Edward Jones Financial Advisor - Nathan McLaughlin

After a steady rally from March through July, the market's mood has shifted more recently, with stocks falling last week, continuing what has been a rather weak August so far. Enthusiasm around a resilient economy, moderating inflation and artificial intelligence is not gone, but it has been countered by global growth concerns and a leg higher in interest rates of late.

In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we look at three key trends that have taken shape in August and what they may signal about the market's path over the remainder of the year.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a remarkably strong rally to start the year, markets have given back a bit in August thus far, with the S&P 500 down around 3% since its recent high on July 31. Underneath the surface, however, we see the Nasdaq is down over 4.0% during this period, and the "Magnificent 7" large-cap stocks are down over 5.0%.

The parts of the market that have led the way higher are now perhaps taking a breather, which we view as a healthy development as investors digest outsized gains. Take a closer look at the rest of our key takeaways in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

August started with a bang as the market's summer calm was disrupted by news that Fitch downgraded the U.S. debt rating from AAA to AA+. U.S. political brinkmanship and debt concerns are not new, but the Fitch downgrade shines the spotlight on the worsening fiscal outlook. In this week's market update, we examine whether this development alters the outlook for markets and provide our take on the jump in government bond yields and the latest jobs report.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

While the move higher in markets was sparked earlier by the enthusiasm around artificial intelligence, the markets more recently seem to be looking at a trifecta of better macro trends. The Fed and other global central banks may be nearing an end to rate hikes, inflation continues to gradually moderate and growth remains resilient.

After a nice move higher in markets, some bouts of volatility remain likely. However, we believe there are compelling opportunities still ahead of us, in both the equity and bond markets. Read more in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Stocks continued their march higher last week, adding to 2023's impressive gain that now has the S&P 500 within 6% of the all-time high. The run in the markets since May has largely been powered by rising optimism around the potential for a goldilocks scenario, in which economic conditions are neither too hot to prevent inflation from falling further, nor too cold to descend into recession.

In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we look at how recent trends in a variety of indicators stack up to prior periods leading up to and following the onset of a recession and share our take on what they might be signaling about the road ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Stocks and bonds jumped last week as investors cheered the sharp deceleration in inflation. Exactly one year from the inflation peak, headline CPI has been cut by more than two thirds, solidifying disinflation as the key theme for the economy and the markets this year. But with the S&P 500 already up 17% halfway through the year, is all the good news discounted? In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we discuss how the inflation path might look like ahead and where we see opportunities in today's market.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a strong first two quarters of 2023, markets stumbled a bit as we entered the first week of the third quarter. Nonetheless, in our view, the resilience in the labor market and services sectors makes the case for a recession or downturn in the near-term unlikely. The key for markets will likely be the direction of inflation, which we believe can continue to moderate further. Learn more in our Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Last week closed the books on the first half of 2023. Markets logged a strong performance year-to-date, though gains so far may have flown somewhat under the radar for some investors given the lingering scars of 2022. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we share perspectives on first half moves and what they signal for what may lay ahead in the second half.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

As we approach the mid-year point for 2023, there are a few notable trends to highlight. The markets overall continue to remain remarkably resilient, the Federal Reserve (and central banks globally) do not seem done yet with their rate-hiking cycles and the U.S. economy continues to defy calls for recession.

So, how may the economy, Fed and markets fare as we head to the back half of 2023? We highlight three key trends in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Sometimes doing nothing is actually quite something. Last week, the Fed did nothing with interest rates for the first time in more than a year, holding its policy rate steady after 10 straight hikes that totaled 5%. The question now becomes: is nothing from the Fed something for the market? In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we cover what you need to know about the Fed's pause and how we think it may play out for the economy and markets.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

At the brink of a bull market? This year's rally has been powered by AI enthusiasm and a resilient economy that has defied expectations for a slowdown in the face of higher interest rates. But central banks are taking notice. We offer our perspective on what makes this cycle unique and how it may play out in the second half of the year in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The idea of winning millions in a lottery or sweepstakes can be exciting. But, if it sounds too good to be true, it probably is. Legitimate lotteries and sweepstakes never ask for money upfront in exchange for a prize.

Long-distance relationships are becoming more commonplace in today's technologically advanced world. However, be wary of sending money, especially if you've never met in person. A scammer can prey on your emotional state and take advantage of your trust, generosity and goodwill.

This scam often involves an attorney searching for a beneficiary for his or her deceased client. Keep in mind that you should never pay money in order to get money. If you believe an offer is legitimate, discuss it with a family member or trusted friend to gain an outside perspective.

Last week closed the market's books on May and opened the curtain on the latest reading on the jobs market. The former was rather benign, with the S&P 500 logging a slight gain on the month. The latter, however, revealed more movement, with signs that employment conditions – while still quite healthy – are showing small signs of softening. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we offer three key takeaways from the latest jobs report and what they tell us about the potential path ahead for the economy and financial markets.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Scam artists have been known to impersonate loved ones, tricking older adults into providing financial information or sending money to an unknown account. Always ask questions that only your loved one can answer or call your family member back at a number that you know to be legitimate.

