Take Point on Retirement

With my beautiful wife at our daughter’s marriage. Congrats to Josh Vance and Leah Vance :)

Everyone is asking about Space ex, so I thought I would share some thoughts and good advice.

Its IPO will be June 12th.

I would generally not recommend buying aggressively “at the open” unless you are intentionally trading momentum and are comfortable with very high volatility.

Historically, IPO behavior follows a pretty consistent pattern:

Many hot IPOs surge on day 1 (“IPO pop”)
Retail investors buying at the open often pay peak emotional prices
A meaningful number retrace over the following weeks or months
The best long-term entry is frequently after lockup expirations or after hype cools
The academic data is strong here. U.S. IPOs from 1980–2021 averaged roughly an 18% first-day gain.
But that first-day gain mostly benefits:

institutions allocated shares before trading starts
insiders
early private investors
Not the public buyer hitting “market order” at 9:30 AM.

For mega-hyped IPOs specifically:

Facebook opened with huge hype and then struggled for a long time after IPO
Recent 2025 IPOs like Firefly Aerospace had large day-1 pops followed by sharp pullbacks almost immediately
Research consistently shows richly valued IPOs tend to underperform after the excitement phase
SpaceX would likely be one of the most emotionally driven IPOs in history:

Elon Musk factor
AI + defense + satellite + launch narrative
limited float initially
huge retail demand
That combination can create:

enormous opening spikes
chaotic intraday swings
poor risk/reward for buyers chasing the first print
What I’d personally watch instead:

First week price action
Does it hold above IPO price?
Is volume institutional or purely retail frenzy?
Lockup expiration
Often 90–180 days later
Employees/VCs can finally sell
Many IPOs weaken around this period
Valuation versus growth
Even amazing companies can be bad investments if bought at extreme multiples.
Whether you’re investing or trading
Those are very different decisions.
For investors:

scaling in over time is usually safer than buying the open
For traders:

IPO day can work, but it’s momentum/speculation, not investing
Historically, buying IPOs at the open is not a great long-term strategy overall. Academic studies generally show IPOs underperform the broader market over multi-year periods after the initial excitement fades.

For a company like SpaceX specifically:

If you can get IPO allocation pricing before the open, that’s a different story.
If you’re buying after a massive first-hour spike, the odds usually worsen considerably.
A disciplined approach would probably be:

buy a starter position only
expect extreme volatility
leave cash available for a post-hype pullback

Dollar cost average in over 6 months! In my opinion.

Also keep in mind that every etf or mutual fund you own will have space ex in it as well. Just by nature of the size of the stock. So you don’t have to have the actual stock to have exposure.

Erick

Our advisor Jake Arnett punches his ticket to Ocean Forest for the Georgia Amateur with a 67 and 1st place victory in his qualifier.

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