Storm Tramp Weather Guide

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🚨 FATHER'S DAY TORNADO THREAT IS GROWING 🚨

If you have Father's Day plans across parts of Missouri, Illinois, Indiana, and Kentucky, you'll want to keep a close eye on the sky tomorrow.

🌪️ Strong tornadoes may be possible
💨 Damaging winds over 75 MPH
🧊 Large hail
⚡ Dangerous lightning

The greatest concern appears to be from eastern Missouri into central and southern Illinois, where conditions may become favorable for rotating supercell thunderstorms capable of producing tornadoes.

⏰ Storms could develop during the late afternoon and continue into the nighttime hours, potentially impacting travel, cookouts, family gatherings, and outdoor Father's Day celebrations.

⚠️ Don't let the sunny start fool you. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and know where you would take shelter if severe weather develops.

We'll be tracking this threat closely and providing updates as new information becomes available.

📸 Graphic Credit: The Weather Channel & Dr. Greg Forbes

🌪️ Tomorrow is one of those days where we can trend up really fast or down really fast with the tornado risk on a dime so you'll wanna pay close attention to our updates through the day. It's a tricky forecast, but we will hone in on who has the greatest risk and have you covered!

Wherever the boundary sets up in wake of the early afternoon round is key. I don't think the ceiling on this event is an outbreak of tornadoes, but certainly 1-5 tornadoes, with a couple of them being strong (EF2+) is on the table. Damaging winds, large hail, and flash flooding are also going to be a big issue.

If we get a lot of rain and storms in the afternoon this may end up "ruining" the atmosphere and not allowing enough energy to build for tornadoes with the later round. That's the best case. Worst case is that storms move through fast and we clear out by mid afternoon with that boundary still sitting around for storms to latch onto.

Lots of moving parts, but again we will have you covered with frequent updates!

It just doesn’t stop. This is for tomorrow. Models continue to trend up on severity of storms and risk area. Watching the St.Louis area and central/southern IL for an elevated risk of stronger tornados. Quiets down for a few days, and then it looks like we may just run it back again later in the week with another troughing event and another possible multi-state large scale severe weather outbreak.


Fun fact: you can thank the corn for all of this instability in the atmosphere.

Looking ahead to Sunday now. SPC has a Level 2 of 5 risk up across Kansas, Missouri, and Oklahoma along a stalled-out front.

The likely play: a cluster of morning storms rolls east, then the air heats back up behind it and new storms build along the front from northeast Oklahoma toward St. Louis. Big hail and damaging wind are the main concerns.

One thing forecasters are watching closely is eastern Missouri into Illinois. If a low pressure spins up there in the afternoon, it could crank up the tornado threat in a small area. That's a maybe, not a lock. Two days out, just something to keep an eye on.

Here we go again...

The set up Sunday is looking increasingly favorable for another round of severe weather across parts of the region.

A low pressure system will work across Illinois and Indiana and strong southerly moisture transport will create a favorable environment for severe storms Sunday PM.

More details available on this morning's update on the BAM Weather App: bamweather.com/signup.

We have a 36 hour break... then it's time for the next system to set up shop in the Central Plains! This will start off another active period of heavy rain and storm clusters, with this pattern likely continuing into the end of June!

Long range analysis is critical through this period! Let's talk about how we can help: https://bamwx.com/get-started

Tornado WATCH has been extended across ALL of New Hampshire, north central Massachusetts, and western Maine.

Eyes on the South today as well! Tornados and wind! Tropical storm Arthur may be no more but it will still pack a punch and continue to strengthen as the low pushes east.