HANGING AROUND!
😂

Apparently it didn't get the memo that August is over.

But eventually, the pattern is going to change.

The northern jet will begin to become more influential.

The air masses will change.

The humidity will eventually get flushed out.

And we'll start transitioning toward fall.

🍂

And then…

WE'LL SEE WHAT MOTHER NATURE HAS IN STORE FOR US NEXT.
Because if you've been following my Madness for a while, you already know…

I THINK THIS FALL AND WINTER ARE GOING TO GET VERY INTERESTING.
So stay tuned.

🎯 THE MADNESS BOTTOM LINE

When somebody tells you:

“AUGUST WAS THE HOTTEST EVER!”
Don't immediately argue with them.

Just ask:

“WHY?”
Where was it hot?

Was it the daytime?

Was it the nighttime?

Was it humidity?

Was it the Southwest?

What was the precipitation pattern?

What was the atmospheric pattern?

Look at the data.

Because sometimes the headline tells you what happened…

…but the data tells you why it happened.

And that's where the real Madness begins.

That's my Weather Madness for this Friday.

Have a great weekend, everybody!

And remember:

THE THERMOMETER TELLS YOU WHAT HAPPENED.
THE ATMOSPHERE TELLS YOU WHY. 🌡️🌎

Weather Decision Solutions Strata AI accurately forecasted the formation of TS Edouard days ahead of any other source. Landfall is expected this afternoon, bringing heavy rains and potential flash flooding to Texas. Stay safe! 🌧️⚠️

🌧️⚠️

All new site with some many features other sites don't have.

El Niño Watch
The latest El Niño update is certainly interesting. Niño 3.4 has slipped back to around +2.6°C, down from roughly +2.7°C the previous week. That small decline is noteworthy because the expectation had been for the warming to continue accelerating.

WDS is now showing 2.7 deg C above normal for the El Nino which can be considered a record now depending on the 1877 El Nino reconstruction.

Strongest El Niño Events by Peak Temperature Anomaly2015–2016: Peaked at approximately +2.6°C above normal in specific seasonal indices (ONI 3-month average ~2.3°C–2.4°C).
1997–1998: Peaked at approximately +2.4°C above normal (ONI 3-month average ~2.3°C).
1982–1983: Peaked at approximately +2.3°C above normal.
1877–1878 (Historical): Reconstructed estimates place it near +2.8°C above normal.