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Subject: Holiday will not dent sky-high air freight rates


Tight space regarding Asia to Europe and across the Pacific, and on trans-Atlantic and Europe-South America trades, is driving up air cargo rates to levels not seen in years. Photo credit: Shutterstock.

Favorable supply and demand dynamics are driving up air cargo yields and offsetting pressure from rising fuel prices as consumer confidence in the major markets pushes up new export orders and keeps freighters and bellies full. The improving profitability of airlines is not doing shippers any favors with space at a premium on all major trades and carriers placing sky-high price tags on air freight transport.

According to the Freightos International Freight Index, air freight congestion and high rates will probably continue through to February, with shippers depending on the spot market seeing standard peak rates nearly triple.

“The air freight spot market is playing an increasingly prominent role in holiday supply chains,” said Zvi Schreiber, CEO of Freightos. “This peak season proves that uncertainty is the new norm, making it more important than ever to increase supply chain agility with broader selection of providers, modes, and routes. On-demand capacity allocation and pricing plays a critical role in making this happen.”

Tight space on routes out of Asia to Europe and across the Pacific, and on trans-Atlantic and Europe-South America trades, is driving up air cargo rates to levels not seen in years with yields at seven-year highs. Forwarders are increasingly locking in space early to ensure their cargo is not left behind in the run up to the pre-Lunar New Year rush that will begin in Mid-January.

But it is the cargo yield that gets airlines excited. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that cargo yields rose by 13 percent year over year in October, the fastest pace in seven years.

“Daily utilization rates of large freighter aircraft have increased throughout 2017, and are currently at their highest level since 2012,” IATA said in its fourth-quarter review. Increased utilization will help to further reduce unit costs and to reinforce the backdrop for an improving financial performance.

IATA said annual growth in freight volume remained robust on all of the major international market segments, broadly in the region of 10 to 15 percent up year over year. Stronger economic and trade conditions, including sharp rises in consumer confidence, are expected to support the demand into 2018, even as the boost to air freight from the inventory restocking cycle wanes. The association said business surveys were consistent with annual freight ton kilometer growth of just under 7 percent in the first quarter of 2018.

November figures show that the high-volume ride for air cargo carriers has continued, if Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific is any indication. The carrier reported a 12 percent growth in November tonnage year over year, with its 11-month cargo volume up 11 percent.

IATA noted that air freight has outperformed wider goods trade since the start of 2016, and although this was consistent with the typical pattern seen during upturns in the economic cycle, the growing importance of e-commerce could be a factor.

The observation was supported by Ronald Lam, Cathay Pacific director commercial and cargo, who said said the high tonnage growth reflected the strength of the world’s air cargo markets. “E-commerce related movements were boosted by events such as Chinese Singles’ Day, which helped to even out the traditional dip in demand following the Thanksgiving holiday, and we saw high load factors and improving yields,” he said.

“We broke our weekly tonnage uplift record in the week starting Nov. 26, while a number of key markets across our network also established new revenue records during the month. The outlook remains positive and is expected to carry through until Christmas.”

Even though belly hold capacity continues to dominate the air cargo business, the addition of below deck freight space on passenger planes was down almost 5 percent in 2017 compared with 2016. It was an even greater decline in freighter capacity. The 1,978 tonnes of payload capacity estimated to be added to the freighter fleet in 2017 was the smallest increase since 2008, and down 30 percent on new capacity added in 2016.

Large widebody freighter aircraft utilization is also trending upward and is now back to levels last seen in 2012, with airlines managing to maintain the average freight load factor at 2014 levels.

But positive as the market is for carriers, shippers are facing chronic space constraints on the major routes and are being forced to pay soaring freight rates with congestion and delays at air cargo hubs struggling to handle the record volume.

The logistics manager of a global electronics group based in Europe said air freight prices have been rising for the last two months, especially on lanes out of Europe to the United States and Asia, and also on Asia-Europe routes, with US-Europe the only trade lane unaffected.

But for about half of the shippers that use air cargo, it is an emergency option and not one of choice, so the space constraints and backlogs come at a time when there is no room for additional delays.

The impact of excessive demand is being felt across major European airports and airlines. A Lufthansa Cargo spokesperson told JOC.com that flights to every destination from major German airports were full.

“Especially our flights to North America including Mexico are showing extremely high demand and in consequence very high load factors. But also our flights to Asia and the rest of the world are full for weeks and we expect this to continue for some time,” the spokesperson said.

Unfortunately, airlines are not expecting congestion to abate and prices to return to normal until Jan. 15, just in time to start heating up again as shipments compete to get out of airports before the Chinese New Year shutdown, said Manel Galindo, CEO of Freightos WebCargo.