Happy Pride Month! This month we celebrate the accomplishments of the LGBTQ+ movement.

One way to protect yourself and your family is with estate planning, which helps eliminating conflict and confusion during stressful and emotional times. Watch this webinar live on June 21 at 3:00 CT or on-demand after.

Estate Planning: Securing Your Family's Future Wednesday, June 21, 2023 at 3:00 PM Central Daylight Time.

Do you know how to protect yourself from a cyberattack? To help spread awareness of these increasingly frequent attacks, I'll be posting some common types of financial scams as well as tips for how to avoid becoming a target for fraud in the coming days and weeks. Click this link to learn more:

Common types of fraud Common types of fraud

So proud of Jim and Stacey Weddle who were honored with the Beacon of Hope Award at the Affair to Remember Gala benefiting the Alzheimer’s Association. As former Managing Partner, Jim was instrumental in Edward Jones becoming the Alzheimer's Association's first national corporate partner for the Walk to End Alzheimer's — raising $39 million to and surpassing 100,000 associates and clients joining Walks in their communities since 2016.

While stock markets were broadly lower this past week, one sector stood out in that it was up over 2.0% for the week: information technology. In fact, the technology sector is one of just three sectors in the S&P 500 index that is positive year-to-date, along with consumer discretionary and communication services. We offer thoughts on the future outlook and considerations for long-term investors in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

With the growing prospects of an emerging slowdown, the fate of the economy will ultimately rest on the shoulders of the consumer. Those shoulders are quite broad, but not unrelenting, supporting our view that a recession this year is quite feasible, but would be mild. With a fresh batch of spending data released last week, this Weekly Market Wrap features our three key takeaways on the state of the consumer.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Last week investors received some encouraging news on inflation, which has been the number one concern over the past 18 months. But as inflation and Fed worries are starting to ease, debt ceiling concerns are poised to intensify. We offer our thoughts on the implications from the latest inflation reading and the debt ceiling standoff in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

This past week, markets were faced with a triple whammy of data: A Federal Reserve interest rate hike, ongoing turmoil in the banking system and a key jobs report for April. After raising interest rates by over 5.0% in just over a year, the Fed may finally be considering a pause in its rate-hiking campaign.

But the long and variable lags of interest rate increases may already be impacting the real economy. Nonetheless, while market volatility remains likely after a nice rally to the start of the year, we do see opportunities forming in both stocks and bonds as the extended bear market period yields to a potential bull market phase by year-end. Learn more on why we think this in our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The old market adage "sell in May and go away" may have a ring to it, but is it actually valid advice? Unsurprisingly, the answer is no. First, rhymes are not a reliable basis for portfolio decisions. And second, while vacation season is approaching, disciplined investing is a year-round event.

Although the saying relates to the (antiquated) notion that the stock market is weaker during the summer, we don't think seasonal portfolio changes are sensible. Nevertheless, as we turn the calendar to May, recent market moves and historical perspective are informative, offering some additional information on the outlook this year. Check out our latest Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Amid a flurry of corporate earnings releases and somewhat lackluster market activity last week, an important milestone went largely unnoticed. It was about six months ago that the S&P 500 dipped below 3600 (down 25% from its high), core inflation accelerated to a 40-year high at 6.6% and 10-year yields spiked to 4.25%.

Since then, markets have been climbing the proverbial wall of worry. We use the six-month milestone as an opportunity to reflect on what continues to support the rebound, what does not and share our thoughts on what the path ahead might look like in our Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Markets have been intensely focused on inflation over the past year, with the central bank policy response serving as the primary influence on stock and bond performance. So last week's release of the March inflation data offered a much-anticipated look at the latest trend in consumer prices, with markets breathing a small sigh of relief as the data signaled inflation remains on its gradual downward path.

In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we evaluate the most recent inflation and consumer spending trends and share our take on the implications for interest rates and the economy ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

As we head into the second quarter of 2023, the strength in the market this year so far has been notable. The S&P 500 is up about 6.0%, while the investment-grade bond market is up a healthy 4.5%. Keep in mind, though, that recent gains in stocks were largely driven by valuation expansion, as price-to-earnings ratios climbed higher.

Despite these healthy market gains, the path forward in the near term may be challenging, especially as the economy weakens and potentially enters a mild recession. Nonetheless, for long-term investors, there may be opportunities forming in the months ahead, particularly as markets start to look past the economic slowdown toward a recovery period. Read more in our Weekly Market Wrap.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Despite a spike in volatility and an almost 8% pullback from the year's high, equities ended the month of March and the first quarter higher. In our Weekly Market Wrap, we share thoughts on what's behind the market's resilience and discuss the key factors we'll be monitoring that have the potential to shape the narrative in the months ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

In just over two weeks, the uncertainty in the U.S. regional and global banking system has notably altered the path of financial markets and potentially the path of the Federal Reserve. For the Fed, it now has a balancing act to navigate – supporting the banking system with liquidity on one hand and battling inflation with interest rate increases on the other. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we discuss how we see opportunities forming in both the equity and bond space in the months ahead, beyond the more recent defensive posturing, as markets start to look past the economic downturn and toward a recovery ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Pressures on the banking sector were front and center last week, with headlines taking markets on a roller coaster ride. Though anxieties could persist for a while, we don’t think they'll morph into a structural crisis. Nevertheless, the pressure on the sector serves as a reminder that restrictive policy tends to uncover vulnerabilities that are lurking in the financial system.

