Market Misbehavior

Can stocks AND interest rates keep rising at the same time?

Absolutely. In fact, the historical relationship between stocks and rates may surprise you.

Today’s Friday Mailbag tackles that question, plus Bitcoin’s chart, choosing ETFs, defensive sectors, and what nearly 24-hour trading could mean for technical analysis.

New CHART THIS 👇

Can Stocks Keep Rising With Interest Rates? | CHART THIS It’s Friday Mailbag time! Dave Keller answers six viewer questions ...

The S&P 500 bounced off its 50-day today, but the internals remain concerning.

The S&P 500 Bullish Percent Index has fallen from above 70% to just 31% in about six weeks. More than 200 stocks have flipped to bearish signals.

Also, a fantastic moment from today's CMT Association Fall Summit featuring legendary technical analyst Louise Yamada.

New CHART THIS 👇

The S&P Holds Support, But Breadth Is Flashing a Warning | CHART THIS The S&P 500 opened below its 50-day moving average before buyers st...

4 out of every 5 S&P 500 stocks are now below their 50-day moving average.

Meanwhile, technology was the ONLY sector higher today.

The indexes may still look relatively stable, but underneath the surface, the charts are telling a very different story.

Today on CHART THIS, I break down the deteriorating breadth, the S&P testing its 50-day, rising rates, weakness in bonds and gold, plus key charts including Jabil, Coca-Cola, and CrowdStrike.

📺 Watch the latest episode of CHART THIS:

4 Out of 5 S&P 500 Stocks Are Below Their 50-Day | CHART THIS The S&P 500 suffered another weak close, finishing almost exactly a...

I'm more of a trend follower (buy strength) than a mean reversion trader (buy weakness), but the setup on $RCL seems to check all the boxes. Nice bounce off established support, RSI pushing out of oversold region, PPO indicator confirming a bullish upside reversal. Maybe sometimes the setups can be kinda straightforward?

How bullish do I want to be when less than 50% of $SPX members are above their 200-day MA... and less than 30% are above their 50-day?

Is this a stealth bear market?

The S&P 500 is holding near recent highs, but underneath the surface:
📉 Only ~45% of stocks are above their 200-day
📉 Only ~25% are above their 50-day
📉 Breadth keeps deteriorating

New CHART THIS 👇

Is This a Stealth Bear Market? | CHART THIS The S&P 500 continues to hold near recent highs, but the picture un...

Breakdown from yesterday's Chart This episode:

Monday was a broad risk-off day, stocks sliding into the close, rates pushing higher, and gold taking a hard step back. But the real story underneath the headline number is a market that looks calm on the surface and much weaker underneath it.

-Why the S&P's bull flag breakout failed again, with the RSI still stuck in neutral since August
-The divergence driving this market: a handful of mega cap growth names still trending higher while the rest of the S&P has been sliding for six weeks
-Breadth has gotten so weak that most S&P stocks are already below their 50-day average, what Dave's calling a stealth bear market
-Gold breaking down through key support, plus credit spreads starting to widen, two fresh warning signs worth watching

Bottom line: the index looks flat, but most of the market underneath it is already in a downtrend, and Dave says one of these two stories, the mega caps or everything else, has to give soon.

I cover the market daily on my Chart This YouTube series. Watch yesterday's full episode here:

The Market Is Much Weaker Than the S&P 500 Suggests | CHART THIS The S&P 500 may appear to be moving sideways, but the average stock...

I'll be speaking at The MoneyShow and TradersEXPO in Orlando next week, and I'd love to see you there.

This year's theme is "Balancing AI Growth & Credit Risk: Building Resilient Portfolios in 2026-2027." It couldn't be more timely.

AI names have been doing the heavy lifting for this market. At the same time, there are signs of stress building under the surface. So the question I keep coming back to is how you stay invested in the growth story without ignoring the risks.

A few things worth thinking about before we get there:

- How much AI exposure is too much?
- What is the credit market telling us that the S&P 500 isn't?
- How do you build a portfolio that can hold up if leadership changes?

Whether you're managing your own portfolio or guiding clients through theirs, this is a great chance to sharpen your process heading into 2027.

📅 October 5-7, 2026
📍 Hilton Orlando Lake Buena Vista

Register here:
https://orlando.moneyshow.com/?scode=067851

The $SPX has gone NOWHERE for two months.

But underneath the surface?

3 out of 4 S&P 500 stocks are below their 50-day moving average.

Is this becoming a stealth bear market?

New CHART THIS 👇

The Market Is Much Weaker Than the S&P 500 Suggests | CHART THIS The S&P 500 may appear to be moving sideways, but the average stock...