Forecasting Faith

While much of Central Texas will be dealing with heat index values near or above 110°, our attention also turns to the northwest portions of the area, where a Marginal Risk (Level 1 of 5) for severe weather has been outlined.

A few showers and thunderstorms may develop late tonight, and while widespread severe weather is not expected, any stronger storm could produce gusty winds, frequent lightning, and heavy downpours.

Rain chances will linger into Friday for Juneteenth, which is why Friday has also been added to our Weather Impact Alert series. Expect off-and-on showers throughout the day, along with the possibility of a few isolated thunderstorms.

While severe weather is not expected, periods of rain could briefly impact outdoor celebrations, festivals, cookouts, and other holiday plans. Friday is not shaping up to be a washout, but those with outdoor activities should be prepared for occasional interruptions from passing showers. Be sure to keep an eye on the forecast and have a backup plan if you're spending time outdoors.

Mostly sunny skies today with afternoon temperatures reaching the upper 90s. South-southeast winds will remain sustained at 10 to 15 mph, contributing to hot and humid conditions across the area.

Dangerous heat is expected across Central Texas today, with feels-like temperatures climbing ABOVE the 110° range for many locations.

As a result, the first heat-related alerts of the year have been issued. Whether you're under a Heat Advisory or an Extreme Heat Warning, the message is the same: it's dangerously hot. Limit strenuous outdoor activities, stay hydrated, and take frequent breaks in air-conditioned spaces.

We have our first tropical storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season: Arthur. The storm currently has sustained winds of 40 mph and is moving slowly to the northeast at 9 mph.

At this time, we are not anticipating any major impacts locally. However, a few isolated showers may develop farther southeast as the tail end of the system pulls additional moisture into the region.

The situation is different for our friends along the Gulf Coast, where flash flood risks are possible from Texas to Florida as tropical moisture continues to move inland.

🌀 The tropics continue to grab attention as the National Hurricane Center has increased development chances in the Gulf to 60% over the next 7 days.

Some models develop this system into a tropical depression, while others strengthen it into what could become the first named storm of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season.

Regardless of development, tropical moisture is already bringing an increased flash flood threat across much of the South today. For Central Texas, some of the back end of same moisture will interact with a dryline to our west and a sagging front to our north will increase rain chances before dawn Friday.

A Marginal to Slight Risk for flash flooding is in place Friday, and we'll be monitoring conditions closely, especially with Juneteenth events planned across the area.

The good news? Most of Friday looks mainly dry before rain chances possibly increase later.

These photos show some of the damage left behind after last nights heavy rainfall. Several locations picked up 2–4 inches of rain, causing flash flooding, road closures, and dangerous travel conditions. Unfortunately, multiple vehicles were totaled after drivers encountered floodwaters.
With additional rain in the forecast, now is the time to stay alert and use extra caution. It only takes a small amount of moving water to sweep a vehicle off the roadway, and conditions can change in a matter of minutes.
If you come across a flooded road, turn around and find another route. No destination is worth risking your safety.
Please keep an eye on weather updates, allow extra travel time, and check on friends and family in flood-prone areas.

👉 Contact the City of Waco through the MyWaco App or at (254) 299-2489 (CITY) if you see anything on your commute needing attention.

Stay safe, Central Texas. 🌧️💙

MilamCounty FlashFlooding TurnAroundDontDrown TexasWeather TXwx StaySafe

Pic credit:
City of Waco & Milam County Sheriff’s Office

Here’s what CR132 looks like this morning after all the rains…needless to say, the road is closed.

The weekend stays relatively quiet, but changes arrive by Sunday as deep tropical moisture associated with the remnants of former Tropical Storm Christina from the Pacific, moves into Central Texas.

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop late Sunday night, with rain chances continuing through Monday and Tuesday. We are currently under a Marginal to Slight Risk for isolated to scattered flash flooding, especially from late Sunday night through Monday.

We’re also monitoring a cold front expected to move into Texas early next week. The front is forecast to stall near the area, helping to keep moisture in place and allowing rain chances to linger through Tuesday.

⚠️ Weather Impact Alert: Monday
Flooding of low-water crossings, poor drainage areas, and roadways will be possible as periods of heavy rain move across the area.

🌴 Tropics Update: The National Hurricane Center is tracking the first area of interest of the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season. Development chances remain low, but this system is worth watching.

The same moisture associated with the remnants of what was Tropical Storm Cristina in the eastern Pacific is expected to move northward and help increase rain chances across Central Texas early next week.

At this point, the main concern is not tropical development, but rather the potential for increased tropical moisture to bring a better chance for showers and thunderstorms. We’ll continue to monitor the latest trends as we head into next week. ☔️🌴