At the anniversary of the Fed's most aggressive rate-hiking campaign in four decades, the recent bank troubles could potentially mark a turning point in monetary policy. In our weekly market update, we offer some perspective on what last week's developments mean for interest rates, the economy and the markets.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Renewed stock market swings continued last week in response to the latest developments in the outlook for Fed policy and employment conditions. A two-day congressional testimony from Fed Chair Jerome Powell dampened the market's mood as he emphasized the Fed's commitment to fighting inflation, signaling additional rate hikes ahead. The February jobs report grabbed the spotlight by week's end as markets looked to the latest employment trends for clues on the health of the economy.

There's plenty of information to digest, but it's important for investors to keep an eye on the broader view. While this current bear market has lasted longer than average, stocks are holding on to solid gains so far in 2023. We think the maturity of this bear market should also be viewed as progress toward what we expect will be a more sustainable recovery as we progress through the year. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we take a look at the current investment conditions, how they compare to history and what all of this tells us about the potential road ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a strong start to the year, market volatility seems to have returned. While we would expect market volatility to continue near-term, we are also watching for key inflection points that may indicate the early innings of a more sustainable rally ahead. We highlight three potential conditions that we believe would support better market returns longer term: 1) inflation moving lower, 2) the Federal Reserve pausing its rate-hiking cycle, and 3) earnings revisions bottoming.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a strong and steady rally to start 2023, markets have seen a return of volatility of late, including a decline last week spurred by renewed concerns over further interest rate hikes from the Fed. This is not a new issue, but it has prompted markets to reevaluate expectations for the economy ahead. No two cycles are exactly the same, but we do think there are noteworthy similarities between current conditions and those in the 2001 bear market.

In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we discuss the parallels with the past and what they suggest about what might lay ahead for investors.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Last week's jump in U.S. retail sales together with January's blowout jobs report paint the picture of an exceptionally strong economy. This backdrop is hardly what one would expect from an economy that is still navigating inflationary pressures and the most aggressive central bank tightening cycle in four decades. Which begs the question, does the Fed need to do more? The bond market appears to think so, but equities remain unfazed.

Given what we learned last week, we share our thoughts on how the market narrative might evolve and how some of the existing market tensions might be resolved.

• The market rally this year has been impressive. Most asset classes have participated, and the laggards of last year have particularly outperformed. These outperformers include technology, small-cap stocks, international equities, and even more speculative parts of the market.
• However, last week some uncertainty and volatility returned to markets. The S&P 500 was down over 1.0% on the week, its worst week of the year thus far. Treasury bond yields also moved higher, while oil prices climbed as well. Markets may be now approaching more of a fork in the road – does the rally continue or does it fade from here?

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a year in which nothing seemed to go investors' way, 2023 has, so far, been the polar opposite. Stocks are up handsomely while interest rates are down markedly. Last week brought a heavy dose of fresh information on each of the three central drivers for the market this year: the Fed, the jobs market and corporate profits. The outcome was another up week for the market, and while this recent rally is both welcome and reasonable, we don't think it should be viewed as confirmation that the coast is clear. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we share our thoughts on several popular market takes and what last week tells us about the path ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

Markets are off to a good start in 2023, but this comes on the heels of an extremely challenging 2022, in which both stocks and bonds logged declines for the year, something that hasn't occurred since 1994. There's good news for investors, however, as history shows down years for the stock market have typically been followed by healthy gains. While the clouds have not completely cleared, we think there are reasons to be optimistic. In our latest Weekly Market Wrap, we examine what often happens after down years for the market and what it could mean for the year ahead.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

After a positive start to the year in markets – in part driven by a better inflation narrative in the U.S. and globally – this past week investor sentiment seemed to turn somewhat lower. Equity markets turned negative mid-week after economic data pointed to a weaker U.S. consumer and manufacturing sector. Take a closer look at the rest of our key takeaways.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.

The U.S. headline CPI eased further, with December marking the smallest annual increase since October 2021. Paired with the November and October data, core inflation has now slowed for three consecutive months, suggesting that a pattern of disinflation is emerging. Price pressures remain too high for the Fed's comfort, but the gradual cooling likely sets the stage for the Fed to downshift further in the pace of rate hikes. Read our latest weekly market update for thoughts on what the recent data could mean for the markets and investment strategy.

Weekly market wrap A summary of last week's market highlights and economic news.