Crescent Equity Research

New statement tomorrow again bullish

SYS FY2025: Revenue +19%, net profit +48%, margins expanding.
91% revenue in USD, costs in PKR. That's the whole thesis.
Two acquisitions close out. Full impact hits FY2026.
5-year CAGR: 51%. This is a compounder.
$SYS

Now this is concerning

Avoid Cash Hoarding: Buffett warns that money loses value during war. He advises against holding "pieces of paper" (cash) or unproductive assets like gold/Bitcoin, as currency debasement is common.

​Productive Assets: Buy businesses with "economic moats"—companies that can raise prices to offset inflation and have a sustainable competitive advantage.

The "Noah Rule": "Predicting rain doesn't count; building arks does." He emphasizes being prepared with a portfolio of high-quality companies rather than trying to time the exact bottom

Buy the Fear: His classic mantra, "Be greedy when others are fearful," applies directly to war-driven sell-offs. He views market panic as an opportunity to buy "wonderful businesses at fair prices

KSE-100 down 5% and everyone's losing their mind 😅

I've seen COVID (-40%), PTI ousted (-25%), default fears (-30%). People who held through all of it? Up 200–400% on the other side.

The market has survived everything. It'll survive this too.

Don't panic sell. 📌

SAZEW — Rs 1626 (▼1.55%) → Speculative Buy
Sazgar makes 3-wheelers + EVs
Rising oil = EV demand accelerates as fuel costs bite
Domestic consumption play = less geopolitical exposure
Expensive price but strong growth narrative

MEBL — Holds Strong at #4
Islamic banking = no interest rate risk exposure
In geopolitical stress, people park money in banks
Deposit growth accelerates in uncertainty
Resilient across all scenarios

PSO — Rs 343.85 (▼2.20%) → Strong Buy
Oil distributor — volumes rise when economy needs fuel
Geopolitical stress = military + industrial fuel demand spikes
PSO has state backing + monopoly-like distribution
Rising oil = higher inventory value on books
Down 2.2% = market overreacting

2. OGDC — Rs 259.50 (▼2.30%) → Jumps to #2
State-owned, oil-linked, geopolitically shielded
Rising oil = direct earnings multiplier
Govt won't let OGDC fail — strategic national asset
2.3% dip = buy the fear
Pays regular dividends even in downturns

1. MARI — Rs 606.95 (▼1.77%) → NOW #1
Rising oil = direct revenue boost
Mari Energies is an upstream explorer — higher oil = higher realizations
Pakistan needs domestic energy security during geopolitical stress
Government will protect and prioritize domestic E&P companies
Dip of 1.77% on a rising oil day = serious mispricing