Kipkirui KE

[3/1, 7:31 PM] +254 791 752031: 👈 we go back to the post I did yesterday

Tuanze pamoja. Be keen. Otherwise k**a mathafu ilikulemea shule, I will try to be a good teacher 😃. Hakuna kulala my class. Sawa 😁

Kumbuka we have 21.6 Million registered voters and we assume 100% turn-out. Hypothetical case

Hapo kwa 21.6M, we have:

Kalenjin Rift - 2.4M (this is what Ruto starts with)
Luo Nyanza - 2.1M (this is what Raila starts with)
Kamba - 1.6M (this is what Kalonzo starts with)

Hapo total is 6.1M gone (remaining is 15.6M), Ruto has an advantage over Raila by 300k Votes.

Let's allocate the remaining 15.6M by Region (regardless of whether Kalojo joins Azimio or not)

1. Mt. Kenya-5.7M ( includes Nakuru&Laikipia)
Ruto (75%) = 4.3M
Raila (25%) = 1.4M

2. Coast-1.9M
Ruto (40%) = 764kM
Raila (60%) = 1.1M

3. Kisii Nyanza-931k
Ruto (30%) = 279K
Raila (70%) = 652K

4. Masaai/Samburu Land - 937K
Ruto (50%) = 468K
Raila (50%) = 468K

5. Nairobi-2.5M
Ruto (42%) = 1.1M
Raila (58%) = 1.4M

6. North Eastern-838K
Ruto (50%) = 419K
Raila (50%) = 419K

7. Turkana-235k
Ruto (70%) = 165K
Raila (30%) = 70K

8. Western Region-2.5M
Ruto (40%) = 1.0M
Raila (60%) = 1.5M

Scenario 1: Kalojo fails to Join Azimio

Tally the above and adding what Raila and Ruto are starting with in their backyard will give us:

William Ruto = 10.8M
Raila Odinga = 9.1M
Kalonzo = 1.6M

Scenario 2:

Kalonzo joining Azimio and plays 2nd will obviously lower the turn-out in Kambaland and about 35% will go the Hustler Nation way (hapo about 497k inatoka kwa Kalonzo)

Same scenario will decrease Raila's % in Mt. Kenya from the current 25% about 15% (obviously Mt. Kenya has no more motivation). Hapa another 600k votes disappears (either by joining Hustler or wakatae to vote). Haya assume half goes to Hustler and the other half ikatae to vote. That's 300k to the Hustler

Other regions remains unchanged.

Under Scenario 1, WSR would thus win almost 55%

27/02/2022

Chelsea🔥💙💙💙💙

C'MON Blues is Going too Sluaghter Liverpool🔥

24/02/2022

🔥

22/02/2022

#22/02/2022

21/02/2022

Good Morning🔆🔆🔆🔆

20/02/2022

19/02/2022

Prof🔥🔥🔥👇👇👇

18/02/2022

Damiano Just for fun

17/02/2022

Tif poll🔥🔥🔥

💛💛💛💛💛💛

15/02/2022

The recalibration of our business environment will democratise opportunities to actualise our country’s huge entrepreneurial potential. Kenya Kwanza will establish a just, supportive and affirmative regulatory regime that will facilitate businesses to comply and thrive.
British Councilor has Accepted the Botom Up economy modep.