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06/28/2018

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joc.com 12/27/2017

www.joc.com

Subject: Holiday will not dent sky-high air freight rates

https://www.joc.com/sites/default/files/field_feature_image/FedEx%20Jet%202.jpg

Tight space regarding Asia to Europe and across the Pacific, and on trans-Atlantic and Europe-South America trades, is driving up air cargo rates to levels not seen in years. Photo credit: Shutterstock.

Favorable supply and demand dynamics are driving up air cargo yields and offsetting pressure from rising fuel prices as consumer confidence in the major markets pushes up new export orders and keeps freighters and bellies full. The improving profitability of airlines is not doing shippers any favors with space at a premium on all major trades and carriers placing sky-high price tags on air freight transport.

According to the Freightos International Freight Index, air freight congestion and high rates will probably continue through to February, with shippers depending on the spot market seeing standard peak rates nearly triple.

“The air freight spot market is playing an increasingly prominent role in holiday supply chains,” said Zvi Schreiber, CEO of Freightos. “This peak season proves that uncertainty is the new norm, making it more important than ever to increase supply chain agility with broader selection of providers, modes, and routes. On-demand capacity allocation and pricing plays a critical role in making this happen.”

Tight space on routes out of Asia to Europe and across the Pacific, and on trans-Atlantic and Europe-South America trades, is driving up air cargo rates to levels not seen in years with yields at seven-year highs. Forwarders are increasingly locking in space early to ensure their cargo is not left behind in the run up to the pre-Lunar New Year rush that will begin in Mid-January.

But it is the cargo yield that gets airlines excited. The International Air Transport Association (IATA) reports that cargo yields rose by 13 percent year over year in October, the fastest pace in seven years.

“Daily utilization rates of large freighter aircraft have increased throughout 2017, and are currently at their highest level since 2012,” IATA said in its fourth-quarter review. Increased utilization will help to further reduce unit costs and to reinforce the backdrop for an improving financial performance.

IATA said annual growth in freight volume remained robust on all of the major international market segments, broadly in the region of 10 to 15 percent up year over year. Stronger economic and trade conditions, including sharp rises in consumer confidence, are expected to support the demand into 2018, even as the boost to air freight from the inventory restocking cycle wanes. The association said business surveys were consistent with annual freight ton kilometer growth of just under 7 percent in the first quarter of 2018.

November figures show that the high-volume ride for air cargo carriers has continued, if Hong Kong-based Cathay Pacific is any indication. The carrier reported a 12 percent growth in November tonnage year over year, with its 11-month cargo volume up 11 percent.

IATA noted that air freight has outperformed wider goods trade since the start of 2016, and although this was consistent with the typical pattern seen during upturns in the economic cycle, the growing importance of e-commerce could be a factor.

The observation was supported by Ronald Lam, Cathay Pacific director commercial and cargo, who said said the high tonnage growth reflected the strength of the world’s air cargo markets. “E-commerce related movements were boosted by events such as Chinese Singles’ Day, which helped to even out the traditional dip in demand following the Thanksgiving holiday, and we saw high load factors and improving yields,” he said.

“We broke our weekly tonnage uplift record in the week starting Nov. 26, while a number of key markets across our network also established new revenue records during the month. The outlook remains positive and is expected to carry through until Christmas.”

Even though belly hold capacity continues to dominate the air cargo business, the addition of below deck freight space on passenger planes was down almost 5 percent in 2017 compared with 2016. It was an even greater decline in freighter capacity. The 1,978 tonnes of payload capacity estimated to be added to the freighter fleet in 2017 was the smallest increase since 2008, and down 30 percent on new capacity added in 2016.

Large widebody freighter aircraft utilization is also trending upward and is now back to levels last seen in 2012, with airlines managing to maintain the average freight load factor at 2014 levels.

But positive as the market is for carriers, shippers are facing chronic space constraints on the major routes and are being forced to pay soaring freight rates with congestion and delays at air cargo hubs struggling to handle the record volume.

The logistics manager of a global electronics group based in Europe said air freight prices have been rising for the last two months, especially on lanes out of Europe to the United States and Asia, and also on Asia-Europe routes, with US-Europe the only trade lane unaffected.

But for about half of the shippers that use air cargo, it is an emergency option and not one of choice, so the space constraints and backlogs come at a time when there is no room for additional delays.

The impact of excessive demand is being felt across major European airports and airlines. A Lufthansa Cargo spokesperson told JOC.com that flights to every destination from major German airports were full.

“Especially our flights to North America including Mexico are showing extremely high demand and in consequence very high load factors. But also our flights to Asia and the rest of the world are full for weeks and we expect this to continue for some time,” the spokesperson said.

Unfortunately, airlines are not expecting congestion to abate and prices to return to normal until Jan. 15, just in time to start heating up again as shipments compete to get out of airports before the Chinese New Year shutdown, said Manel Galindo, CEO of Freightos WebCargo.

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